How is MS valued relative to the market?

MS currently trades at a trailing P/E of 16.70x and a forward P/E of 15.14x. The stock has a beta of 1.21, meaning it moves roughly more than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is MS?

MS reports a gross margin of 87.64%, an operating margin of 41.57%, a net profit margin of 25.90%. Return on equity stands at 17.97% and return on assets at 1.35%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does MS pay a dividend?

MS pays an annual dividend of $4.60, representing a forward yield of 2.15%. The payout ratio is 32.31%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-08-13. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for MS?

Based on a consensus of 21 analysts, the median price target is $245.00, the most optimistic target is $262.00, the most conservative target is $184.00. At the current price of $189.71, the median target implies 29.1% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

MS is held by 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in XLF (2.67%), SPY (0.35%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence MS's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for MS?

As of the most recent session, MS closed at $189.71. The swing trend is negative with ADX at 49.7 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bearish and has been running for 20 days. A Golden Cross is in place. 30-day historical volatility is at 20.7%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for MS and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for MS fired on 08.09.26 at $216.24. The position has been held for 3 trading days. 10-day return from entry: -0.41%. 20-day return: -0.41%. The historical edge of the signal system for MS is +7.55% across 114 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the >20% range, averaging 27% at 10 days and 13.9% at 60 days.

MS – Morgan Stanley

Financial Services | Capital Markets | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$189.71

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▼ Short

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control

+7.55%

Signal Edge

Slim positive edge across 1 signals – treat with caution

49.7

Trend Strength (ADX)

Strong trend – directional signals reliable

Options Signals

16%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

6% / 94%

Call / Put Flow

Bearish positioning – put premium dominates options flow

Last Trendchange Signal

08.09.26

Date

Signal entry date

$216.24

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

Days Held

Trading days since signal

-0.41%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

-0.41%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

-0.41%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

–

+60d

Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

MS shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 7 Long Put 📖 View full options analysis →

MS Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $189.71 · ATR14: $2.44

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

MS shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▼ Short	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▼ Down · -20d	Strength: -0.77 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX)	49.7 – Strong	ADX38: 53.0
Volatility (HV30)	20.7% – Calm	HV90: 28.1% \| HV180: 29.3%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Partially aligned (1/3)
EMA21 Distance	-1.67 ATR ↑	EMA21: $195.55
GD200 Extension	-0.9 ATR – Normal	GD20: -1.8 \| GD50: -3.6 \| GD100: -4.1

📉 Downside Momentum Intensifying

Downward momentum active for -20 days and still building (-0.77). Selling pressure is not easing.

💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 49.7 (Strong)

A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 53.0. Trend-following has clear edge here.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 20.7% | HV90: 28.1% | HV180: 29.3%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $208.05 above GD200 $194.11 by 7.18%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Partially aligned (1/3).

📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating

Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($195.55) with -1.67 ATR distance and growing.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $198.47 (-1.8 ATR) | GD50: $208.05 (-3.6 ATR) | GD100: $210.73 (-4.1 ATR) | GD200: $194.11 (-0.9 ATR). ATR14: $2.44.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-13.20	2.27	3.88	3.64	-10.89	-11.22	17.12	-10.83	-2.89	-0.40	-0.91	9.17	-11.32
2011	4.30	-0.80	-5.23	-3.88	-7.19	-0.49	-6.15	-21.52	-20.22	41.84	-8.88	4.34	-45.93
2012	16.26	-4.39	2.33	-12.54	-23.61	14.64	-8.19	11.08	7.95	3.80	-4.24	16.11	20.35
2013	16.48	-4.10	-1.97	2.55	18.50	-4.72	10.85	-7.72	2.56	6.07	7.18	-0.22	61.20
2014	-4.73	6.38	2.98	-0.57	-1.18	4.63	0.38	8.61	0.08	3.20	1.33	10.54	26.41
2015	-12.39	3.97	-1.49	4.17	1.83	0.56	-0.96	-11.11	-4.90	5.15	2.47	-9.84	-16.56
2016	-17.34	-3.92	-4.12	6.60	0.39	-5.47	11.61	12.46	0.45	5.70	23.98	0.22	37.47
2017	-0.85	6.95	-8.48	2.00	-4.57	4.58	3.37	-3.62	4.28	2.73	3.99	1.01	24.27
2018	8.81	-2.48	-0.98	-1.59	T -3.23	-7.44	T 6.55	-2.68	-4.39	-1.40	-3.27	-12.69	-22.36
2019	T 5.45	T 0.39	T -0.73	11.52	-14.47	7.54	T 2.16	-3.36	T 4.09	T 12.13	4.54	4.16	30.24
2020	1.10	-14.39	-26.85	T 25.76	15.11	8.06	3.39	5.64	-8.05	T 2.64	25.20	8.29	35.65
2021	-1.36	13.59	-1.90	T 5.99	10.30	-0.46	5.07	8.52	-6.72	T 4.49	-8.83	3.05	47.09
2022	T 3.06	T -12.70	-0.26	-6.56	5.09	T -10.52	T 10.89	1.34	-8.31	3.21	T 11.17	-8.58	-12.15
2023	T 14.46	-1.72	-8.72	4.13	-7.02	T 4.05	5.96	-6.37	-4.76	-11.93	T 11.83	15.28	21.06
2024	-7.09	-0.90	T 8.88	-2.88	6.88	-0.23	T 4.08	T 1.82	5.01	11.33	12.63	-4.05	33.89
2025	T 10.94	-2.95	-9.65	T -0.28	9.65	9.70	0.99	8.19	6.79	4.53	3.67	5.38	42.27
2026	0.49	-10.04	-1.46	T 14.70	9.38	-0.93	-0.68	T 0.99	T -10.88	0.90			4.29

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

MS - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for MS:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
08.09.26	$216.24	3d	-0.41%	-0.41%	-0.41%	+0%
17.08.26	$218.21	2d	-1.82%	-1.82%	+0%	+0%
08.04.26	$176.02	38d	+7.55%	+7.52%	+7.7%	+20.46%
29.04.25	$116.21	41d	+9.34%	+11.19%	+13.43%	+22.59%
16.01.25	$135.81	23d	+3.04%	+0.76%	+3.59%	+3.59%
21.08.24	$100.69	20d	-0.54%	-4.07%	-4.07%	-4.07%
08.07.24	$100.59	21d	+1.49%	+2.6%	+2.6%	+0%
05.03.24	$89.13	20d	-1.31%	+4.02%	+2.83%	+2.83%
15.11.23	$79.68	39d	-1.42%	+7.47%	+17.52%	+13.59%
13.06.23	$80.66	8d	-5.32%	-5.32%	-5.32%	-5.32%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for MS: 7.55%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
>20%	1	+27.05%	+13.89%	+13.89%	+13.89%	Hold
15-20%	1	+19.33%	+35.59%	+20.42%	+20.42%	Hold
10-15%	5	+10.71%	+8.68%	+10.86%	+10.64%	Hold
7-10%	7	+8.13%	+12.02%	+11.42%	+14.77%	Hold
5-7%	14	+5.81%	+6.24%	+7.78%	+9.7%	Hold
3-5%	7	+3.79%	+4.23%	+5.45%	+5.65%	Hold
1-3%	17	+1.96%	+2.28%	+3.23%	+3.6%	Hold
0-1%	8	+0.56%	+2.82%	+3.18%	+3.2%	Hold
-1-0%	10	-0.54%	-1.24%	-1.76%	-0.85%	Neg
-3-1%	19	-1.89%	-1.65%	-1.09%	-0.86%	Neg
-5-3%	15	-3.7%	-0.27%	+1.42%	+3.17%	Neg
-7-5%	8	-5.71%	-3.09%	-3.94%	-2.42%	Neg
-10-7%	2	-8.22%	-8.22%	-8.22%	-4.12%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 7

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

16%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

6% / 94%

More than 60% of options premium is flowing into puts. This indicates net bearish positioning by market participants.

GEX (Mio.)

74,499.1

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$187.50 · 1.2%

GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.

Max Pain

$190.00 · 0.2%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$189.71

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

MS GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 2 Long Put Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 16% – options are historically cheap. Bearish flow (6% calls) supports buying downside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages

✓ Profits from significant downside moves with limited maximum risk

✓ Cheap entry when IV-Rank is historically low

✓ Can be used as portfolio protection against existing long positions

Risks

✕ Time decay erodes value daily – timing the entry matters

✕ Needs a substantial move below the strike to be profitable

✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays above the strike

▶ FAQ: Long Put

What is a Long Put?

A Long Put gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying at the strike price before expiration. It is a bearish strategy with maximum loss limited to the premium paid. It is often used as a hedge against existing long positions.

When is buying puts most cost-effective?

Buying puts when IV-Rank is low means you are purchasing protection at below-average cost. Many traders fail to hedge when volatility is cheap and scramble to buy expensive puts when fear spikes. Buying puts proactively when IV is historically low is a disciplined risk management approach.

Setup 2 of 2 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 16% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$324.45 B
PE Ratio (TTM)	16.70
Forward PE	15.14
PEG Ratio	1.88
Price/Sales	4.17
Price/Book	3.05
Beta	1.21

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	87.64%
Operating Margin	41.57%
Net Margin	25.90%
ROE	17.97%
ROA	1.35%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$4.6
Forward Yield	215.00%
Payout Ratio	32.31%
Dividend Date	2026-08-13

Analyst Consensus (21 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$245
High Target	$262
Low Target	$184

About Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The company offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance. It also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; Asia wealth management; business-related investments services; originating corporate and commercial real estate loans, secured lending facilities, and extending securities-based and other financing; and research activities. In addition, the company offers financial advisor-led brokerage, investment advisory, custody, cash management, and administrative services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; stock plan administration; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services. Further, it provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

ETF Holdings

Morgan Stanley is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
XLF	2.67%
SPY	0.35%

Frequently Asked Questions – Morgan Stanley (MS)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.