SPY – State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

ETF

Large Blend | Inception: 1993-01-22

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$765.72
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+9.8%
Signal Edge
Slim positive edge across 3 signals – treat with caution
21.1
Trend Strength (ADX)
Moderate strength – trend forming, not confirmed
Options Signals
3%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
46% / 54%
Call / Put Flow
Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced
Last Trendchange Signal
06.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$751.28
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
13d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
-1.06%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
-1.74%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+3.34%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Trend Extended – Protect Gains Composite Score: +2 / 7

SPY has had a strong run, but the trend shows the first clear signs of fatigue. After 14 days of positive momentum, strength is now declining while price sits 9.1 ATR above the 200-day moving average at $707.55. At this distance from long-term equilibrium, mean-reversion pressure tends to increase.

What to watch

A fresh entry does not present itself here. For those already in the trade, this is a logical zone to tighten stops, scale out partial positions, or at minimum recalibrate risk-reward.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest SPY Reports

Aug 22, 2026
Aug 21, 2026
Options Flow Analysis — Daily Reports Why 68 Bullish Signals Are Hiding a Contrarian Trap
Aug 20, 2026
Aug 19, 2026

SPY Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $765.72  ·  ATR14: $0.91

Trend Extended – Protect Gains Composite Score: +2 / 7

SPY has had a strong run, but the trend shows the first clear signs of fatigue. After 14 days of positive momentum, strength is now declining while price sits 9.1 ATR above the 200-day moving average at $707.55. At this distance from long-term equilibrium, mean-reversion pressure tends to increase.

What to watch

A fresh entry does not present itself here. For those already in the trade, this is a logical zone to tighten stops, scale out partial positions, or at minimum recalibrate risk-reward.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 14d Strength: 0.11 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 21.1 – Moderate ADX38: 11.5
Volatility (HV30) 12.5% – Calm HV90: 12.9% | HV180: 13.2%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance 2.65 ATR ↑ EMA21: $760.95
GD200 Extension 9.1 ATR – Extended GD20: 0.5 | GD50: 2.1 | GD100: 4.5
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 14 days but strength is declining (0.11). The trend is intact but losing energy.
🟡 Trend Strength – ADX14: 21.1 (Moderate)
Moderate trend strength. ADX38: 11.5. Sufficient for directional bias but not ideal for aggressive sizing.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 12.5% | HV90: 12.9% | HV180: 13.2%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $751.75 above GD200 $707.55 by 6.25%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.
⚡ EMA21 – Fresh Cross
Price has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $760.95, now trading above. Often marks a near-term directional shift.
📏 Extended Move
9.1 ATR from the 200-day SMA. The trend may be maturing. Disciplined stop management becomes increasingly important.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $762.33 (0.5 ATR) | GD50: $751.75 (2.1 ATR) | GD100: $735.54 (4.5 ATR) | GD200: $707.55 (9.1 ATR). ATR14: $0.91.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -5.24 1.54 4.57 0.86 -9.12 -4.01 7.31 -6.61 5.23 3.39 -0.03 3.92 10.96
2011 1.28 1.84 1.27 2.46 -0.97 0.08 -3.43 -5.09 -6.44 14.16 2.45 0.42 -1.22
2012 3.00 3.43 2.24 -1.39 -6.59 6.20 0.88 2.59 2.08 -2.08 -0.48 0.68 11.69
2013 2.49 0.24 3.00 2.33 3.27 -2.39 4.56 -4.11 2.20 3.81 2.72 2.30 26.45
2014 -2.59 6.96 1.10 0.03 2.31 1.46 -2.00 4.26 -1.79 3.76 2.69 -0.11 12.37
2015 -2.91 4.33 -2.62 1.34 0.20 -2.70 1.45 -5.78 -0.07 8.22 -0.81 -3.23 -0.76
2016 -3.63 T
-0.05
3.74 -0.29 T
0.90
-0.38 3.43 0.20 -0.50 -1.50 T
4.44
1.80 11.20
2017 1.02 3.89 -1.68 T
1.17
1.16 -0.64 1.88 0.07 1.37 1.91 2.92 0.91 18.48
2018 4.89 T
-3.53
T
-1.70
2.73 T
2.25
-0.85 3.48 3.36 0.31 -7.23 0.78 T
-10.52
-7.01
2019 T
7.89
3.19 0.73 2.87 -5.67 T
6.71
0.60 -0.81 T
2.07
3.44 2.67 3.28 28.65
2020 -0.97 -8.60 -16.61 T
18.01
7.61 0.92 5.15 6.24 -5.02 T
-3.12
9.65 2.15 15.09
2021 0.35 1.10 1.73 4.17 0.44 2.00 1.88 3.19 -5.02 T
5.76
-0.97 5.43 28.79
2022 -5.82 -3.60 T
5.04
-9.03 -0.37 -7.90 T
8.07
-3.80 -9.90 5.35 6.02 -6.12 -19.95
2023 T
6.74
-3.54 T
3.71
1.21 0.56 5.09 3.15 -1.34 T
-5.25
-2.13 T
7.98
3.53 24.81
2024 2.16 3.86 1.99 -3.86 T
5.40
3.11 1.00 T
3.81
3.93 0.00 5.52 -2.91 24.00
2025 T
2.94
-0.60 -4.18 T
-1.15
5.54 4.24 2.34 3.75 4.05 2.04 0.01 T
0.24
16.64
2026 1.29 -1.35 -5.25 T
9.68
4.97 -1.55 T
0.17
1.06 12.08

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for SPY:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
06.07.26 $751.28 13d -1.06% -1.74% +3.34% +0%
10.04.26 $679.46 62d +4.27% +7.67% +9.31% +14.48%
01.12.25 $680.27 57d +0.22% +1.11% +1.98% +8.42%
29.04.25 $554.32 88d +5.17% +6.64% +8.8% +24.35%
22.01.25 $606.44 14d -0.77% +1.07% -1.07% -0.55%
19.08.24 $559.61 41d +0.73% +0.58% +2.53% +7.21%
08.05.24 $517.19 61d +2.74% +3.38% +5.76% +9.79%
08.11.23 $437.25 95d +3.66% +4% +7.09% +26.65%
12.09.23 $445.99 9d -0.59% -0.59% -0.59% +0%
05.09.23 $449.24 1d -0.61% +0% +0% +0%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for SPY: 9.8%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
5-7% 3 +5.17% +4.16% +6.74% +20.34% Hold
3-5% 2 +3.97% +5.84% +8.2% +20.57% Hold
1-3% 9 +2.05% +2.76% +3.44% +5.37% Hold
0-1% 6 +0.56% +1.21% +1.92% +7.59% Hold
-1-0% 5 -0.54% +0.35% +0.6% +7.71% Neg
-3-1% 2 -1.19% -1.53% +1.01% +0.18% Neg
-5-3% 1 -3.39% -3.39% -3.39% +0% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 34.2

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
3%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
46% / 54%
Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.
GEX (Mio.)
-907,242,712.8
Negative GEX: market makers are short gamma. They sell dips and buy rallies, which amplifies moves and increases volatility.
GEX Flip Strike
$764.00 · 0.2%
GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.
Max Pain
$768.00 · 0.3%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$765.72
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

SPY GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

SPY GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 3% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

The trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the “Portfolio”), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$698.27 B
Expense Ratio0.09%
Dividend Yield1.03%
Portfolio Turnover3%
YTD Return66.41%
3-Year Return18.52%
5-Year Return11.88%

Sector Allocation

Sector Weight
Information Technology 33%
Financials 10.7%
Communication Services 10.3%
Consumer Discretionary 10%
Healthcare 9.3%
Industrials 9.1%
Consumer Staples 5.1%
Energy 4%
Utilities 2.5%
Materials 1.9%

Top 10 Holdings

Symbol Company Weight
NVDA NVIDIA CORP 7.57%
AAPL APPLE INC 6.56%
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP 4.92%
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 3.6%
GOOGL ALPHABET INC CLASS A 3%
AVGO BROADCOM INC 2.68%
GOOG ALPHABET INC CLASS C 2.4%
META META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A 2.3%
TSLA TESLA INC 1.91%
BRK-B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CLASS B 1.56%

Frequently Asked Questions – State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.