XLE – State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF

ETF

Equity Energy | Inception: 1998-12-16

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$63.64
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+21.62%
Signal Edge
Strong positive edge across 1 signals – signal has a clear statistical advantage
56.3
Trend Strength (ADX)
Strong trend – directional signals reliable
Options Signals
6%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
22% / 78%
Call / Put Flow
Bearish positioning – put premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
17.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$57.68
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
30d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+2.22%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+5.86%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+10.33%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
–
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

XLE shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest XLE Reports

XLE Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $63.64  ·  ATR14: $1.85

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

XLE shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 9d Strength: 0.79 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX) 56.3 – Strong ADX38: 42.3
Volatility (HV30) 21.3% – Calm HV90: 24.1% | HV180: 23.2%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance 1.58 ATR ↓ EMA21: $60.14
GD200 Extension 9.8 ATR – Extended GD20: 3.0 | GD50: 5.8 | GD100: 5.5
🚀 Momentum Accelerating
Upward momentum active for 9 days and still gaining strength (current: 0.79). Trend is building, not fading.
💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 56.3 (Strong)
A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 42.3. Trend-following has clear edge here.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 21.3% | HV90: 24.1% | HV180: 23.2%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $57.51 above GD200 $53.90 by 6.69%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
📉 EMA21 – Gap Narrowing
Price is 1.58 ATR from the EMA21 ($60.14) but the distance is shrinking.
📏 Extended Move
9.8 ATR from the 200-day SMA. The trend may be maturing. Disciplined stop management becomes increasingly important.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $60.29 (3.0 ATR) | GD50: $57.51 (5.8 ATR) | GD100: $57.71 (5.5 ATR) | GD200: $53.90 (9.8 ATR). ATR14: $1.85.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -7.33 -0.28 1.52 2.34 -12.44 -1.68 8.77 -8.11 5.55 4.28 5.73 5.70 16.05
2011 6.38 5.65 3.48 0.61 -2.90 0.11 0.51 -10.09 -14.11 23.34 5.05 -1.92 0.54
2012 -0.51 5.51 -5.09 -1.67 -11.94 6.98 4.89 2.20 3.45 -2.52 -1.65 1.06 0.52
2013 5.96 -0.49 1.95 -1.11 4.48 -3.67 4.51 -2.61 0.90 3.54 0.42 2.32 21.25
2014 -4.44 7.03 2.26 4.63 1.90 5.16 -3.52 3.02 -7.05 -1.52 -7.23 -1.17 -9.27
2015 -5.00 1.49 -1.13 6.60 -5.41 -3.88 -6.50 -2.19 -4.51 10.94 -2.30 -12.02 -24.15
2016 -3.47 -1.15 6.60 10.55 -0.83 2.02 -1.78 5.14 3.37 -2.75 8.45 0.95 24.91
2017 -4.29 -1.35 -4.00 -2.78 -3.27 -1.41 0.68 -5.46 7.71 -0.80 0.61 3.70 -5.13
2018 1.91 -11.74 1.16 11.73 3.63 -0.58 T
3.07 		-2.12 T
1.97 		-12.54 -2.39 -15.14 -21.92
2019 T
9.06 		0.55 -0.50 -1.31 -9.29 T
7.04 		-1.68 -6.20 T
3.50 		0.22 T
-0.66 		T
1.95 		2.67
2020 -11.79 -14.16 -38.30 T
37.58 		8.12 -4.03 -2.44 T
-1.41 		-15.42 -1.07 T
23.77 		2.63 -37.44
2021 3.58 21.59 -0.69 -1.83 T
2.88 		-0.65 -9.89 -1.26 T
9.23 		6.74 -6.62 2.76 46.21
2022 T
15.20 		3.38 7.22 -2.48 14.21 -19.31 8.05 T
4.82 		-8.28 T
18.28 		0.31 -3.72 52.87
2023 T
6.55 		-52.54 -2.94 T
-1.67 		-9.01 4.68 7.52 2.12 -0.39 T
-3.84 		-0.48 T
-1.39 		-50.33
2024 T
-1.57 		3.29 8.34 -1.67 1.27 0.43 T
2.20 		T
0.60 		-1.36 T
-1.35 		8.52 -9.37 1.09
2025 T
1.13 		3.19 T
6.41 		-14.36 0.90 2.68 2.05 T
5.61 		-1.30 -1.35 T
2.62 		-2.08 3.18
2026 T
11.83 		11.73 7.40 1.15 T
-4.35 		-7.31 T
12.76 		8.25 39.41

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for XLE:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
17.07.26 $57.68 30d +2.22% +5.86% +10.33% +0%
19.05.26 $61.29 3d -7.02% -7.02% -7.02% +0%
05.01.26 $46.89 58d +1.71% +6.74% +14.63% +23.01%
10.11.25 $45.17 12d -1.03% +0.54% +0.03% +0%
26.08.25 $44.12 27d -0.74% +1.08% +1.43% +4.18%
19.03.25 $46.41 23d +1.26% -6.56% -6.56% -3.6%
16.01.25 $46.62 10d -3.3% -2.15% -2.4% -6.97%
02.10.24 $45.36 28d -1.04% -0.72% +3.37% +0.31%
26.08.24 $45.60 9d -2.4% -2.4% +2.53% +0%
17.07.24 $46.61 6d -0.43% -2.66% -3.08% +0%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for XLE: 21.62%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
10-15% 1 +12.34% +17.99% +15.44% +60.24% Hold
7-10% 3 +8.96% +9.89% +12.27% +23.23% Hold
3-5% 3 +4.05% +7.89% +7.58% +14.69% Hold
1-3% 7 +1.68% +2.99% +5.96% +4.54% Close
0-1% 2 +0.51% +1.16% +3.47% -1.34% Close
-1-0% 4 -0.44% +0.35% +1.67% +1.84% Neg
-3-1% 11 -1.72% -1.58% -0.75% -5.35% Neg
-5-3% 5 -3.76% -2.17% -0.01% -3.05% Neg
-10-7% 1 -7.02% -7.02% -7.02% +0% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 3% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 8.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
6%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
22% / 78%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into puts. This indicates net bearish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
-1,767,753.5
Negative GEX: market makers are short gamma. They sell dips and buy rallies, which amplifies moves and increases volatility.
GEX Flip Strike
$59.00 · 7.3%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$64.00 · 0.6%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$63.64
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

XLE GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

XLE GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 6% – options are historically cheap. Bearish flow (22% calls) supports buying downside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
✓ Profits from significant downside moves with limited maximum risk
✓ Cheap entry when IV-Rank is historically low
✓ Can be used as portfolio protection against existing long positions
Risks
✕ Time decay erodes value daily – timing the entry matters
✕ Needs a substantial move below the strike to be profitable
✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays above the strike
▶ FAQ: Long Put
What is a Long Put?

A Long Put gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying at the strike price before expiration. It is a bearish strategy with maximum loss limited to the premium paid. It is often used as a hedge against existing long positions.

When is buying puts most cost-effective?

Buying puts when IV-Rank is low means you are purchasing protection at below-average cost. Many traders fail to hedge when volatility is cheap and scramble to buy expensive puts when fear spikes. Buying puts proactively when IV is historically low is a disciplined risk management approach.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 6% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
▶ FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF

In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes companies that have been identified as Energy companies by the GICS®, including securities of companies from the following industries: oil, gas and consumable fuels; and energy equipment and services. It is non-diversified.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$37.88 B
Expense Ratio0.08%
Dividend Yield2.71%
Portfolio Turnover10%
YTD Return2,499.91%
3-Year Return20.30%
5-Year Return24.00%

Sector Allocation

Sector Weight
Energy 99%

Top 10 Holdings

Symbol Company Weight
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 23.87%
CVX CHEVRON CORP 17.44%
COP CONOCOPHILLIPS 7.07%
WMB WILLIAMS COMPANIES INC 4.28%
EOG EOG RESOURCES INC 4%
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORP 3.91%
MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP 3.81%
PSX PHILLIPS 66 3.78%
SLB SLB LTD 3.75%
KMI KINDER MORGAN INC CLASS P 3.54%

Frequently Asked Questions – State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.