LLY Signal Follow-Up - 10 Days: +1.90% Performance Review

LLY Signal Follow-Up – 10 Days Review: +1.90% Performance

Executive Summary

The LLY trendchange signal triggered on August 10, 2026 at $1231.94. After approximately 10 trading days, the position stands at $1255.40, marking a gain of +1.90%. The position remains profitable and well within historical expectations for this performance range. Current status: hold. Monitor for next exit signal.

LLY Price Chart – August 22, 2026

The signal carried a 22.07% edge, meaning historical cases with similar technical structure delivered an average 22% gain over 60 days. This review focuses on whether the trade is tracking as the data predicted.

Position Status: PROFITABLE | Entry: Aug 10 at $1231.94 | Current: Aug 21 at $1255.40 | Gain: +$23.46 (+1.90%)

Signal Recap: What Was the Setup

LLY triggered a trendchange signal on August 10. The signal structure identified a confluence of reversal conditions: momentum compression, pivot rejection, and institutional accumulation volume aligned across multiple timeframes. The edge calculation showed that 37 historical instances with this exact configuration delivered an average 22.07% gain within 60 days.

Here is the complete signal performance table from historical backtesting:

Performance Range	Cases (N)	10-Day Avg	20-Day Avg	30-Day Avg	60-Day Avg	Signal
10-15%	1	10.82%	13.70%	15.80%	21.40%	Hold
7-10%	3	8.95%	11.90%	16.30%	51.80%	Hold
5-7%	3	6.04%	8.90%	9.10%	3.20%	Close
3-5%	8	3.91%	3.70%	5.90%	9.80%	Close
1-3%	10	1.81%	1.40%	6.50%	22.00%	Hold
0-1%	3	0.57%	2.50%	2.90%	-0.00%	Close
-1 to 0%	3	-0.58%	-0.40%	1.20%	18.60%	Neg
-3 to -1%	4	-2.00%	0.80%	0.80%	15.70%	Neg
Below -10%	1	-12.19%	-12.20%	-12.20%	-9.70%	Neg

Two exit rules govern this trade. First: close the position if performance drops to 1% or lower after 10 days. Second: liquidate at a stoploss of -10% to cap risk. The signal table shows that 10 historical cases landed in the 1-3% range after day 10. Those cases averaged 1.81% at 10 days, then 1.40% at 20 days before climbing to 6.50% at 30 days and 22.00% at 60 days.

Performance Review: Where We Stand Now

Metric	Value
Entry Date	August 10, 2026
Entry Price	$1231.94
Review Date	August 21, 2026
Current Price	$1255.40
Trading Days Elapsed	~10 days
Absolute Gain	+$23.46
Percentage Gain	+1.90%
Current Range	1-3%
Exit Threshold	Less than or equal to 1.0%
Max Stoploss	-10%
Current Status	Position Profitable

Historical Comparison: Is This Tracking as Expected

The position now sits at +1.90%, placing it squarely in the 1-3% range. This is exactly where the signal table predicted momentum would decelerate after 10 days. The 10 historical cases in this band showed an average 1.81% gain at this point in the holding period, so current performance is tracking slightly above the mean.

But the important detail lies in what happened after day 10. Those same cases showed momentum compression at the 20-day mark (dropping to 1.40%), then acceleration through days 21-30 (rising to 6.50%). By day 60, they’d delivered 22.00% on average. That’s within the signal’s 22.07% edge.

The trade is not stalled. It’s positioned in the zone where historical patterns have shown the most volatility but the highest payoff in the longer window. The exit rule requires the position to close only if it falls to 1% or lower by today. At 1.90%, it clears that threshold and remains a hold.

Exit Decision: Hold & Monitor

HOLD – Monitor for exit signal

The position remains above the 1% exit threshold. According to the exit rule, liquidation is required only if performance falls to 1% or below by the 10-day mark. Current performance of +1.90% satisfies the hold condition. Continue monitoring for the next decision point.

Next Targets: Based on historical trajectories from the 1-3% band, observe price action at the 20-day mark (approximately August 31). Historical cases showed either continued compression or sharp acceleration at that juncture. The 60-day average from this range was 22.00%, aligned with the signal edge.

Risk Management: Stoploss remains at -10% ($1108.75). No trailing stop adjustment is required at this stage. The position has room to move within the structure.

Lessons & Key Observations

Three patterns merit attention for future LLY trades and similar setups:

1. The Compression Zone Rewards Patience. The 1-3% performance band at day 10 appears deceptively flat. History shows these positions do not stall-they consolidate before acceleration. The 22% average gain at 60 days proves patience wins here.

2. Exit Rules Protect Against Over-Holding.. The rule to close at 1% or below isn’t a pessimistic read. It filters out cases that lose momentum entirely. By enforcing an early exit on weakness, the system avoids the -12% outlier case while keeping winners alive.

3. Day 20 Is a Critical Inflection. The signal table shows a trough at the 20-day mark for the 1-3% band (1.40%), followed by sharp recovery. Monitoring price behavior around August 31 will clarify whether this trade joins the strong performers or settles into sideways drift.

Conclusion

After 10 trading days, LLY has gained 1.90% and sits comfortably within the predicted performance envelope for this signal structure. The position satisfies all hold criteria. The exit threshold of 1% has not been breached, and the stoploss remains well above current price. The next meaningful observation window opens around day 20, when historical cases either compressed further or broke higher. Until then, this trade is performing as the signal’s historical data anticipated. Keep the stoploss active and monitor price structure as August approaches its close.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss. All performance figures, historical tables, and signal calculations reflect backtested data and the author’s observations of one specific position. Results may differ materially in live market conditions. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Author Disclosure

This article discusses the author’s personal trade in LLY entered on August 10, 2026. The author holds this position directly. This article is not a trading recommendation and should not be interpreted as an invitation to buy or sell LLY or any other security. The author’s analysis and observations reflect personal market documentation and trading journal practice, not professional investment advice.

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