TSM Signal Follow-Up 10 Days +6.60% Edge 22.02%

TSM Signal Follow-Up – 10 Days Review: +6.60% Performance

Executive Summary

A systematic trading signal for TSM triggered on April 14, 2026 at an entry price of $379.89, carrying an expected edge of 22.02%. After approximately 10 trading days, the position stands at $404.98-a gain of $25.09 per share, representing +6.60% performance. Current price action places this trade within the 5-7% performance range, where historical data shows mixed but generally favorable outcomes. Exit rules remain inactive. Position holds above the zero-percent threshold required for continued execution.

TSM Price Chart – April 28, 2026

Exit Decision

Recommendation: HOLD – Monitor for exit signal

Position performance of +6.60% remains well above the exit threshold of 0% at the 10-day mark. Exit rule does not trigger. Maximum stoploss of -10% has not been breached. Continue monitoring price action for either a move toward the historical 20-day target of 7.4% (based on the 5-7% range) or a trailing stop exit. Next critical observation point: position behavior at 15-20 trading days.

Signal Recap: Original Parameters

On April 14, 2026, a systematic signal generated for TSM with the following characteristics:

Signal Edge: 22.02%
Entry Price: $379.89
Signal Type: Quantitative edge-based entry
Risk Parameters: Maximum stoploss -10%, exit threshold 0% after 10 days

Entry logic identified TSM as meeting predefined statistical conditions across momentum, volume, and volatility filters. Historical backtesting of similar configurations showed an average win rate distributed across multiple return ranges over 10, 20, 30, and 60-day holding periods.

Range	N	10d Avg	20d Avg	30d Avg	60d Avg	Signal
15-20%	1	16.36%	21.6%	16.8%	18.5%	Hold
10-15%	1	12.76%	14.1%	24.7%	76.5%	Hold
7-10%	3	8.52%	13.7%	13.0%	20.0%	Hold
5-7%	6	6.12%	7.4%	12.8%	27.2%	Hold
3-5%	1	4.75%	1.3%	3.4%	0.0%	Close
1-3%	6	2.03%	3.2%	5.0%	13.0%	Hold
0-1%	4	0.60%	-0.0%	3.3%	16.6%	Hold
-1-0%	1	-0.64%	-0.6%	-0.6%	0.0%	Neg
-3-1%	2	-1.90%	-1.7%	-1.9%	-4.1%	Neg
-5-3%	2	-4.62%	1.1%	3.5%	6.2%	Neg
-7-5%	2	-5.23%	-2.9%	0.7%	36.7%	Neg

Historical backtesting revealed the highest average returns occurred at the 60-day mark: 16.36% to 76.50% depending on the entry range. At the 10-day checkpoint, outcomes clustered between -5.23% and +16.36%, demonstrating wide distribution across early-stage trade behavior.

Current Trade Performance

Metric	Value
Entry Date	April 14, 2026
Entry Price	$379.89
Review Date	April 27, 2026
Current Price	$404.98
Absolute Gain	+$25.09
Percentage Gain	+6.60%
Trading Days Elapsed	~10
Current Range Bucket	5-7%
Exit Threshold (10d)	0% or below
Maximum Stoploss	-10%
Current Status	Position profitable

Historical Comparison and Range Analysis

Current performance sits within the 5-7% range. Six historical instances reached this zone. What did those cases reveal?

Looking at historical outcomes from trades that hit the 5-7% range at the 10-day mark:

10-day average: 6.12% – Current position at 6.60% exceeds this baseline.
20-day average: 7.4% – Suggests modest further upside or consolidation within the next 10 trading days.
30-day average: 12.8% – Indicates potential for meaningful gains over three weeks.
60-day average: 27.2% – Historical sample at this range showed strong extension capability toward two months.
Sample size: N=6 cases provides moderate statistical weight. Not low volume data, but not overwhelming historical frequency either.

Current trajectory performs above the immediate 10-day baseline for this range. Position sits just above the expected 6.12% mean, suggesting near-term momentum remains intact. Trend continuation into 20-30 day timeframes would align with the signal’s historical distribution.

Exit Rules and Position Management

Two exit conditions define this trade:

Exit Rule 1: Performance-based exit. Close the position if performance falls to 0% or below within 10 trading days. Current status: +6.60%. Rule inactive.

Exit Rule 2: Risk-based exit. Maximum stoploss set at -10% from entry. Current drawdown: zero. Rule inactive.

Holding requirements met. Position advances to the 15-20 day observation window. At that point, compare actual price action against the 7.4% historical average from the 20-day mark. If position reaches 7.4% or above, consider locking in partial gains or trailing a stop order at 2x ATR(14) to capture longer-term momentum toward the 30-60 day targets.

Key Lessons and Observations

Early momentum outperformance: At 10 days, TSM has already exceeded the typical 10-day average (6.12%) for this historical range bucket. This suggests the signal’s triggering conditions identified genuine early-stage strength in the stock’s behavior and underlying catalysts.
Statistical alignment: The position falls within a well-sampled historical bracket (N=6). Past trades in this range showed no immediate cliff risk but demonstrated high 60-day return potential (27.2% average). Time decay favors patience and disciplined rule-following rather than early exit.
Risk management confirmation: Exit rules remain dormant, indicating proper position sizing relative to downside limits. The -10% stoploss cushion and zero-percent threshold have successfully filtered out weaker early signals. This position cleared those gatekeepers.

Next Observation Points

Monitor for price action at three key milestones:

15-20 trading days: Check if position holds or exceeds the 7.4% historical average for this range. This window confirms whether early momentum sustains.

25-30 trading days: Compare against the 12.8% historical mean for 30-day outcomes in this range. If price reaches this level, systematic traders might reduce position size and lock in the bulk of expected gains.

50-60 trading days: Historical data from this range showed 27.2% average return by the 60-day mark-more than 4x the current entry performance. Monitor for either target achievement or deteriorating momentum that would warrant closing early.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or an invitation to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading and investment strategies carry risk of loss. Historical backtesting results do not guarantee future performance. Readers must conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. StockBotty.com and its authors assume no liability for investment losses resulting from information contained herein.

Author Disclosure

This article discusses the author’s personal trade in TSM. The author holds or has held this position directly or through derivative instruments at the time of writing. This position was initiated according to the systematic trading methodology described herein. Readers should be aware that the author has a direct financial interest in the direction of this trade’s outcome. This is not a trading recommendation.

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