How is HD valued relative to the market?

HD currently trades at a trailing P/E of 21.75x and a forward P/E of 19.40x. The stock has a beta of 0.96, meaning it moves roughly less than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is HD?

HD reports a gross margin of 32.80%, an operating margin of 12.86%, a net profit margin of 8.41%. Return on equity stands at 104.30% and return on assets at 12.14%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does HD pay a dividend?

HD pays an annual dividend of $9.32, representing a forward yield of 3.02%. The payout ratio is 64.80%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-09-16. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for HD?

Based on a consensus of 32 analysts, the median price target is $379.00, the most optimistic target is $425.00, the most conservative target is $310.00. At the current price of $285.77, the median target implies 32.6% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

HD is held by 4 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in XLY (6.09%), VCR (5.29%), DIA (4.41%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence HD's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for HD?

As of the most recent session, HD closed at $285.77. The swing trend is negative with ADX at 44.9 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bearish and has been running for 36 days. No Golden Cross is currently active. 30-day historical volatility is at 20.1%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for HD and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for HD fired on 06.08.26 at $349.52. The position has been held for 8 trading days. 10-day return from entry: -3.33%. 20-day return: -3.33%. The historical edge of the signal system for HD is +12.21% across 111 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the 10-15% range, averaging 12.5% at 10 days and 20.2% at 60 days.

HD – The Home Depot, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical | Home Improvement Retail | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$285.77

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▼ Short

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control

+12.21%

Signal Edge

Moderate edge across 4 signals – signal performs above random, not exceptional

44.9

Trend Strength (ADX)

Strong trend – directional signals reliable

Options Signals

18%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

6% / 94%

Call / Put Flow

Bearish positioning – put premium dominates options flow

Last Trendchange Signal

06.08.26

Date

Signal entry date

$349.52

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

Days Held

Trading days since signal

-3.33%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

-3.33%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

-3.33%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

-3.33%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +1 / 7

HD shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 7.6 Long Put 📖 View full options analysis →

HD Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $285.77 · ATR14: $2.17

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +1 / 7

HD shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▼ Short	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▼ Down · -36d	Strength: -0.51 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX)	44.9 – Strong	ADX38: 43.2
Volatility (HV30)	20.1% – Calm	HV90: 26.0% \| HV180: 26.1%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Death Cross ✗	Stack: No MAs aligned
EMA21 Distance	-1.62 ATR ↑	EMA21: $294.07
GD200 Extension	-7.1 ATR – Normal	GD20: -1.5 \| GD50: -4.8 \| GD100: -5.4

📉 Downside Momentum Intensifying

Downward momentum active for -36 days and still building (-0.51). Selling pressure is not easing.

💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 44.9 (Strong)

A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 43.2. Trend-following has clear edge here.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 20.1% | HV90: 26.0% | HV180: 26.1%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

💀 Death Cross – Long-term Bearish

Death Cross in place. GD50 $319.38 below GD200 $338.00. Long-term structure remains bearish. MA stack: No MAs aligned.

📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating

Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($294.07) with -1.62 ATR distance and growing.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $295.09 (-1.5 ATR) | GD50: $319.38 (-4.8 ATR) | GD100: $324.14 (-5.4 ATR) | GD200: $338.00 (-7.1 ATR). ATR14: $2.17.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-2.31	9.92	3.71	8.82	-5.63	-16.30	2.08	-3.64	10.51	-2.90	-0.89	10.90	26.08
2011	4.13	1.31	1.52	-1.10	-2.85	3.09	-4.91	-1.81	-0.17	13.34	11.22	6.85	22.60
2012	5.34	7.00	6.64	3.59	-5.14	10.50	-1.55	10.35	6.32	1.33	4.98	-4.83	49.95
2013	5.42	1.80	1.63	5.28	8.10	-1.54	2.82	-5.28	2.64	2.14	4.78	3.72	32.41
2014	-6.30	9.24	-2.95	0.17	1.13	0.74	-1.19	17.24	0.65	7.13	3.45	6.66	30.74
2015	0.96	9.88	-1.66	-5.43	1.70	0.03	4.43	-0.36	2.13	5.65	7.61	-1.62	30.44
2016	-4.05	-1.89	6.74	-0.72	-2.38	-3.14	6.65	-2.86	-4.13	-5.05	8.50	3.56	4.47
2017	2.43	5.43	0.71	6.46	0.12	T -1.13	-2.87	T 0.60	8.48	1.07	9.28	5.05	44.37
2018	6.85	-8.82	-0.21	T 6.88	1.61	4.14	1.81	T 2.80	1.01	-15.28	0.52	-5.46	-6.55
2019	T 6.45	0.42	T 4.40	4.12	-4.50	T 10.47	1.62	T 7.09	4.18	1.52	-7.09	0.99	30.12
2020	T 3.84	-5.92	-18.26	T 23.07	13.68	1.91	6.99	7.09	-2.36	T -3.93	2.47	-3.45	23.77
2021	T 2.62	-4.34	T 17.41	5.17	-3.44	1.35	T 2.07	-0.32	T 1.43	12.69	9.31	3.64	60.54
2022	-10.20	-14.34	-5.97	-0.50	-1.37	T -7.71	T 7.83	-5.07	-5.94	T 4.38	10.09	-3.43	-20.76
2023	2.61	T -9.62	2.22	T 0.94	-4.10	T 7.72	7.68	-0.53	-9.28	-5.05	T 9.37	8.43	19.18
2024	2.28	5.70	-0.22	-9.19	0.87	T 4.95	9.51	2.77	11.09	-3.74	T 9.31	-8.89	12.72
2025	T 6.05	-2.97	-5.95	-1.38	T 2.79	-0.36	T -1.51	8.86	-0.28	-4.39	-5.66	-3.70	-11.42
2026	8.32	0.69	-11.30	-0.23	-2.08	T 13.52	-5.38	T -3.59	-11.03	1.17			-17.36

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

HD - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for HD:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
06.08.26	$349.52	8d	-3.33%	-3.33%	-3.33%	-3.33%
15.06.26	$329.82	22d	+6.36%	+4.09%	+4.09%	+0%
02.07.25	$371.85	8d	-3.89%	-3.89%	-3.89%	-3.89%
01.05.25	$358.30	22d	+4.05%	+2.79%	+2.79%	+2.79%
23.01.25	$414.39	12d	-0.14%	+0.48%	+0.48%	+0.48%
19.11.24	$406.80	23d	+5.54%	+1.87%	+1.87%	+1.87%
13.06.24	$347.88	16d	-1.84%	-3.36%	-3.36%	-3.36%
14.11.23	$303.63	54d	+3.2%	+9.74%	+14.79%	+13.65%
07.06.23	$281.71	33d	-0.33%	+7.21%	+13.27%	+16.21%
14.04.23	$270.88	15d	+0.6%	+1.89%	+1.89%	+0%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for HD: 12.21%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
10-15%	4	+12.54%	+18.45%	+21.91%	+20.15%	Hold
7-10%	5	+7.78%	+11.31%	+10.74%	+12.11%	Hold
5-7%	8	+6.08%	+6.02%	+6.78%	+5.01%	Close
3-5%	13	+4.14%	+6.54%	+6.51%	+6.06%	Close
1-3%	24	+1.91%	+3.34%	+3.58%	+3.26%	Close
0-1%	13	+0.53%	+1.36%	+0.6%	+0.34%	Close
-1-0%	11	-0.39%	+1.05%	+2.23%	+2.33%	Neg
-3-1%	14	-1.92%	-1.03%	-0.52%	+0.98%	Neg
-5-3%	10	-3.68%	-3.05%	-2.56%	-1.59%	Neg
-7-5%	5	-5.78%	-5.55%	-5.55%	-4.22%	Neg
-10-7%	4	-7.46%	-3.69%	-1.9%	+0%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 7% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 7.6

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

18%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

6% / 94%

More than 60% of options premium is flowing into puts. This indicates net bearish positioning by market participants.

GEX (Mio.)

7,184,433.8

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$282.50 · 1.1%

GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.

Max Pain

$287.50 · 0.6%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$285.77

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

HD GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 2 Long Put Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 18% – options are historically cheap. Bearish flow (6% calls) supports buying downside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages

✓ Profits from significant downside moves with limited maximum risk

✓ Cheap entry when IV-Rank is historically low

✓ Can be used as portfolio protection against existing long positions

Risks

✕ Time decay erodes value daily – timing the entry matters

✕ Needs a substantial move below the strike to be profitable

✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays above the strike

▶ FAQ: Long Put

What is a Long Put?

A Long Put gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying at the strike price before expiration. It is a bearish strategy with maximum loss limited to the premium paid. It is often used as a hedge against existing long positions.

When is buying puts most cost-effective?

Buying puts when IV-Rank is low means you are purchasing protection at below-average cost. Many traders fail to hedge when volatility is cheap and scramble to buy expensive puts when fear spikes. Buying puts proactively when IV is historically low is a disciplined risk management approach.

Setup 2 of 2 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 18% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$310.15 B
PE Ratio (TTM)	21.75
Forward PE	19.40
PEG Ratio	1.72
EV/EBITDA	15.06
Price/Sales	1.83
Price/Book	18.67
Beta	0.96

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	32.80%
Operating Margin	12.86%
Net Margin	8.41%
ROE	104.30%
ROA	12.14%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$9.32
Forward Yield	302.00%
Payout Ratio	64.80%
Dividend Date	2026-09-16

Analyst Consensus (32 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$379
High Target	$425
Low Target	$310

About The Home Depot, Inc.

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, baths, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, windows, and window coverings. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company serves consumers, such as do-it-yourself homeowners and do-it-for-me customers; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, homebuilders, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors and specialty tradespeople, such as electricians, landscapers, insulation installers, plumbers, painters, pool contractors, roofers, and wallboard and ceiling installers. It sells its products through websites and its mobile applications, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, justblinds.com, and americanblinds.com for custom window coverings; constructionresourcesusa.com or design-oriented surfaces, appliances, and architectural specialty products; thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products; hdsupply.com for maintenance, repair, and operations products and related services; and srsdistribution.com, heritagelandscapesupplygroup.com, heritagepoolsupplygroup.com, and gms.com for roofing and building materials, landscape, and pool products; and The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

ETF Holdings

The Home Depot, Inc. is included in 4 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
XLY	6.09%
VCR	5.29%
DIA	4.41%
SPY	0.59%

Frequently Asked Questions – The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.