LLY – Eli Lilly and Company

Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - General | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$1,255.40
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▲ Long
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control
+22.07%
Signal Edge
Strong positive edge across 1 signals – signal has a clear statistical advantage
47.7
Trend Strength (ADX)
Strong trend – directional signals reliable
Options Signals
3%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
67% / 33%
Call / Put Flow
Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
10.08.26
Date
Signal entry date
$1231.94
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
2d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+1.9%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+20d
Not yet reached
+30d
Not yet reached
+60d
Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Trend Intact – Bullish Setup Composite Score: +6 / 7

LLY is in a well-structured bull trend. All major signals are aligned: positive swing trend, rising momentum over 10 days, a fully aligned moving average stack, a golden cross in place, and trend strength confirmed by ADX at 47.7. This is the type of environment where trend-following strategies carry a structural edge.

What to watch

The trend is your friend here. As long as momentum strength continues to hold or rise, the path of least resistance remains higher. Manage the trade with a trailing stop rather than a fixed target.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest LLY Reports

Follow-Up from Signals and Trendchanges LLY Signal Follow-Up – 10 Days: +1.90% Performance Review
Aug 22, 2026
Aug 11, 2026

LLY Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $1,255.40  ·  ATR14: $3.34

Trend Intact – Bullish Setup Composite Score: +6 / 7

LLY is in a well-structured bull trend. All major signals are aligned: positive swing trend, rising momentum over 10 days, a fully aligned moving average stack, a golden cross in place, and trend strength confirmed by ADX at 47.7. This is the type of environment where trend-following strategies carry a structural edge.

What to watch

The trend is your friend here. As long as momentum strength continues to hold or rise, the path of least resistance remains higher. Manage the trade with a trailing stop rather than a fixed target.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▲ Long Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 10d Strength: 0.62 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX) 47.7 – Strong ADX38: 12.4
Volatility (HV30) 36.6% – Calm HV90: 36.9% | HV180: 37.1%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance 14.79 ATR ↑ EMA21: $1,186.13
GD200 Extension 5.8 ATR – Normal GD20: 1.4 | GD50: 1.9 | GD100: 4.7
🚀 Momentum Accelerating
Upward momentum active for 10 days and still gaining strength (current: 0.62). Trend is building, not fading.
💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 47.7 (Strong)
A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 12.4. Trend-following has clear edge here.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 36.6% | HV90: 36.9% | HV180: 37.1%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $1,179.58 above GD200 $1,052.98 by 12.02%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.
📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating
Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($1,186.13) with 14.79 ATR distance and growing.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $1,198.10 (1.4 ATR) | GD50: $1,179.58 (1.9 ATR) | GD100: $1,083.99 (4.7 ATR) | GD200: $1,052.98 (5.8 ATR). ATR14: $3.34.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -1.75 -0.48 5.58 -3.25 -5.52 2.92 7.49 -6.34 6.82 -3.65 -2.59 2.28 3.33
2011 -0.62 -0.49 2.66 5.79 4.47 -1.08 1.68 0.19 -0.45 2.29 3.06 10.41 25.33
2012 -4.95 -0.17 2.34 2.24 0.46 6.86 2.43 3.57 4.67 2.22 0.89 0.83 23.53
2013 8.43 1.79 3.67 -2.15 -1.15 -7.57 5.87 -3.05 -1.91 -1.68 0.66 1.51 6.87
2014 6.46 14.23 -0.28 0.49 1.41 4.50 -2.30 5.58 1.83 1.91 3.12 0.70 40.48
2015 2.77 -1.43 2.15 0.47 8.66 5.68 -0.40 -1.55 4.87 -4.23 0.64 -2.60 23.48
2016 -4.55 -7.52 -1.01 2.86 -1.60 5.09 4.98 -5.92 3.92 -8.84 -7.43 11.50 -8.85
2017 3.26 7.43 0.30 -2.83 -2.12 2.89 -0.04 -0.68 6.81 -5.12 T
2.75
-1.01 16.18
2018 -3.83 -5.85 1.14 T
7.09
8.29 0.56 15.08 7.63 2.57 0.78 T
10.55
-2.37 40.08
2019 T
4.34
5.04 0.71 -9.31 -1.34 -5.12 -3.36 T
2.80
-1.87 2.69 T
4.90
12.59 16.99
2020 5.62 -10.09 4.43 T
13.36
0.02 T
7.69
-7.97 -2.43 0.49 T
-9.58
T
11.22
16.00 30.27
2021 25.66 1.28 -9.52 -1.33 T
7.90
15.68 5.35 5.08 -10.24 T
10.96
-0.19 T
10.88
69.44
2022 -9.69 1.09 T
14.78
-0.18 T
8.61
T
4.23
1.54 -6.77 T
4.60
12.61 5.54 -1.21 36.47
2023 -5.71 -8.86 T
9.31
12.86 6.10 7.44 -1.49 22.32 -3.59 T
2.91
6.60 -0.19 63.82
2024 T
9.02
14.12 -0.53 2.70 T
5.61
8.92 -12.04 T
15.33
-7.38 -6.19 -2.88 -3.48 30.36
2025 T
4.24
13.60 -11.17 T
11.64
-7.11 T
4.34
-4.62 -3.90 T
3.78
4.54 19.96 1.59 38.12
2026 -4.00 0.75 -9.65 -2.09 T
14.71
10.83 -3.60 T
11.95
16.20

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for LLY:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
10.08.26 $1231.94 2d +1.9% +0% +0% +0%
06.05.26 $987.05 38d +3.48% +9.29% +12.66% +27.19%
02.09.25 $735.19 60d +1.77% +0.91% +11.45% +70.76%
25.06.25 $792.30 16d -0.68% +0.83% +2% +4.18%
25.04.25 $884.54 12d -12.19% -12.19% -12.19% -9.68%
30.01.25 $823.23 33d +6.04% +9.95% +5.63% -5.65%
14.08.24 $931.68 23d +2.45% -1.16% -0.76% -6.67%
02.05.24 $755.91 61d +4.12% +7.83% +16.86% +22.31%
03.01.24 $617.70 66d +1.81% +4.52% +22.6% +46.45%
11.10.23 $605.28 26d -2.12% -0.88% -2.09% +22.28%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for LLY: 22.07%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
10-15% 1 +10.82% +13.74% +15.77% +21.4% Hold
7-10% 3 +8.95% +11.89% +16.28% +51.82% Hold
5-7% 3 +6.04% +8.88% +9.08% +3.19% Close
3-5% 8 +3.91% +3.68% +5.87% +9.82% Close
1-3% 10 +1.81% +1.35% +6.51% +22.02% Hold
0-1% 3 +0.57% +2.54% +2.86% -0.02% Close
-1-0% 3 -0.58% -0.44% +1.19% +18.57% Neg
-3-1% 4 -2% +0.77% +0.76% +15.7% Neg
<-10% 1 -12.19% -12.19% -12.19% -9.68% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 12.8

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
3%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
67% / 33%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
23,821,680.8
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$1,177.50 · 6.2%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$1,220.00 · 2.8%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$1,255.40
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

LLY GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

LLY GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 3% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (67% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages
Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid
Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels
Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility
Risks
Time decay (theta) works against the position every day
Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid
Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration
FAQ: Long Call
What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 3% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap$1.05 T
PE Ratio (TTM)39.68
Forward PE24.93
PEG Ratio1.49
EV/EBITDA26.94
Price/Sales13.21
Price/Book33.80
Beta0.51

Profitability

MetricValue
Gross Margin83.40%
Operating Margin54.22%
Net Margin33.53%
ROE102.29%
ROA20.36%

Dividends

MetricValue
Annual Dividend$6.92
Forward Yield57.00%
Payout Ratio21.69%
Dividend Date2026-09-09

Analyst Consensus (27 Analysts)

MetricValue
Median Target$1344
High Target$1600
Low Target$850

About Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron; strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics for development of therapies for undisclosed monogenic kidney diseases; and BioArctic AB (publ) for new treatment. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

ETF Holdings

Eli Lilly and Company is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF Weight
XLV 14.36%
SPY 1.27%

Frequently Asked Questions – Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.