Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+12.11%
Signal Edge
Moderate edge across 1 signals – signal performs above random, not exceptional
39.4
Trend Strength (ADX)
Strong trend – directional signals reliable
Options Signals
27%
IV-Rank (52w)
IV in normal range – no clear vol edge
48% / 52%
Call / Put Flow
Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced
Last Trendchange Signal
27.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$36.77
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
4d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
-3.07%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
-3.07%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
-3.07%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
-3.07%
+60d
Return after 60 trading days
Trend Overview
Mixed Signals – CautionComposite Score: +1 / 7
IBIT shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.
What to watch
This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.
IBIT Price Chart
Technical Trend Analysis
As of 07.10.2026 ·
Close: $47.21 ·
ATR14: $2.84
Mixed Signals – CautionComposite Score: +1 / 7
IBIT shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.
What to watch
This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.
Indicator
Signal
Detail
Swing Trend
▲ Long
Primary directional bias
Momentum
▲ Up · 12d
Strength: 0.34 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX)
39.4 – Strong
ADX38: 45.1
Volatility (HV30)
39.8% – Calm
HV90: 40.7% | HV180: 45.8%
Vola Compression
None
Normal range
MA Structure
Golden Cross ✓
Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance
0.53 ATR ↓
EMA21: $46.00
GD200 Extension
4.5 ATR – Normal
GD20: 0.5 | GD50: 3.8 | GD100: 6.3
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 12 days but strength is declining (0.34). The trend is intact but losing energy.
💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 39.4 (Strong)
A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 45.1. Trend-following has clear edge here.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 39.8% | HV90: 40.7% | HV180: 45.8%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $42.67 above GD200 $41.91 by 1.81%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
📉 EMA21 – Gap Narrowing
Price is 0.53 ATR from the EMA21 ($46.00) but the distance is shrinking.
T
A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.
IBIT - Trendchange Chart
Trendchange Signal History
The last 10 Trendchange signals for IBIT:
Date
Entry Price
Days Held
+10d
+20d
+30d
+60d
27.07.26
$36.77
4d
-3.07%
-3.07%
-3.07%
-3.07%
10.04.26
$41.56
36d
+5.99%
+9.24%
+7.84%
+7.84%
08.01.26
$51.52
16d
-1.65%
-1.65%
-1.65%
-1.65%
03.10.25
$69.81
8d
-5.73%
-5.73%
-5.73%
-5.73%
21.04.25
$49.72
45d
+11%
+19.07%
+19.39%
+19.95%
17.01.25
$59.62
8d
-3.2%
-5.85%
-5.85%
-5.85%
20.09.24
$35.80
20d
-3.02%
-3.13%
-3.13%
-3.13%
26.08.24
$36.09
2d
-1.97%
-1.97%
+0%
+0%
22.07.24
$38.93
3d
-8.53%
-8.53%
-8.53%
+0%
20.05.24
$39.97
10d
-1.33%
-3.8%
-3.8%
-3.8%
Signal Statistics - Historical Edge
Calculated edge for IBIT: 12.11%
Range
N
10d
20d
30d
60d
Signal
10-15%
1
+11%
+19.07%
+19.39%
+19.95%
Hold
5-7%
1
+5.99%
+9.24%
+7.84%
+7.84%
Close
-3-1%
3
-1.65%
-2.47%
-1.82%
-1.82%
Neg
-5-3%
3
-3.1%
-4.02%
-4.02%
-4.02%
Neg
-7-5%
1
-5.73%
-5.73%
-5.73%
-5.73%
Neg
-10-7%
1
-8.53%
-8.53%
-8.53%
+0%
Neg
Exit Rules:
Stoploss: -10% |
Close if below 7% after 10 days
Signal data as of October 7, 2026
HIGH ALERT
● Neutral
Strength: 9.7
Options Metrics
IV-Rank (52w)
27%
IV is in its normal historical range – no structural vol edge in either direction.
Call / Put Flow
48%
/ 52%
Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.
GEX (Mio.)
10,451,508.9
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$30.00 · 36.2%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$47.50 · 1%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$47.05
Last traded price at signal calculation time
Gamma Exposure Timeline
Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.
Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.
Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our
options strategy guides →
The shares are intended to constitute a simple means of making an investment similar to an investment in bitcoin rather than by acquiring, holding and trading bitcoin directly on a peer-to-peer or other basis or via a digital asset exchange. The fund is non-diversified.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is an exchange-traded fund focused on the Digital Assets sector, managing $53.05B in assets. The fund has been trading since 2024-01-05. The shares are intended to constitute a simple means of making an investment similar to an investment in bitcoin rather than by acquiring, holding and trading bitcoin directly on a peer-to-peer or other basis or via a di...
IBIT currently manages $53.05B in assets. The annual expense ratio (TER) is 0.25%, deducted directly from fund assets. Portfolio turnover stands at 0%, reflecting how frequently holdings are replaced within a year. Lower expense ratios compound favorably over time – a 0.08% TER on a 10-year holding period adds up to meaningfully less drag than a 0.5% fund.
IBIT currently distributes a yield of 0.00%. ETF distributions are typically passed through from dividends and interest generated by the underlying holdings. The actual payout frequency depends on the fund structure – most sector ETFs distribute quarterly.
Reported performance for IBIT: year-to-date -22.37%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Returns reflect price changes only and may differ from total return figures that include distributions.
As of the most recent session, IBIT closed at $47.21. The swing trend is positive with ADX at 39.4 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 12 trading days. A Golden Cross is in place All data is updated once per trading day after the US market closes.
The most recent Trendchange signal for IBIT fired on 27.07.26 at $36.77. The position has been open for 4 trading days. Performance after 10 days: -3.07%. The system's historical edge across 10 tracked signals is +12.11%. Trendchange signals are based on proprietary moving average crossover logic applied to end-of-day price data.
Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only.
This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
See our full Disclaimer.
