Tech Slows as Commodities Collapse

SMH Climbs as XLU Fades – June 13, 2026

Semiconductors lead the sector rotation with a momentum score of +331.87, while utilities collapse to -43.04. Today’s session shows tech accelerating even as broader momentum breadth narrows sharply across commodities. Capital is rotating decisively away from defensive names and raw materials into high-momentum tech and AI plays-but the strength is slowing.

Sector ETF Trend Strength – Last 10 Days – June 13, 2026

Sector ETF Momentum Rankings

Rank	ETF	10-Day Strength	Today	Signal
1	SMH	+331.87	-0.41	Slowing
2	CHAT	+305.23	-1.10	Slowing
3	BUG	+267.34	-0.90	Slowing
4	XLK	+214.89	-1.11	Slowing
5	IGV	+166.85	-1.42	Slowing
6	ARTY	+61.37	-0.34	Slowing
7	XLV	+33.23	-5.70	Weakening
8	BLOK	+10.42	-2.23	Slowing
9	DRIV	+9.79	-2.71	Slowing
10	SHLD	+9.63	-0.46	Slowing
11	XLI	+2.90	-0.85	Weakening
12	XLF	+1.89	+1.20	Accelerating
13	VCR	+0.23	-0.91	Slowing
14	NUKZ	-1.62	-2.22	Downtrend
15	XLRE	-2.17	+0.71	Reversal
16	XLB	-3.14	-0.08	Neutral
17	XBI	-3.63	-0.03	Neutral
18	XLY	-3.67	-1.85	Downtrend
19	GRID	-9.16	-1.73	Downtrend
20	XLE	-11.00	-1.77	Downtrend
21	PHO	-11.54	+2.01	Reversal
22	XLP	-11.65	+0.16	Reversal
23	IFRA	-14.34	+0.06	Reversal
24	XOP	-23.65	-3.57	Downtrend
25	XLC	-26.42	-4.88	Downtrend
26	XLU	-43.04	+0.01	Reversal

Tech dominance continues to define the sector landscape, but momentum breadth is contracting sharply. SMH, CHAT, and BUG remain at the top with extreme momentum scores-but all three registered negative daily signals. Every tech leader slowed today. That’s the first real friction in this tape. XLF (Financials) is the sole positive accelerator, showing genuine strength alongside its weak nine-day score of +1.89. Four sectors reversed course after losses: PHO, XLP, IFRA, and XLU. The reversals matter more than the score-they suggest value hunters entering positions that had been left behind.

Commodity ETF Momentum Rankings

Commodity ETF Trend Strength June 13, 2026

Commodity ETF Trend Strength – Last 10 Days – June 13, 2026

Rank	ETF	10-Day Strength	Today	Signal
1	UNG	+106.23	-0.44	Slowing
2	CPER	+28.07	-0.94	Slowing
3	DBB	+14.46	-1.02	Slowing
4	COPX	+11.27	-2.71	Slowing
5	SLX	+9.16	-0.88	Slowing
6	PHO	-11.54	+2.01	Reversal
7	SOYB	-8.93	-3.03	Downtrend
8	SETM	-14.57	-4.84	Downtrend
9	CANE	-32.66	-5.88	Downtrend
10	WEAT	-38.96	-8.99	Downtrend
11	URNM	-40.95	-4.08	Downtrend
12	CORN	-45.69	-9.11	Downtrend
13	USO	-60.23	-10.32	Downtrend
14	GDX	-64.41	-12.50	Downtrend
15	GLD	-64.62	-10.11	Downtrend
16	PLTM	-64.99	-13.25	Downtrend
17	SIL	-65.54	-14.37	Downtrend
18	SLV	-69.17	-15.03	Downtrend
19	LIT	-70.90	-12.03	Downtrend
20	REMX	-106.87	-16.31	Downtrend
21	URA	-155.84	-21.72	Downtrend
22	IBIT	-125.95	-25.01	Downtrend

Commodities are in full retreat. Only one ETF-UNG (natural gas)-maintains positive momentum with a score of +106.23, yet it too is slowing with a daily signal of -0.44. Beyond that, the commodity space offers nothing but downtrends and pain. Precious metals, agricultural products, lithium, uranium: all negative across the board. IBIT, URA, and REMX register the worst scores at -125.95, -155.84, and -106.87 respectively. PHO showed reversal energy with its +2.01 daily contribution despite the negative nine-day score-a small signal that money might be testing positions again in water assets.

Market Context & Interpretation

Capital allocation is speaking clearly: risk-on flows into semiconductors, AI, and software while defense-utilities, energy, staples-remains punished. I’ve been tracking this pattern for two weeks now, and today marks the first moment where I noticed the momentum leaders showing fatigue without losing their position. That’s important context. Tech is still winning; it’s just not accelerating anymore.

Financials stand alone as an accelerator, suggesting the market is pricing in a particular scenario: sustained interest rate structure without imminent cuts. XLF’s positive momentum score on a day when most leaders stalled carries more weight than its absolute nine-day ranking suggests. When a marginal player turns positive while winners slow, it often implies rotation readiness rather than reversal.

Commodities tell a different story. The breadth here is toxic. Eighty-six percent of commodity ETFs carry negative momentum, and the laggards are moving down hard. Gold, silver, uranium miners all declining together signals that institutional positioning has rotated away from hedge assets entirely. This speaks to confidence in equity momentum or conviction that inflation pressure is cooling. Either way, the commodity complex offers no defensive cover today.

Key ETFs to Watch

Top Momentum Leaders: SMH, CHAT, and BUG remain the three strongest across both sectors and commodities. All are showing identical signals: massive positive nine-day scores with slowing daily contribution. Anyone watching rotation should monitor whether tomorrow brings another day of negative closes. A second day of slowing from SMH would shift perception from consolidation to early warning.

Reversals Worth Monitoring: PHO flipped positive today with its strongest daily score (+2.01), yet carries severe negative momentum over nine days. XLP, IFRA, and XLU all show the same pattern-long weakness, sudden uptick. If these hold above water tomorrow, they signal the end of the decline phase in defensive sectors. That would be meaningful.

Persistent Weakness: XLC and XLE remain in clean downtrends with no hint of reversal. IBIT (-125.95) and URA (-155.84) offer no signals of capitulation-just relentless downward momentum. These are not bottoms yet.

What to Watch Next

Tomorrow’s action in tech matters most. If SMH and CHAT hold above water while registering positive momentum scores, the tape extends higher. If they slip again, the fatigue becomes a pattern. For commodity traders, any reversal in PHO, XLP, or IFRA that repeats its pattern tomorrow opens the possibility of value accumulation in defensive assets. Until then, trend momentum remains clear: risk-on and slowing, defensive and reversing, commodities and collapsing.

Watch for the tech signals to flip from slowing to weakening. That’s your early warning sign. Reversals in defensive sectors that hold over two sessions suggest institutional rebalancing has begun. Until both conditions flip, the tape structure remains intact.

Disclaimer: This is a personal trade journal documenting observed momentum signals and sector rotation patterns. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an offer to participate in any transaction. ETF momentum data reflects historical patterns and does not predict future performance. Readers are responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial advisor before taking any action based on this analysis.

Author Disclosure: The author of this analysis may hold or may have held positions in ETF-related instruments, derivatives, or underlying securities at the time of publication. This analysis reflects personal market observation and documentation only. Past positions do not guarantee current holdings, and the author’s exposure to these markets may change without notice. This material is not a trading recommendation.

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