IBIT is in a well-structured bull trend. All major signals are aligned: positive swing trend, rising momentum over 3 days, and trend strength confirmed by ADX at 76.8. This is the type of environment where trend-following strategies carry a structural edge.
What to watch
The trend is your friend here. As long as momentum strength continues to hold or rise, the path of least resistance remains higher. Manage the trade with a trailing stop rather than a fixed target.
IBIT is in a well-structured bull trend. All major signals are aligned: positive swing trend, rising momentum over 3 days, and trend strength confirmed by ADX at 76.8. This is the type of environment where trend-following strategies carry a structural edge.
What to watch
The trend is your friend here. As long as momentum strength continues to hold or rise, the path of least resistance remains higher. Manage the trade with a trailing stop rather than a fixed target.
Indicator
Signal
Detail
Swing Trend
▲ Long
Primary directional bias
Momentum
▲ Up · 3d
Strength: 1.33 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX)
76.8 – Strong
ADX38: 36.5
Volatility (HV30)
36.2% – Calm
HV90: 38.5% | HV180: 45.9%
Vola Compression
None
Normal range
MA Structure
Death Cross ✗
Stack: Partially aligned (1/3)
EMA21 Distance
2.23 ATR ↑
EMA21: $36.99
GD200 Extension
0.6 ATR – Normal
GD20: 6.6 | GD50: 7.4 | GD100: 4.2
🚀 Momentum Accelerating
Upward momentum active for 3 days and still gaining strength (current: 1.33). Trend is building, not fading.
💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 76.8 (Strong)
A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 36.5. Trend-following has clear edge here.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 36.2% | HV90: 38.5% | HV180: 45.9%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
💀 Death Cross – Long-term Bearish
Death Cross in place. GD50 $36.28 below GD200 $43.00. Long-term structure remains bearish. MA stack: Partially aligned (1/3).
📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating
Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($36.99) with 2.23 ATR distance and growing.
T
A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.
Trendchange Signal History
The last 10 Trendchange signals for IBIT:
Date
Entry Price
Days Held
+10d
+20d
+30d
+60d
27.07.26
$36.77
7d
+0.08%
+18.79%
+0%
+0%
10.04.26
$41.56
36d
+5.99%
+9.24%
+7.84%
+5.1%
08.01.26
$51.52
16d
-1.65%
-1.65%
-1.65%
-13%
03.10.25
$69.81
8d
-5.73%
-5.73%
-5.73%
-27.42%
21.04.25
$49.72
51d
+11%
+19.07%
+19.39%
+32.36%
17.01.25
$59.62
11d
-3.2%
-5.85%
-5.85%
+1.31%
20.09.24
$35.80
49d
-3.02%
+6.28%
+11.12%
+56.79%
26.08.24
$36.09
2d
-7.54%
-0.14%
+0%
+0%
22.07.24
$38.93
3d
-8.53%
-8.53%
-14.28%
+0%
20.05.24
$39.97
10d
-1.33%
-3.8%
-3.8%
-10.91%
Signal Statistics – Historical Edge
Calculated edge for IBIT: 29.81%
Range
N
10d
20d
30d
60d
Signal
10-15%
1
+11%
+19.07%
+19.39%
+32.36%
Hold
5-7%
1
+5.99%
+9.24%
+7.84%
+5.1%
Close
0-1%
1
+0.08%
+18.79%
+0%
+0%
Close
-3-1%
2
-1.49%
-2.73%
-2.73%
-11.96%
Neg
-5-3%
2
-3.11%
+0.22%
+2.63%
+29.05%
Neg
-7-5%
1
-5.73%
-5.73%
-5.73%
-27.42%
Neg
-10-7%
2
-8.03%
-4.33%
-7.14%
+0%
Neg
Exit Rules:
Stoploss: -10% |
Close if below 7% after 10 days
Signal data as of August 21, 2026
HIGH ALERT
● Neutral
Strength: 15.5
Options Metrics
IV-Rank (52w)
99%
Top 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically expensive. Conditions favor premium sellers (Short Put, Iron Condor).
Call / Put Flow
83%
/ 17%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
8,125,850.4
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$37.00 · 15.3%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$38.00 · 13%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$43.68
Last traded price at signal calculation time
Gamma Exposure Timeline
Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.
Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.
Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our
options strategy guides →
Strategy Setups – You Decide
Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions.
Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.
IV-Rank at 99% puts premium income at historically elevated levels. Bullish call flow at 83% and positive GEX provide a supportive backdrop for selling downside risk.
Advantages
✓Collects premium upfront – profitable if stock stays above the strike at expiration
✓High IV-Rank means the premium received is historically above average
✓Can be structured as a cash-secured put to potentially acquire stock at a discount
Risks
✕Loss increases sharply if the stock falls well below the strike price
✕Requires significant capital to be held in reserve (cash-secured)
✕Early assignment risk increases near ex-dividend dates
▶ FAQ: Short Put
What is a Short Put strategy?
A Short Put involves selling a put option and collecting the premium upfront. The seller profits if the underlying stays above the strike price at expiration. Maximum profit is the premium received; maximum loss occurs if the stock goes to zero. It expresses a neutral to bullish view on the underlying.
When is a Short Put the right strategy?
A Short Put works best when implied volatility is high (making the premium large), the trader is neutral to bullish on the underlying, and they are comfortable potentially owning the stock at the strike price. High IV-Rank means the premium collected is historically generous.
How does IV-Rank affect a Short Put?
IV-Rank above 80% means implied volatility is in the top 20% of its historical range. For premium sellers, this is favorable - the option premium collected is rich relative to typical conditions. As IV mean-reverts lower, the option loses value faster, benefiting the seller.
What is the risk of selling puts?
The main risk is that the stock falls sharply below the strike price. The loss equals (strike price − stock price − premium received) × 100 per contract. Many traders sell cash-secured puts, setting aside capital to buy the stock if assigned.
IV-Rank at 99% – selling premium on both sides captures elevated vol without a strong directional view. The defined-risk structure suits the current high-IV environment.
Advantages
✓Profits from time decay on both sides – no need to pick a direction
✓Defined maximum risk: loss is always capped at the spread width
✓Benefits from IV contraction (vol crush) after the trade is placed
Risks
✕Maximum profit is limited to the net premium collected
✕A large move in either direction results in maximum loss on one side
✕Requires the underlying to stay within a specific price range
▶ FAQ: Iron Condor
What is an Iron Condor?
An Iron Condor combines a short put spread and a short call spread on the same underlying. The trader collects premium from both sides and profits if the underlying stays between the two short strikes at expiration. It is a defined-risk, range-bound strategy suited to high IV environments.
When does an Iron Condor work best?
Iron Condors excel when IV is high, the underlying is range-bound or consolidating, and flow is neutral. High IV-Rank increases the premium collected on both spreads, improving the risk/reward of the trade.
What is the maximum risk on an Iron Condor?
The maximum loss equals the width of the wider spread minus the net premium received. For example, if the spreads are $5 wide and you collect $1.50 net premium, the max loss is $3.50 per spread.
How does IV crush benefit an Iron Condor?
IV crush refers to the rapid decline in implied volatility after a catalyst. If an Iron Condor is placed before a high-IV event and IV drops afterward, both options lose value quickly - benefiting the premium seller. Time decay also works in favor of the Iron Condor seller.
All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.
The shares are intended to constitute a simple means of making an investment similar to an investment in bitcoin rather than by acquiring, holding and trading bitcoin directly on a peer-to-peer or other basis or via a digital asset exchange. The fund is non-diversified.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) providing diversified exposure to a basket of securities. ETFs trade on major stock exchanges like individual stocks, combining diversification with intraday flexibility.
IBIT currently manages approximately $53.05B in assets. Larger funds typically benefit from higher liquidity and tighter bid-ask spreads, reducing trading costs.
IBIT currently has a distribution yield of 0.00%. ETF distributions are typically paid monthly or quarterly and are passed through from income generated by the underlying holdings.
IBIT has an annual expense ratio (TER) of 0.25%. This fee is deducted directly from the fund's assets. Lower expense ratios are generally preferable, as costs compound over time. The portfolio turnover rate is 0%, reflecting how frequently holdings are replaced within a year.
The momentum analysis tracks the daily rate of change of IBIT's smoothed price average. A consistently positive and rising value indicates the ETF's trend is gaining strength. A declining or negative value suggests the trend is weakening.
All data on this page is updated once per trading day after the US market closes, using official end-of-day prices.
Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only.
This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
See our full Disclaimer.
