XLP – State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF

ETF

Consumer Defensive | Inception: 1998-12-16

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$85.99
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+1.59%
Signal Edge
Slim positive edge across 4 signals – treat with caution
3.5
Trend Strength (ADX)
Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable
Options Signals
8%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
59% / 41%
Call / Put Flow
Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced
Last Trendchange Signal
07.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$84.86
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
10d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+10d
Not yet reached
+20d
Not yet reached
-0.21%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: +3 / 7

XLP has been in a volatility compression for 35 consecutive sessions. Price is coiling and the range is contracting. This kind of structure typically resolves with an expansion in one direction – and the underlying trend bias is still positive, which tilts the probability toward an upside resolution. The key question is not if the move happens, but when and which way.

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest XLP Reports

XLP Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $85.99  ·  ATR14: $1.52

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: +3 / 7

XLP has been in a volatility compression for 35 consecutive sessions. Price is coiling and the range is contracting. This kind of structure typically resolves with an expansion in one direction – and the underlying trend bias is still positive, which tilts the probability toward an upside resolution. The key question is not if the move happens, but when and which way.

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 6d Strength: 0.04 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 3.5 – Weak ADX38: 16.7
Volatility (HV30) 17.8% – Rising HV90: 16.4% | HV180: 15.3%
Vola Compression 35 days active Potential breakout building
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance ~0 ATR – Near line EMA21: $84.79
GD200 Extension 2.5 ATR – Normal GD20: 0.3 | GD50: 0.9 | GD100: 1.5
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 6 days but strength is declining (0.04). The trend is intact but losing energy.
⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 3.5 (Weak)
Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 16.7. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.
🔺 Volatility Rising
HV30: 17.8% | HV90: 16.4% | HV180: 15.3%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.
🗜️ Volatility Compression – 35 Days Active
Price has been compressing for 35 sessions. The longer the compression, the more powerful the potential breakout.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $84.77 above GD200 $82.88 by 2.29%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.
🎯 EMA21 – Bounce Confirmed
Price touched the EMA21 at $84.79 and is pulling away with rising distance. Classic continuation setup.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $85.55 (0.3 ATR) | GD50: $84.77 (0.9 ATR) | GD100: $84.03 (1.5 ATR) | GD200: $82.88 (2.5 ATR). ATR14: $1.52.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -1.76 2.39 2.61 -1.71 -5.18 -3.00 5.60 -2.97 3.45 3.01 -1.15 1.84 9.90
2011 -1.60 2.17 1.46 4.82 2.38 -2.35 -2.03 0.55 -3.64 6.19 4.59 2.01 10.70
2012 -1.32 3.01 2.71 -0.49 -1.43 4.86 1.89 0.03 0.45 -1.86 1.78 -2.79 7.52
2013 2.99 2.48 4.06 2.99 -2.08 -2.03 3.58 -5.32 0.81 5.77 1.18 0.47 20.06
2014 -3.98 6.19 2.23 2.91 1.90 -0.69 -3.53 3.82 -0.09 4.19 5.14 -1.00 14.23
2015 -0.68 2.92 -2.71 -0.88 -0.04 -2.44 4.36 -6.09 1.83 5.70 -1.51 1.30 4.43
2016 1.83 -0.02 3.21 -2.46 -0.45 3.67 -0.35 -0.69 -2.19 -0.13 -3.79 2.91 3.73
2017 1.33 5.60 -1.41 1.27 3.04 -3.78 0.78 -1.00 -1.80 -1.47 5.24 1.25 9.61
2018 2.26 -7.23 -1.24 -1.73 -0.70 3.77 4.57 1.24 0.41 T
2.08
1.55 -9.82 -10.19
2019 T
5.76
2.10 3.45 3.20 -2.44 T
3.13
1.73 2.53 0.57 T
-0.16
1.39 1.35 24.76
2020 1.12 -8.21 -10.84 T
8.80
2.79 T
-1.68
T
6.83
4.88 -2.36 T
-3.41
T
5.79
-0.07 7.95
2021 -3.94 -1.33 T
6.83
2.35 0.94 -0.85 T
2.51
1.47 -5.23 T
3.23
-1.50 10.24 15.57
2022 -1.47 -1.32 T
1.92
1.29 -2.81 -1.80 T
1.73
-3.06 -9.24 T
7.16
6.45 -2.98 -3.31
2023 -0.71 -3.09 T
4.49
3.12 -6.23 2.15 1.34 -3.42 -4.62 -0.70 T
4.23
1.52 -3.02
2024 0.11 0.05 2.55 T
-0.33
3.09 -0.94 T
2.38
5.01 -0.11 -3.14 T
3.83
-5.43 7.92
2025 0.78 T
4.78
-2.22 T
0.05
2.11 -2.30 T
-2.68
T
0.77
-2.83 T
-2.52
T
4.88
-2.03 -0.88
2026 7.49 6.52 -7.59 3.50 T
-1.50
T
1.27
T
2.10
1.33 10.68

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for XLP:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
07.07.26 $84.86 10d +0% +0% -0.21% +0%
29.06.26 $84.37 2d +0.02% +0% +0% +0%
11.06.26 $85.27 2d -2.31% +0% +0% +0%
04.05.26 $83.54 22d +1.32% +1.07% +2.32% +0%
26.11.25 $78.91 34d -0.87% -1.31% -1.31% +7.96%
27.10.25 $79.22 4d +0% +0% -1.78% +0%
07.08.25 $82.24 20d +1.19% -2.08% -2.08% -3.59%
03.07.25 $82.18 6d -1.65% -1.65% -0.35% +0%
17.04.25 $81.87 15d -0.92% -0.89% +1.17% +0.45%
10.02.25 $79.84 27d +3.24% +3.56% +2.04% +1.34%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for XLP: 1.59%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
3-5% 4 +3.65% +4.28% +4.13% +7.17% Close
1-3% 13 +1.46% +2.09% +3.04% +5.2% Hold
0-1% 6 +0.41% +2.22% +2.4% +1.24% Close
-1-0% 9 -0.73% -0.83% +0.38% +1.62% Neg
-3-1% 6 -1.99% -0.81% +0.13% +0.92% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

MEDIUM ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 5.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
8%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
59% / 41%
Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.
GEX (Mio.)
-26,996,915.9
Negative GEX: market makers are short gamma. They sell dips and buy rallies, which amplifies moves and increases volatility.
GEX Flip Strike
$85.00 · 1.2%
GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.
Max Pain
$86.50 · 0.6%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$85.99
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

XLP GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

XLP GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 8% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF

In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes companies that have been identified as Consumer Staples companies by the GICS®. It is non-diversified.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$17.56 B
Expense Ratio0.08%
Dividend Yield2.45%
Portfolio Turnover8%
YTD Return1,586.08%
3-Year Return6.45%
5-Year Return6.17%

Sector Allocation

Sector Weight
Consumer Staples 99.4%

Top 10 Holdings

Symbol Company Weight
WMT WALMART INC 11.87%
COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP 9.53%
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 7.63%
KO COCA-COLA CO 6.47%
PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC 5.84%
MO ALTRIA GROUP INC 4.75%
PEP PEPSICO INC 4.63%
CL COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO 4.6%
MDLZ MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL INC CLASS A 4.37%
MNST MONSTER BEVERAGE CORP 3.47%

Frequently Asked Questions – State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.