Semiconductors Lead, Commodities Crumble

Semiconductors Lead as Commodities Crumble – June 23, 2026

Executive Summary

Sector momentum split decisively today. Technology and semiconductor strength continues to accelerate, with SMH holding a commanding momentum score of +100.28 over the last nine days. Meanwhile, commodity ETFs face broad capitulation-19 of 22 show negative trend momentum, and crude oil derivatives like USO are in freefall with a momentum score of -99.41. What stands out most: six sector ETFs reversed course yesterday despite longer-term weakness, suggesting selective buying into beaten-down segments. Risk-on positioning remains intact at the sector level, but energy and raw materials are pricing in economic headwinds.

Sector ETF Trend Strength – Last 10 Days – June 23, 2026

Market Context and Interpretation

The split between technology and commodities reflects a market pricing two different economic scenarios. Strong semiconductor and AI momentum (SMH, CHAT, ARTY) points to sustained confidence in productivity gains and capital expenditure cycles. This isn’t frothy enthusiasm-it’s grinding strength across nine trading days. But commodities tell a different story: gold, oil, wheat, and uranium are all in sustained downtrends. I’ve watched commodity crashes before, and this breadth of weakness typically signals either excess supply or deteriorating demand expectations, or both.

What caught my attention: XLU (Utilities), NUKZ (Nuclear), and GRID (Clean Energy Infrastructure) all reversed yesterday after extended downtrends. These three reversals suggest some contrarian nibbling in defensive and alternative energy names. Not conviction yet-momentum scores of +0.82, +0.33, and +0.23 are modest-but enough to flag as observation points. If capital really is rotating toward these groups, the next three to five days will confirm it.

Consumer names remain under pressure. XLC (Communications) posted the worst momentum score across all sectors at -42.88, while discretionary spending ETFs like XLY carry negative momentum of -14.43. This divergence-strength in productive tech, weakness in consumer discretionary-aligns with a market adjusting to higher rates and tighter financial conditions.

Sector ETF Momentum Rankings

Rank	ETF	10-Day Strength	Today	Signal
1	SMH	+100.28	-2.57	Weakening
2	CHAT	+88.05	-0.92	Weakening
3	BUG	+71.12	-4.12	Slowing
4	XLV	+49.34	-0.06	Slowing
5	IGV	+35.65	-5.92	Slowing
6	ARTY	+31.89	-1.59	Weakening
7	XLK	+31.13	+0.08	Accelerating
8	PHO	+18.54	-3.75	Weakening
9	XLF	+12.66	-3.59	Weakening
10	XLI	+10.06	-2.91	Weakening
11	XLRE	+6.00	-0.03	Slowing
12	XLB	+4.33	+2.03	Accelerating
13	IFRA	+2.47	-1.27	Weakening
14	XBI	-0.48	+2.50	Reversal
15	VCR	-2.44	+0.22	Reversal
16	XLP	-3.84	-0.01	Downtrend
17	SHLD	-3.89	-1.09	Downtrend
18	BLOK	-7.36	+0.89	Reversal
19	GRID	-10.73	+0.23	Reversal
20	NUKZ	-13.35	+0.33	Reversal
21	XLY	-14.43	-2.23	Downtrend
22	XLU	-19.36	+0.82	Reversal
23	XLE	-19.58	-4.89	Downtrend
24	DRIV	-21.21	-4.27	Downtrend
25	XOP	-36.01	-7.30	Downtrend
26	XLC	-42.88	-6.58	Downtrend

Sector momentum reveals a defined pecking order. Seven names hold positive momentum scores of +10 or better: semiconductor, AI, cybersecurity, healthcare, software, artificial intelligence, and broad technology. Everything below IFRA sits in red. Six momentum reversals-XBI, VCR, BLOK, GRID, NUKZ, XLU-all posted positive contribution yesterday despite longer downtrends. XLK is the only broad tech sector showing true acceleration (momentum score of +0.08), a signal to watch going forward.

Commodity ETF Momentum Rankings

Commodity ETF Trend Strength June 23, 2026

Commodity ETF Trend Strength – Last 10 Days – June 23, 2026

Rank	ETF	10-Day Strength	Today	Signal
1	UNG	+37.28	-0.01	Weakening
2	PHO	+18.54	-3.75	Weakening
3	SLX	+0.51	-0.28	Slowing
4	CPER	-3.20	-0.04	Downtrend
5	COPX	-7.62	+1.11	Reversal
6	DBB	-9.12	-2.37	Downtrend
7	SETM	-24.05	-0.01	Downtrend
8	URNM	-25.33	+0.14	Reversal
9	SOYB	-26.14	-4.49	Downtrend
10	CANE	-52.83	-8.08	Downtrend
11	GDX	-74.89	+0.90	Reversal
12	LIT	-75.59	+0.26	Reversal
13	WEAT	-78.01	-11.38	Downtrend
14	CORN	-80.48	-12.06	Downtrend
15	SIL	-84.98	+0.48	Reversal
16	REMX	-86.80	+1.13	Reversal
17	GLD	-88.43	-12.18	Downtrend
18	USO	-99.41	-18.54	Downtrend
19	PLTM	-113.93	-17.29	Downtrend
20	SLV	-127.72	-19.16	Downtrend
21	URA	-164.98	+0.22	Reversal
22	IBIT	-214.44	-29.32	Downtrend

Only three commodity names hold positive momentum: UNG (Natural Gas) at +37.28, PHO (Water) at +18.54, and SLX (Steel) at +0.51. Seven reversals stand out: COPX, GDX, LIT, SIL, REMX, URNM, and URA all showed positive momentum yesterday despite heavy nine-day downtrends. GDX and REMX posted the strongest single-day reversals (momentum scores of +0.90 and +1.13), signaling potential floor-building in precious metals mining. Bitcoin derivatives (IBIT) remain in catastrophic decline with momentum score of -214.44 and fresh selling pressure at -29.32 today.

Key ETFs to Watch

Capital flowing into technology persists despite deceleration signals. SMH leads with a momentum score of +100.28-a nine-day accumulation of consistent strength. CHAT and BUG follow, both decelerating but still decisively positive. Money is clearly repricing energy and commodities downward while maintaining conviction in productive tech assets.

Reversals matter more than absolute momentum right now. Seven sector reversals and seven commodity reversals in a single day suggest that extremes are becoming uncomfortable. GDX, REMX, and copper miners (COPX) reversing together hints that someone is nibbling on precious metals exposure after significant selling. If these reversals sustain through tomorrow, count them as bottoming signals. If they fade, they are just noise.

Weakness remains concentrated. XLC continues its collapse with momentum score of -42.88 and a fresh -6.58 momentum contribution today. XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration), DRIV (Autonomous Vehicles), and XLE (Energy) are all in freefall. Energy sector positioning suggests either forced selling from funds liquidating or a market genuinely pricing zero demand recovery through year-end.

What Comes Next

XLK’s accelerating signal deserves attention. If broad technology sustains positive momentum over the next few sessions while SMH begins to stabilize (rather than weaken), the sector is entering a new phase. Watch whether UNG holds its momentum lead or rolls over-natural gas strength is unusual in a growth-stalling environment, and any reversal would signal broader demand concerns.

Six sector reversals and seven commodity reversals constitute material signal density. By June 26, we’ll know whether these bounces are tactical or early resumption of longer uptrends. Option chain volatility and execution volume on these reversals will clarify intent fast.

Disclaimer: This report documents momentum scores and signal configuration from June 23, 2026’s market close. Momentum scores are statistical aggregates of trend strength over defined periods. Nothing in this analysis constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to enter or exit any position. Past momentum patterns offer no guarantee of future price performance. Individual traders remain solely responsible for position management, risk assessment, and compliance with their brokerage agreements.

Author Disclosure: The author operates a personal trade journal as part of independent market research. At the time of publication, the author may hold, have held, or have hedged exposure to ETF categories discussed in this report through direct purchases, derivatives, or related instruments. This is personal documentation of market observation and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Readers are encouraged to conduct independent due diligence and consult with a financial professional before making allocation decisions.

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