How is TSM valued relative to the market?

TSM currently trades at a trailing P/E of 30.83x and a forward P/E of 19.07x. The stock has a beta of 1.25, meaning it moves roughly more than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is TSM?

TSM reports a gross margin of 64.23%, an operating margin of 60.34%, a net profit margin of 49.92%. Return on equity stands at 39.97% and return on assets at 19.00%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does TSM pay a dividend?

TSM pays an annual dividend of $4.08, representing a forward yield of 94.00%. The payout ratio is 25.74%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The next scheduled dividend date is 2027-01-06. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for TSM?

Based on a consensus of 20 analysts, the median price target is $536.00, the most optimistic target is $700.00, the most conservative target is $440.00. At the current price of $472.20, the median target implies 13.5% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

TSM is held by 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in SMH (10.82%), BLOK (1.60%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence TSM's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for TSM?

As of the most recent session, TSM closed at $472.20. The swing trend is positive with ADX at 49.4 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 14 days. A Golden Cross is in place. 30-day historical volatility is at 27.1%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for TSM and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for TSM fired on 14.04.26 at $379.89. The position has been held for 19 trading days. 10-day return from entry: +6.60%. 20-day return: +6.49%. The historical edge of the signal system for TSM is +6.88% across 97 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the >20% range, averaging 22.5% at 10 days and 25.5% at 60 days.

TSM – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Technology | Semiconductors | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$472.20

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▲ Long

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control

+6.88%

Signal Edge

Slim positive edge across 1 signals – treat with caution

49.4

Trend Strength (ADX)

Strong trend – directional signals reliable

Options Signals

13%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

53% / 47%

Call / Put Flow

Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced

Last Trendchange Signal

14.04.26

Date

Signal entry date

$379.89

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

19d

Days Held

Trading days since signal

+6.6%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

+6.49%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

+4.23%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

+4.23%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Trend Extended – Protect Gains Composite Score: +1 / 7

TSM has had a strong run, but the trend shows the first clear signs of fatigue. After 14 days of positive momentum, strength is now declining while price sits 9.5 ATR above the 200-day moving average at $390.13. At this distance from long-term equilibrium, mean-reversion pressure tends to increase.

What to watch

A fresh entry does not present itself here. For those already in the trade, this is a logical zone to tighten stops, scale out partial positions, or at minimum recalibrate risk-reward.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 10.5 Long Straddle 📖 View full options analysis →

TSM Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $472.20 · ATR14: $2.22

Trend Extended – Protect Gains Composite Score: +1 / 7

What to watch

A fresh entry does not present itself here. For those already in the trade, this is a logical zone to tighten stops, scale out partial positions, or at minimum recalibrate risk-reward.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▲ Long	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▲ Up · 14d	Strength: 0.97 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX)	49.4 – Strong	ADX38: 15.8
Volatility (HV30)	27.1% – Calm	HV90: 42.9% \| HV180: 41.5%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance	1.96 ATR ↓	EMA21: $447.21
GD200 Extension	9.5 ATR – Extended	GD20: 2.4 \| GD50: 4.4 \| GD100: 4.7

⚠️ Momentum Fading

Upward momentum has been running 14 days but strength is declining (0.97). The trend is intact but losing energy.

💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 49.4 (Strong)

A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 15.8. Trend-following has clear edge here.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 27.1% | HV90: 42.9% | HV180: 41.5%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $429.81 above GD200 $390.13 by 10.17%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.

📉 EMA21 – Gap Narrowing

Price is 1.96 ATR from the EMA21 ($447.21) but the distance is shrinking.

📏 Extended Move

9.5 ATR from the 200-day SMA. The trend may be maturing. Disciplined stop management becomes increasingly important.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $447.97 (2.4 ATR) | GD50: $429.81 (4.4 ATR) | GD100: $427.68 (4.7 ATR) | GD200: $390.13 (9.5 ATR). ATR14: $2.22.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-12.36	-3.16	5.44	-0.15	-8.51	-0.97	8.29	-8.42	5.85	6.51	-1.25	12.82	13.60
2011	3.86	-6.89	0.00	10.56	1.12	-3.88	-4.17	-4.41	-3.79	11.71	3.74	-2.31	6.87
2012	6.14	2.36	4.37	1.13	-11.61	6.90	1.43	5.97	10.06	0.00	7.24	0.49	33.99
2013	-2.02	1.01	-5.85	11.76	-2.35	-2.03	-5.40	-4.04	0.40	5.73	-3.99	0.24	-0.93
2014	-1.27	7.74	11.06	-1.08	4.01	3.57	-6.90	3.64	-4.31	9.57	7.20	-2.45	33.47
2015	1.92	6.93	-4.72	5.18	-1.89	-2.93	-3.56	-8.47	6.94	5.28	2.99	-2.28	5.34
2016	1.17	4.84	6.59	-9.67	4.32	7.79	4.70	0.44	5.60	1.22	-3.33	0.70	35.05
2017	T 5.45	1.29	3.99	0.57	5.87	0.59	3.08	3.17	0.88	11.00	-5.94	-0.12	39.68
2018	T 10.46	-4.63	T 2.43	-9.53	-0.59	-3.30	T 12.76	4.53	0.11	-14.67	-3.73	-4.70	-6.72
2019	T 3.00	3.94	4.00	5.92	-12.48	4.21	T 3.03	1.81	T 12.24	9.41	1.89	10.43	66.60
2020	-10.14	T -1.69	-13.82	T 14.23	-1.51	T 12.08	38.84	0.37	-0.07	T 1.52	13.19	8.56	86.46
2021	8.80	-0.57	-8.05	-6.46	1.23	T 1.79	-1.50	1.84	T -6.93	1.92	T 2.66	T 0.15	9.43
2022	-4.79	-13.04	-3.03	-9.59	1.64	T -13.27	T 14.91	-3.43	-15.55	-11.12	T 34.74	-9.41	-40.92
2023	T 25.27	-3.96	5.20	T -9.20	T 17.40	2.10	-3.88	-4.91	-6.75	T -1.53	10.83	5.53	46.81
2024	11.26	13.48	1.61	-2.93	T 11.93	12.17	-3.79	T 8.55	8.21	10.73	-4.30	T 1.59	94.51
2025	3.84	-9.64	-4.03	-1.16	T 11.93	16.24	7.54	-1.85	T 22.29	4.15	-4.38	T 5.63	50.75
2026	3.43	9.73	-8.44	T 15.98	5.23	9.63	-9.00	2.27	10.19	2.83			47.74

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

TSM - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for TSM:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
14.04.26	$379.89	19d	+6.6%	+6.49%	+4.23%	+4.23%
26.12.25	$302.84	29d	+6.87%	+9.86%	+10.87%	+10.87%
08.12.25	$301.87	3d	-4.97%	+0%	+0%	+0%
08.09.25	$247.18	47d	+7.16%	+18.21%	+19.38%	+23.34%
01.05.25	$172.72	50d	+12.76%	+14.14%	+24.73%	+38.37%
05.12.24	$204.30	14d	-4.28%	+2.11%	+7.05%	-5.87%
21.08.24	$171.44	8d	+0.15%	+0.15%	+0.15%	+0.15%
06.05.24	$142.83	44d	+6.2%	+8.49%	+24.09%	+19.86%
12.10.23	$92.42	8d	-5.17%	-5.38%	-5.38%	-5.38%
18.05.23	$92.65	18d	+6.68%	+13.52%	+9.99%	+9.99%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for TSM: 6.88%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
>20%	1	+22.5%	+25.5%	+25.5%	+25.5%	Hold
15-20%	2	+16.79%	+29.72%	+28.76%	+35.67%	Hold
10-15%	5	+11.92%	+7.22%	+12.49%	+14.82%	Hold
7-10%	8	+8.64%	+11.94%	+11.09%	+9.46%	Close
5-7%	10	+6.04%	+7.39%	+9.78%	+12.31%	Hold
3-5%	6	+3.86%	+3.18%	+5.57%	+5.51%	Close
1-3%	13	+2.07%	+3.3%	+4.34%	+7.29%	Hold
0-1%	8	+0.76%	+0.9%	+2.45%	+2%	Close
-1-0%	7	-0.74%	+1.59%	+3.73%	+3.65%	Neg
-3-1%	16	-2.05%	-0.98%	-1.3%	-1.32%	Neg
-5-3%	10	-4.31%	-3.69%	-2.02%	-3.49%	Neg
-7-5%	7	-5.55%	-5.58%	-4.8%	-3.11%	Neg
-10-7%	4	-7.56%	-9.19%	-9.19%	-7.35%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 10.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

13%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

53% / 47%

Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.

GEX (Mio.)

49,754,159.5

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$465.00 · 1.5%

GEX flip strike is very close to spot price. Crossing this level can trigger a regime change – from suppressed to amplified volatility.

Max Pain

$465.00 · 1.5%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$472.20

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

TSM GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 1 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 13% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$2.17 T
PE Ratio (TTM)	30.83
Forward PE	19.07
PEG Ratio	0.82
EV/EBITDA	4.72
Price/Sales	0.49
Price/Book	85.38
Beta	1.25

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	64.23%
Operating Margin	60.34%
Net Margin	49.92%
ROE	39.97%
ROA	19.00%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$4.08
Forward Yield	94.00%
Payout Ratio	25.74%
Dividend Date	2027-01-06

Analyst Consensus (20 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$536
High Target	$700
Low Target	$440

About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

ETF Holdings

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
SMH	10.82%
BLOK	1.60%

Frequently Asked Questions – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.