TSM – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Technology | Semiconductors | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$418.95
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▼ Short
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control
+23.71%
Signal Edge
Strong positive edge across 1 signals – signal has a clear statistical advantage
23.7
Trend Strength (ADX)
Moderate strength – trend forming, not confirmed
Options Signals
3%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored
58% / 42%
Call / Put Flow
Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced
Last Trendchange Signal
14.04.26
Date
Signal entry date
$379.89
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
26d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
+6.6%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
+6.49%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
+8.54%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
+15.03%
+60d
Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: -2 / 7

TSM has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $413.18, now trading above the line. Bulls have reclaimed a key reference. Whether this becomes a sustained move or a failed breakout depends on momentum confirming in the sessions ahead.

What to watch

The cross is a signal, not a confirmation. Watch for a successful retest of the EMA21 from above – that would be the higher-confidence entry.

Options Signal Highlight

Latest TSM Reports

Follow-Up from Signals and Trendchanges TSM Signal Follow-Up 10 Days +6.60% Edge 22.02%
Apr 28, 2026

TSM Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 21.08.2026  ·  Close: $418.95  ·  ATR14: $3.26

EMA21 Cross – Directional Shift Composite Score: -2 / 7

TSM has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $413.18, now trading above the line. Bulls have reclaimed a key reference. Whether this becomes a sustained move or a failed breakout depends on momentum confirming in the sessions ahead.

What to watch

The cross is a signal, not a confirmation. Watch for a successful retest of the EMA21 from above – that would be the higher-confidence entry.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▼ Short Primary directional bias
Momentum ▲ Up · 13d Strength: 0.29 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 23.7 – Moderate ADX38: 12.2
Volatility (HV30) 38.9% – Calm HV90: 46.4% | HV180: 42.5%
Vola Compression None Normal range
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance ~0 ATR – Near line EMA21: $413.18
GD200 Extension 4.4 ATR – Normal GD20: 0.4 | GD50: -0.4 | GD100: 0.7
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 13 days but strength is declining (0.29). The trend is intact but losing energy.
🟡 Trend Strength – ADX14: 23.7 (Moderate)
Moderate trend strength. ADX38: 12.2. Sufficient for directional bias but not ideal for aggressive sizing.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 38.9% | HV90: 46.4% | HV180: 42.5%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $424.52 above GD200 $366.38 by 15.87%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).
⚡ EMA21 – Fresh Cross
Price has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $413.18, now trading above. Often marks a near-term directional shift.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $413.35 (0.4 ATR) | GD50: $424.52 (-0.4 ATR) | GD100: $409.72 (0.7 ATR) | GD200: $366.38 (4.4 ATR). ATR14: $3.26.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -12.36 -3.16 5.44 -0.15 -8.51 -0.97 8.29 -8.42 5.85 6.51 -1.25 12.82 13.60
2011 3.86 -6.89 0.00 10.56 1.12 -3.88 -4.17 -4.41 -3.79 11.71 3.74 -2.31 6.87
2012 6.14 2.36 4.37 1.13 -11.61 6.90 1.43 5.97 10.06 0.00 7.24 0.49 33.99
2013 -2.02 1.01 -5.85 11.76 -2.35 -2.03 -5.40 -4.04 0.40 5.73 -3.99 0.24 -0.93
2014 -1.27 7.74 11.06 -1.08 4.01 3.57 -6.90 3.64 -4.31 9.57 7.20 -2.45 33.47
2015 1.92 6.93 -4.72 5.18 -1.89 -2.93 -3.56 -8.47 6.94 5.28 2.99 -2.28 5.34
2016 1.17 4.84 6.59 -9.67 4.32 7.79 4.70 0.44 5.60 1.22 -3.33 0.70 35.05
2017 5.45 1.29 3.99 0.57 5.87 0.59 3.08 3.17 0.88 11.00 -5.94 -0.12 39.68
2018 T
10.46 		-4.63 T
2.43 		-9.53 -0.59 -3.30 T
12.76 		4.53 0.11 -14.67 -3.73 -4.70 -6.72
2019 T
3.00 		3.94 4.00 5.92 -12.48 4.21 T
3.03 		1.81 T
12.24 		9.41 1.89 10.43 66.60
2020 -10.14 T
-1.69 		-13.82 T
14.23 		-1.51 T
12.08 		38.84 0.37 -0.07 T
1.52 		13.19 8.56 86.46
2021 8.80 -0.57 -8.05 -6.46 1.23 T
1.79 		-1.50 1.84 T
-6.93 		1.92 T
2.66 		T
0.15 		9.43
2022 -4.79 -13.04 -3.03 -9.59 1.64 T
-13.27 		T
14.91 		-3.43 -15.55 -11.12 T
34.74 		-9.41 -40.92
2023 T
25.27 		-3.96 T
5.20 		T
-9.20 		T
17.40 		2.10 -3.88 -4.91 -6.75 T
-1.53 		10.83 5.53 46.81
2024 11.26 13.48 1.61 -2.93 T
11.93 		12.17 -3.79 T
8.55 		8.21 10.73 -4.30 T
1.59 		94.51
2025 3.84 -9.64 -4.03 -1.16 T
11.93 		16.24 7.54 -1.85 T
22.29 		4.15 -4.38 T
5.63 		50.75
2026 3.43 9.73 -8.44 T
15.98 		5.23 9.63 -9.00 3.16 31.08

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for TSM:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
14.04.26 $379.89 26d +6.6% +6.49% +8.54% +15.03%
26.12.25 $302.84 44d +6.87% +9.86% +17.36% +44.2%
08.12.25 $301.87 3d -4.97% +0% +0% +0%
08.09.25 $247.18 53d +7.16% +18.21% +19.38% +38.22%
01.05.25 $172.72 65d +12.76% +14.14% +24.73% +76.51%
05.12.24 $204.30 17d -4.28% +2.11% +7.05% +12.46%
21.08.24 $171.44 28d +0.15% -2.43% +2.54% +31.02%
06.05.24 $142.83 44d +6.2% +8.49% +24.09% +29.18%
12.10.23 $92.42 54d -5.17% -0.45% +6.74% +85.24%
18.05.23 $92.65 18d +6.68% +13.52% +8.93% +10.67%

Signal Statistics – Historical Edge

Calculated edge for TSM: 23.71%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
15-20% 1 +16.36% +21.58% +16.78% +18.52% Hold
10-15% 1 +12.76% +14.14% +24.73% +76.51% Hold
7-10% 3 +8.52% +13.73% +12.97% +19.98% Hold
5-7% 6 +6.12% +8.5% +14.25% +31.44% Hold
3-5% 1 +4.75% +1.3% +3.39% +0% Close
1-3% 7 +1.92% +3.32% +5.81% +15.93% Hold
0-1% 4 +0.6% -0.01% +3.33% +16.62% Hold
-1-0% 2 -0.81% +2.42% +6.14% +14.06% Neg
-3-1% 2 -1.9% -1.73% -1.85% -4.09% Neg
-5-3% 2 -4.62% +1.05% +3.52% +6.23% Neg
-7-5% 2 -5.23% -2.87% +0.73% +36.72% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 0% after 10 days

Signal data as of August 21, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 7.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
3%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
58% / 42%
Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.
GEX (Mio.)
6,984,431.7
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$415.00 · 0.9%
GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.
Max Pain
$417.50 · 0.3%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$418.95
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

TSM GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

TSM GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 3% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages
✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
▶ FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap$2.21 T
PE Ratio (TTM)32.47
Forward PE19.57
PEG Ratio1.01
EV/EBITDA4.84
Price/Sales0.50
Price/Book88.92
Beta1.26

Profitability

MetricValue
Gross Margin64.23%
Operating Margin60.34%
Net Margin49.92%
ROE39.97%
ROA19.01%

Dividends

MetricValue
Annual Dividend$4.34
Forward Yield101.00%
Payout Ratio25.74%
Dividend Date2026-10-07

Analyst Consensus (18 Analysts)

MetricValue
Median Target$536
High Target$700
Low Target$431.5

About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

ETF Holdings

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF Weight
SMH 10.82%
BLOK 1.60%

Frequently Asked Questions – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.