PHO – Invesco Water Resources ETF

ETF

Natural Resources | Inception: 2005-12-06

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$72.19
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+5.16%
Signal Edge
Slim positive edge across 1 signals – treat with caution
15.4
Trend Strength (ADX)
Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable
Options Signals
9%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
100% / 0%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
17.06.26
Date
Signal entry date
$66.77
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
34d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+3.16%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+4.73%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+4.81%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
+8.12%
+60d
Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Neutral – No Clear Edge Composite Score: 0 / 7

PHO is in a neutral phase with no clear directional edge. Trend and momentum indicators are roughly balanced between positive and negative readings.

What to watch

No actionable setup is present. The market is not offering a clean edge in either direction. Patience is the discipline here.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest PHO Reports

PHO Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $72.19  ·  ATR14: $1.43

Neutral – No Clear Edge Composite Score: 0 / 7

PHO is in a neutral phase with no clear directional edge. Trend and momentum indicators are roughly balanced between positive and negative readings.

What to watch

No actionable setup is present. The market is not offering a clean edge in either direction. Patience is the discipline here.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▼ Down · -1d Strength: 0.00 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 15.4 – Weak ADX38: 23.2
Volatility (HV30) 19.9% – Rising HV90: 16.9% | HV180: 16.6%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Death Cross ✗ Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance 0.56 ATR ↑ EMA21: $70.94
GD200 Extension 2.2 ATR – Normal GD20: 0.4 | GD50: 2.6 | GD100: 3.7
🟡 Downside Momentum Easing
Downward momentum has run -1 days but strength is decreasing (0.00). The move may be exhausting.
⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 15.4 (Weak)
Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 23.2. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.
🔺 Volatility Rising
HV30: 19.9% | HV90: 16.9% | HV180: 16.6%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.
💀 Death Cross – Long-term Bearish
Death Cross in place. GD50 $69.65 below GD200 $69.96. Long-term structure remains bearish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating
Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($70.94) with 0.56 ATR distance and growing.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $71.79 (0.4 ATR) | GD50: $69.65 (2.6 ATR) | GD100: $68.55 (3.7 ATR) | GD200: $69.96 (2.2 ATR). ATR14: $1.43.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -7.79 2.59 4.30 2.79 -11.55 -4.42 7.70 -10.66 8.33 4.58 2.78 5.23 10.96
2011 -0.11 -0.38 5.57 -0.80 -1.02 0.84 -6.04 -6.18 -10.30 19.41 3.71 -0.57 -11.79
2012 6.20 0.86 1.25 -3.49 -6.80 6.27 1.05 2.51 2.88 0.27 1.77 2.96 21.87
2013 3.76 0.91 2.38 -2.55 5.14 -3.71 3.63 -4.69 7.29 3.22 2.62 5.01 23.97
2014 -1.36 8.92 0.76 -3.48 0.74 2.28 -7.39 5.52 -5.63 6.02 0.16 0.91 0.49
2015 -5.16 2.25 -2.44 1.02 2.01 -3.06 -4.55 -6.65 -4.07 11.21 -4.23 -2.86 -15.24
2016 -5.13 2.25 5.27 3.59 -0.22 1.26 3.36 0.17 1.12 -3.79 6.65 -0.55 15.30
2017 2.14 2.68 -1.34 3.26 0.74 -0.73 0.50 -0.76 4.98 1.30 4.19 0.21 22.53
2018 2.98 -4.08 2.98 1.05 T
1.10 		-1.19 T
4.62 		1.12 0.92 -8.54 T
3.58 		-8.18 -6.45
2019 T
11.27 		7.32 0.95 1.02 -3.61 T
6.71 		0.55 1.27 2.04 T
2.41 		1.08 3.70 38.22
2020 1.28 -9.68 -15.71 T
17.55 		9.60 -0.59 T
7.57 		0.86 -0.69 T
2.39 		7.07 3.23 20.70
2021 0.87 2.57 0.73 4.62 1.33 0.71 5.11 4.05 -7.20 T
5.27 		-1.06 T
7.12 		33.29
2022 -11.43 -3.44 T
4.53 		-9.26 0.92 -5.39 T
11.13 		-4.55 -8.07 T
6.25 		6.27 -3.87 -13.38
2023 T
5.50 		-3.96 1.35 T
-1.07 		-0.15 7.43 2.83 -1.21 -7.19 -3.27 T
10.77 		6.03 20.06
2024 -1.85 T
5.95 		3.32 -2.59 T
2.46 		-1.25 T
9.14 		0.84 T
2.96 		-2.51 T
4.44 		-8.14 8.96
2025 T
4.71 		-0.87 -3.05 T
0.85 		4.13 3.56 -0.91 4.06 -0.12 T
-0.94 		1.81 T
-2.25 		7.76
2026 2.25 -0.22 -8.14 T
1.66 		-3.30 T
4.95 		1.87 1.40 1.86

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for PHO:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
17.06.26 $66.77 34d +3.16% +4.73% +4.81% +8.12%
21.04.26 $69.85 3d -1.98% -1.36% -1.36% +0%
05.12.25 $71.94 19d +0% -0.68% +0.99% -5.6%
06.10.25 $73.31 14d -0.23% -1.33% -1.33% -2.34%
24.04.25 $64.50 42d +1.41% +4.91% +7.44% +11.53%
31.01.25 $68.42 5d -0.48% -1.17% -1.17% -0.54%
07.11.24 $71.78 10d -3.18% -0.64% -1.73% -5.8%
18.09.24 $69.01 18d +1.45% +2.61% +0.84% +0%
16.07.24 $69.25 16d +0.49% -4.48% +0.72% +2.32%
03.05.24 $66.15 34d +3.4% -0.17% -0.17% +3.72%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for PHO: 5.16%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
7-10% 1 +7.34% +13.4% +9.78% +11.94% Hold
5-7% 3 +6.12% +7.77% +9.46% +20.02% Hold
3-5% 6 +3.81% +2.37% +4.15% +10.05% Hold
1-3% 13 +2.02% +2.89% +3.85% +5.59% Hold
0-1% 5 +0.58% -0.32% +2.05% +3.75% Close
-1-0% 5 -0.34% -0.05% -0.47% +3.44% Neg
-3-1% 5 -2.06% -1.27% -1.26% +0.76% Neg
-5-3% 2 -3.18% -1.91% -2.45% -8.79% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

MEDIUM ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 4.3

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
9%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
100% / 0%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
0.0
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
Max Pain
$45.00 · 37.7%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$72.19
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

PHO GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

PHO GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 9% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (100% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
✓ Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
✓ Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
✓ Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
✕ Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
✕ Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
▶ FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 9% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
▶ FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About Invesco Water Resources ETF

The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its total assets in securities that comprise the underlying index. The underlying index seeks to track the performance of companies that create products designed to conserve and purify water for homes, businesses and industries. The underlying index is designed to track the performance of U.S. exchange-listed companies that create products that conserve and purify water for homes, businesses, and industries. The fund is non-diversified.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$2.16 B
Expense Ratio0.59%
Dividend Yield0.57%
Portfolio Turnover0%
YTD Return387.95%
3-Year Return9.62%
5-Year Return6.70%

Sector Allocation

Sector Weight
Industrials 57.2%
Utilities 12.5%
Information Technology 12.4%
Materials 9%
Healthcare 7.1%

Top 10 Holdings

Symbol Company Weight
ECL ECOLAB INC 8.2%
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC 8.18%
WAT WATERS CORP 7.1%
AWK AMERICAN WATER WORKS CO INC 6.8%
ROP ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC 6.25%
IEX IDEX CORP 4.63%
CNM CORE & MAIN INC CLASS A 4.57%
ITRI ITRON INC 4.08%
WMS ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS INC 4.08%
XYL XYLEM INC 3.94%

Frequently Asked Questions – Invesco Water Resources ETF (PHO)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.