PHO – Invesco Water Resources ETF

ETF

Natural Resources | Inception: 2005-12-06

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$67.86
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▼ Short
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control
16.7
Trend Strength (ADX)
Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable
Options Signals
19%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
50% / 50%
Call / Put Flow
Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced
Last Trendchange Signal
17.06.26
Date
Signal entry date
$66.77
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
29d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+3.16%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+4.73%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+2.17%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
+2.17%
+60d
Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: +2 / 7

PHO has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $68.41, now trading below the line. The line that was acting as a floor has now become potential resistance. This shifts the short-term bias to cautious.

What to watch

Avoid aggressive long exposure until price reclaims the EMA21. A break and close below this level can lead to a deeper test of the 50-day SMA at $70.30.

Options Signal Highlight

PHO Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026  ·  Close: $67.86  ·  ATR14: $1.28

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: +2 / 7

PHO has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $68.41, now trading below the line. The line that was acting as a floor has now become potential resistance. This shifts the short-term bias to cautious.

What to watch

Avoid aggressive long exposure until price reclaims the EMA21. A break and close below this level can lead to a deeper test of the 50-day SMA at $70.30.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▼ Short Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 3d Strength: 0.10 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX) 16.7 – Weak ADX38: 28.4
Volatility (HV30) 12.3% – Calm HV90: 16.6% | HV180: 16.2%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Partially aligned (1/3)
EMA21 Distance -1.02 ATR ↑ EMA21: $68.41
GD200 Extension -2.0 ATR – Normal GD20: -0.6 | GD50: -2.7 | GD100: -1.1
🚀 Momentum Accelerating
Upward momentum active for 3 days and still gaining strength (current: 0.10). Trend is building, not fading.
⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 16.7 (Weak)
Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 28.4. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 12.3% | HV90: 16.6% | HV180: 16.2%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $70.30 above GD200 $69.61 by 0.99%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Partially aligned (1/3).
⚡ EMA21 – Fresh Cross
Price has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $68.41, now trading below. Often marks a near-term directional shift.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $68.40 (-0.6 ATR) | GD50: $70.30 (-2.7 ATR) | GD100: $68.86 (-1.1 ATR) | GD200: $69.61 (-2.0 ATR). ATR14: $1.28.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -7.79 2.59 4.30 2.79 -11.55 -4.42 7.70 -10.66 8.33 4.58 2.78 5.23 10.96
2011 -0.11 -0.38 5.57 -0.80 -1.02 0.84 -6.04 -6.18 -10.30 19.41 3.71 -0.57 -11.79
2012 6.20 0.86 1.25 -3.49 -6.80 6.27 1.05 2.51 2.88 0.27 1.77 2.96 21.87
2013 3.76 0.91 2.38 -2.55 5.14 -3.71 3.63 -4.69 7.29 3.22 2.62 5.01 23.97
2014 -1.36 8.92 0.76 -3.48 0.74 2.28 -7.39 5.52 -5.63 6.02 0.16 0.91 0.49
2015 -5.16 2.25 -2.44 1.02 2.01 -3.06 -4.55 -6.65 -4.07 11.21 -4.23 -2.86 -15.24
2016 -5.13 2.25 5.27 3.59 -0.22 1.26 3.36 0.17 1.12 -3.79 6.65 -0.55 15.30
2017 2.14 2.68 -1.34 3.26 0.74 -0.73 0.50 -0.76 4.98 1.30 4.19 0.21 22.53
2018 2.98 -4.08 2.98 1.05 T
1.10
-1.19 T
4.62
1.12 0.92 -8.54 T
3.58
-8.18 -6.45
2019 T
11.27
7.32 0.95 1.02 -3.61 T
6.71
0.55 1.27 2.04 T
2.41
1.08 3.70 38.22
2020 1.28 -9.68 -15.71 T
17.55
9.60 -0.59 T
7.57
0.86 -0.69 T
2.39
7.07 3.23 20.70
2021 0.87 2.57 0.73 4.62 1.33 0.71 5.11 4.05 -7.20 T
5.27
-1.06 T
7.12
33.29
2022 -11.43 -3.44 T
4.53
-9.26 0.92 -5.39 T
11.13
-4.55 -8.07 T
6.25
6.27 -3.87 -13.38
2023 T
5.50
-3.96 1.35 T
-1.07
-0.15 7.43 2.83 -1.21 -7.19 -3.27 T
10.77
6.03 20.06
2024 -1.85 T
5.95
3.32 -2.59 T
2.46
-1.25 T
9.14
0.84 T
2.96
-2.51 T
4.44
-8.14 8.96
2025 T
4.71
-0.87 -3.05 T
0.85
4.13 3.56 -0.91 4.06 -0.12 T
-0.94
1.81 T
-2.25
7.76
2026 2.25 -0.22 -8.14 T
1.66
-3.30 T
4.95
1.87 0.17 -3.27 0.13 -4.25

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

PHO - Trendchange Chart

StockBotty Trendchange PHO Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for PHO:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
17.06.26 $66.77 29d +3.16% +4.73% +2.17% +2.17%
21.04.26 $69.85 3d -1.98% -1.98% -1.98% +0%
05.12.25 $71.94 4d +0% +0% +0% +0%
06.10.25 $73.31 14d -0.23% -1.33% -1.33% -1.33%
24.04.25 $64.50 33d +1.41% +4.91% +7.44% +6.87%
31.01.25 $68.42 4d -0.88% -0.88% -0.88% -0.88%
07.11.24 $71.78 4d -3.18% -3.18% -3.18% -3.18%
18.09.24 $69.01 18d +1.45% +2.61% +0.84% +0%
16.07.24 $69.25 8d +0.49% -4.48% -4.48% -4.48%
03.05.24 $66.15 32d +3.4% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for PHO: 0%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
7-10% 1 +7.34% +13.4% +8.61% +8.61% Close
5-7% 4 +6.21% +5.8% +7.47% +7.76% Close
3-5% 10 +3.58% +4.63% +5.88% +4.7% Close
1-3% 26 +1.81% +2.65% +2.52% +3.18% Close
0-1% 6 +0.7% -0.09% -0.39% -0.44% Close
-1-0% 9 -0.62% -0.24% -0.15% -0.18% Neg
-3-1% 11 -2.06% -1.4% -1.29% -0.14% Neg
-5-3% 7 -3.83% -3.11% -2.49% -2.49% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 10% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

LOW ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 2

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
19%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
50% / 50%
Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.
GEX (Mio.)
0.0
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
Max Pain
$61.00 · 10.1%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$67.86
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

PHO GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

PHO GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 19% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
▶ FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About Invesco Water Resources ETF

The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its total assets in securities that comprise the underlying index. The underlying index seeks to track the performance of companies that create products designed to conserve and purify water for homes, businesses and industries. The underlying index is designed to track the performance of U.S. exchange-listed companies that create products that conserve and purify water for homes, businesses, and industries. The fund is non-diversified.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$2.16 B
Expense Ratio0.59%
Dividend Yield0.57%
Portfolio Turnover0%
YTD Return3.88%
3-Year Return9.62%
5-Year Return6.70%

Sector Allocation

Sector Weight
Industrials 57.2%
Utilities 12.5%
Information Technology 12.4%
Materials 9%
Healthcare 7.1%

Top 10 Holdings

Symbol Company Weight
ECL ECOLAB INC 8.2%
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC 8.18%
WAT WATERS CORP 7.1%
AWK AMERICAN WATER WORKS CO INC 6.8%
ROP ROPER TECHNOLOGIES INC 6.25%
IEX IDEX CORP 4.63%
CNM CORE & MAIN INC CLASS A 4.57%
ITRI ITRON INC 4.08%
WMS ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS INC 4.08%
XYL XYLEM INC 3.94%

Frequently Asked Questions – Invesco Water Resources ETF (PHO)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.