AI and Semiconductors Weaken as Commodities Split

AI and Semiconductors Weaken as Commodities Split – May 05, 2026

Technology leadership is showing cracks. After nine consecutive days of strong upward momentum, artificial intelligence and semiconductor ETFs posted their weakest sessions in the recent run, with ARTY and SMH both printing negative momentum scores today. Meanwhile, the commodity picture is splintering: precious metals and soft commodities are faltering, but strategic materials-lithium, uranium, rare earths-remain in firm uptrends. Energy is flashing reversal signals for the first time in weeks.

What we’re seeing is not capitulation but recalibration. The leaders aren’t breaking; they’re consolidating. But the timing of this weakness, paired with commodity divergence, deserves close attention.

Sector ETF Trend Strength – Last 10 Days – May 05, 2026

Key ETFs to Watch Right Now

Strongest Performers:

ARTY (Artificial Intelligence) – momentum score of +201.85 over 9 days, though today’s -29.88 signals weakening. This is still the market’s primary risk-on narrative.
LIT (Lithium) – momentum score of +165.59. Electric vehicle supply chains remain in focus as the broader commodity complex fractures.
REMX (Rare Earth Metals) – momentum score of +162.17. Geopolitical supply concerns are still pricing in strength here.

Notable Reversals:

XLE (Energy) and XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) both flipped positive today after extended downtrends. XOP sits at -67.05 cumulatively but scored +1.63 today. This could signal capitulation-driven bounce or genuine demand shift.
UNG (Natural Gas) has been crushed for weeks with a momentum score of -155.63, yet reversed with +0.04 today. Extremely tight, but a reversal nonetheless.
XLU (Utilities) reversed from negative to +0.19 momentum score today.

Weakness to Monitor:

SHLD (Cybersecurity Defense) is in free fall with momentum score of -16.78 over nine days and -5.95 today. This one is trending downward, not consolidating.
GDX (Gold Miners) – despite gold being a defensive asset, miners are suffering with momentum score of -5.18 today.

Sector ETF Momentum Rankings

Rank	ETF	10-Day Strength	Today	Signal
1	ARTY	+201.85	-29.88	Weakening
2	SMH	+189.70	-28.56	Weakening
3	CHAT	+167.89	-24.15	Weakening
4	DRIV	+160.87	-22.74	Weakening
5	BLOK	+149.74	-20.95	Weakening
6	XLK	+129.20	-19.56	Weakening
7	GRID	+115.22	-16.21	Weakening
8	VCR	+90.92	-12.40	Weakening
9	NUKZ	+88.77	-12.16	Weakening
10	XLY	+84.69	-11.52	Weakening
11	XLRE	+75.24	-10.00	Weakening
12	XLI	+72.22	-9.02	Weakening
13	XLF	+70.00	-8.58	Weakening
14	IFRA	+62.88	-9.11	Weakening
15	XLC	+59.30	-7.53	Weakening
16	IGV	+57.11	-9.70	Weakening
17	BUG	+38.55	-7.62	Weakening
18	XLP	+16.52	-3.14	Weakening
19	XBI	+69.99	-1.25	Slowing
20	XLB	+54.14	-0.40	Slowing
21	PHO	+40.07	-0.55	Slowing
22	XLV	+6.87	-1.15	Slowing
23	XLU	-1.71	+0.19	Reversal
24	XLE	-53.80	+1.14	Reversal
25	XOP	-67.05	+1.63	Reversal
26	SHLD	-16.78	-5.95	Downtrend

What the sector data reveals

Twenty-two of twenty-six sector ETFs still hold positive momentum scores, but today’s action reads like the first exhale after a nine-day sprint. Every technology leader-ARTY, SMH, CHAT, DRIV, BLOK-printed weakening signals. None broke their trend, but the size of today’s negative momentum scores tells a story: capital is pausing.

Three sectors flipped positive today after extended downtrends: XLE, XOP, and XLU. These aren’t breakouts; they’re oversold bounces. Energy had retreated hard. Whether the bounce holds depends on whether these reversals have follow-through tomorrow.

SHLD stands apart. This cybersecurity defense ETF remains in downtrend with both a negative nine-day score and a worse showing today. Nowhere to hide there.

Commodity ETF Momentum Rankings

Commodity ETF Trend Strength May 05, 2026

Commodity ETF Trend Strength – Last 10 Days – May 05, 2026

Rank	ETF	10-Day Strength	Today	Signal
1	LIT	+165.59	-22.52	Weakening
2	REMX	+162.17	-21.10	Weakening
3	URA	+149.75	-20.04	Weakening
4	SLX	+151.06	-19.13	Weakening
5	IBIT	+86.18	-13.05	Weakening
6	WEAT	+7.65	-4.57	Weakening
7	SOYB	+5.52	-1.23	Weakening
8	SETM	+157.38	-0.20	Slowing
9	URNM	+117.47	-0.22	Slowing
10	COPX	+117.32	-2.31	Slowing
11	CPER	+85.06	-0.24	Slowing
12	DBB	+76.90	-0.06	Slowing
13	SIL	+89.87	-3.72	Slowing
14	GLD	+27.93	-1.38	Slowing
15	PLTM	+44.59	-2.21	Slowing
16	SLV	+55.90	-1.61	Slowing
17	GDX	+64.32	-5.18	Slowing
18	CORN	-4.33	+2.47	Reversal
19	USO	-4.71	+5.49	Reversal
20	CANE	-82.44	+1.78	Reversal
21	UNG	-155.63	+0.04	Reversal
22	PHO	+40.07	-0.55	Slowing

What the commodity data reveals

Commodities split into two camps today. Strategic materials-lithium, rare earths, uranium-are weakening but still maintain solid cumulative momentum. That’s healthy consolidation in a bull run. Precious metals and softs are slowing. Gold, silver, and platinum posted marginal negative momentum today despite positive nine-day scores.

Four reversals demand attention: USO printed +5.49 today after cumulative momentum of -4.71. CORN, CANE, and UNG all flipped positive after extended declines. CANE especially-it had a momentum score of -82.44 and is now reversing. Whether these hold or fade will tell us if oversold bounce equals trend change.

Market Context: The Split Signal

Risk-on assets-technology and growth-dependent commodities-are consolidating hard. This is not weakness; it’s the breathing room every bull run needs. Leaders like ARTY and SMH are still miles ahead of their downtrend peers. They are taking profits, not breaking.

Defensive commodities (gold, silver, precious metals) are stalling. That reads as low fear, low demand for safe havens. Money is not fleeing equities into metals. Instead, energy and soft commodities are showing reversal signals-classic oversold bounces from deeply negative territory.

Split capital flows are the story: technology still controls the high ground, but strategic commodities keep pace, and energy is beginning to bounce. If tech continues to weaken tomorrow while energy reversal holds, you’re looking at true rotation. If tech rebounds and energy fades, this is just consolidation within a risk-on regime.

What Traders Should Monitor Next

Tomorrow’s critical signals:

Does ARTY momentum stabilize or accelerate downward? If it closes positive tomorrow after two days of selling, the consolidation thesis wins. Continued weakness could invite larger profit-taking.
Do energy reversals (XOP, XLE, USO) hold their gains? Flat or negative follow-through collapses the bounce narrative. Positive continuation suggests capital is genuinely rotating.
How do precious metals respond? Another down day means safe-haven demand is truly low. Stabilization means the weakness was technical, not fundamental.
Watch SETM and URNM closely. Both are slowing but still solidly positive. If they break negative, strategic metals are losing their edge. If they accelerate, the EV/tech supply chain narrative stays intact.

Sector breadth is 22-positive, 4-negative. That’s a healthy bull market in a consolidation day, not a warning. But three reversals in energy after weeks of downtrend make tomorrow’s close on XLE and XOP more significant than it looks today.

Disclaimer: This report documents momentum scores from market data available as of May 05, 2026. All values reflect calculations from the prior trading day’s close. This is a personal trade journal entry analyzing publicly available ETF strength data, not investment advice. Momentum scores are technical indicators only and do not predict future price movement. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial professional before making any trading decisions.

Author Disclosure: The author may hold or has previously held positions in ETF-related instruments, equity index derivatives, or commodity futures at the time of publication. This analysis is offered as a personal market documentation exercise and does not constitute a trading recommendation or endorsement of any security.

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