How is LLY valued relative to the market?

LLY currently trades at a trailing P/E of 38.21x and a forward P/E of 24.09x. The stock has a beta of 0.50, meaning it moves roughly less than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is LLY?

LLY reports a gross margin of 83.40%, an operating margin of 54.22%, a net profit margin of 33.53%. Return on equity stands at 102.29% and return on assets at 20.36%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does LLY pay a dividend?

LLY pays an annual dividend of $6.92, representing a forward yield of 62.00%. The payout ratio is 21.69%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-09-09. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for LLY?

Based on a consensus of 29 analysts, the median price target is $1,376.00, the most optimistic target is $1,600.00, the most conservative target is $930.00. At the current price of $1,188.72, the median target implies 99.9% downside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

LLY is held by 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in XLV (14.36%), SPY (1.27%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence LLY's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for LLY?

As of the most recent session, LLY closed at $1,188.72. The swing trend is negative with ADX at 70.8 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 11 days. A Golden Cross is in place. Volatility has been compressing for 10 consecutive sessions. 30-day historical volatility is at 19.4%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for LLY and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for LLY fired on 10.08.26 at $1231.94. The position has been held for 6 trading days. 10-day return from entry: +1.90%. 20-day return: -4.53%. The historical edge of the signal system for LLY is +6.45% across 125 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the 10-15% range, averaging 11.6% at 10 days and 10.8% at 60 days.

LLY – Eli Lilly and Company

Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - General | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$1,188.72

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▼ Short

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control

+6.45%

Signal Edge

Slim positive edge across 5 signals – treat with caution

70.8

Trend Strength (ADX)

Strong trend – directional signals reliable

Options Signals

11%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

68% / 32%

Call / Put Flow

Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow

Last Trendchange Signal

10.08.26

Date

Signal entry date

$1231.94

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

Days Held

Trading days since signal

+1.9%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

-4.53%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

-4.53%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

–

+60d

Not yet reached

Trend Overview

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: +4 / 7

LLY has been in a volatility compression for 10 consecutive sessions. Price is coiling and the range is contracting. This kind of structure typically resolves with an expansion in one direction – and the underlying trend bias remains negative, which tilts the probability toward a downside continuation. The key question is not if the move happens, but when and which way.

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 23.2 Long Call 📖 View full options analysis →

LLY Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $1,188.72 · ATR14: $2.79

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: +4 / 7

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▼ Short	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▲ Up · 11d	Strength: 0.24 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX)	70.8 – Strong	ADX38: 12.4
Volatility (HV30)	19.4% – Calm	HV90: 30.6% \| HV180: 36.2%
Vola Compression	10 days active	Potential breakout building
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance	0.80 ATR ↑	EMA21: $1,149.38
GD200 Extension	3.8 ATR – Normal	GD20: 1.0 \| GD50: 0.4 \| GD100: 1.0

🚀 Momentum Accelerating

Upward momentum active for 11 days and still gaining strength (current: 0.24). Trend is building, not fading.

💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 70.8 (Strong)

A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 12.4. Trend-following has clear edge here.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 19.4% | HV90: 30.6% | HV180: 36.2%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

🗜️ Volatility Compression – 10 Days Active

Price has been compressing for 10 sessions. The longer the compression, the more powerful the potential breakout.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $1,174.29 above GD200 $1,075.50 by 9.19%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).

⚡ EMA21 – Fresh Cross

Price has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $1,149.38, now trading above. Often marks a near-term directional shift.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $1,155.81 (1.0 ATR) | GD50: $1,174.29 (0.4 ATR) | GD100: $1,155.81 (1.0 ATR) | GD200: $1,075.50 (3.8 ATR). ATR14: $2.79.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-1.75	-0.48	5.58	-3.25	-5.52	2.92	7.49	-6.34	6.82	-3.65	-2.59	2.28	3.33
2011	-0.62	-0.49	2.66	5.79	4.47	-1.08	1.68	0.19	-0.45	2.29	3.06	10.41	25.33
2012	-4.95	-0.17	2.34	2.24	0.46	6.86	2.43	3.57	4.67	2.22	0.89	0.83	23.53
2013	8.43	1.79	3.67	-2.15	-1.15	-7.57	5.87	-3.05	-1.91	-1.68	0.66	1.51	6.87
2014	6.46	14.23	-0.28	0.49	1.41	4.50	-2.30	5.58	1.83	1.91	3.12	0.70	40.48
2015	2.77	-1.43	2.15	0.47	8.66	5.68	-0.40	-1.55	4.87	-4.23	0.64	-2.60	23.48
2016	-4.55	-7.52	-1.01	2.86	-1.60	5.09	4.98	-5.92	3.92	-8.84	-7.43	11.50	-8.85
2017	3.26	7.43	0.30	-2.83	-2.12	2.89	-0.04	-0.68	6.81	-5.12	T 2.75	-1.01	16.18
2018	-3.83	-5.85	1.14	T 7.09	8.29	0.56	15.08	7.63	2.57	0.78	T 10.55	-2.37	40.08
2019	T 4.34	5.04	0.71	-9.31	-1.34	-5.12	-3.36	T 2.80	-1.87	2.69	T 4.90	12.59	16.99
2020	5.62	-10.09	4.43	T 13.36	0.02	T 7.69	-7.97	-2.43	0.49	T -9.58	T 11.22	16.00	30.27
2021	25.66	1.28	-9.52	-1.33	T 7.90	15.68	5.35	5.08	-10.24	T 10.96	-0.19	T 10.88	69.44
2022	-9.69	1.09	T 14.78	-0.18	T 8.61	T 4.23	1.54	-6.77	T 4.60	12.61	5.54	-1.21	36.47
2023	-5.71	-8.86	T 9.31	12.86	6.10	7.44	-1.49	22.32	-3.59	T 2.91	6.60	-0.19	63.82
2024	T 9.02	14.12	-0.53	2.70	T 5.61	8.92	-12.04	T 15.33	-7.38	-6.19	-2.88	-3.48	30.36
2025	T 4.24	13.60	-11.17	T 11.64	-7.11	T 4.34	-4.62	-3.90	T 3.78	4.54	19.96	1.59	38.12
2026	-4.00	0.75	-9.65	-2.09	T 14.71	10.83	-3.60	T 3.15	-0.25	3.38			10.03

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

LLY - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for LLY:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
10.08.26	$1231.94	6d	+1.9%	-4.53%	-4.53%	+0%
06.05.26	$987.05	37d	+3.48%	+9.29%	+12.66%	+16.77%
02.09.25	$735.19	27d	+1.77%	+0.91%	+0.91%	+0.91%
25.06.25	$792.30	8d	-1.61%	-1.61%	-1.61%	-1.61%
25.04.25	$884.54	12d	-12.19%	-12.19%	-12.19%	-12.19%
30.01.25	$823.23	33d	+6.04%	+9.95%	+5.63%	+5.63%
14.08.24	$931.68	23d	+2.45%	-2.03%	-2.03%	-2.03%
02.05.24	$755.91	57d	+4.12%	+7.83%	+16.86%	+19.8%
03.01.24	$617.70	50d	+1.81%	+4.52%	+22.6%	+23.38%
11.10.23	$605.28	12d	-2.12%	-7.44%	-7.44%	-7.44%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for LLY: 6.45%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
10-15%	5	+11.62%	+10.82%	+10.92%	+10.85%	Hold
7-10%	12	+8.27%	+11.2%	+12.3%	+17.58%	Hold
5-7%	9	+5.8%	+8.54%	+9.9%	+10.83%	Hold
3-5%	11	+3.83%	+4.65%	+5.47%	+6%	Hold
1-3%	26	+1.8%	+2.78%	+4.02%	+4.81%	Hold
0-1%	9	+0.58%	+2.44%	+2.19%	+2.34%	Close
-1-0%	15	-0.5%	-0.76%	-0.73%	+0.76%	Neg
-3-1%	26	-1.86%	-0.86%	-0.84%	+0.21%	Neg
-5-3%	6	-3.87%	-3.87%	-2.47%	-1.19%	Neg
-7-5%	3	-5.99%	-5.31%	-5.31%	-1.54%	Neg
<-10%	3	-11.24%	-11.24%	-11.24%	-7.86%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 23.2

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

11%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

68% / 32%

More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.

GEX (Mio.)

61,965,298.3

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$1,145.00 · 3.7%

The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.

Max Pain

$1,160.00 · 2.4%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$1,188.72

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

LLY GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 2 Long Call Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 11% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (68% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages

✓ Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid

✓ Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels

✓ Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility

Risks

✕ Time decay (theta) works against the position every day

✕ Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid

✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration

▶ FAQ: Long Call

What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Setup 2 of 2 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 11% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$1.01 T
PE Ratio (TTM)	38.21
Forward PE	24.09
PEG Ratio	1.10
EV/EBITDA	25.43
Price/Sales	12.74
Price/Book	29.95
Beta	0.50

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	83.40%
Operating Margin	54.22%
Net Margin	33.53%
ROE	102.29%
ROA	20.36%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$6.92
Forward Yield	62.00%
Payout Ratio	21.69%
Dividend Date	2026-09-09

Analyst Consensus (29 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$1376
High Target	$1600
Low Target	$930

About Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron; strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics for development of therapies for undisclosed monogenic kidney diseases; and BioArctic AB (publ) for new treatment. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

ETF Holdings

Eli Lilly and Company is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
XLV	14.36%
SPY	1.27%

Frequently Asked Questions – Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.