How is MSFT valued relative to the market?

MSFT currently trades at a trailing P/E of 28.17x and a forward P/E of 21.42x. The stock has a beta of 1.11, meaning it moves roughly more than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is MSFT?

MSFT reports a gross margin of 67.94%, an operating margin of 45.11%, a net profit margin of 40.31%. Return on equity stands at 34.04% and return on assets at 14.09%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does MSFT pay a dividend?

MSFT pays an annual dividend of $3.64, representing a forward yield of 73.00%. The payout ratio is 19.83%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-09-09. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for MSFT?

Based on a consensus of 52 analysts, the median price target is $555.00, the most optimistic target is $870.00, the most conservative target is $400.00. At the current price of $529.76, the median target implies 4.8% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

Which ETFs hold MSFT?

MSFT is held by 8 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in XLK (10.12%), IGV (9.16%), QQQ (5.60%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence MSFT's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for MSFT?

As of the most recent session, MSFT closed at $529.76. The swing trend is positive with ADX at 66.6 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 9 days. A Golden Cross is in place. 30-day historical volatility is at 22.3%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for MSFT and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for MSFT fired on 30.07.26 at $451.10. The position has been held for 30 trading days. 10-day return from entry: +9.16%. 20-day return: +10.04%. The historical edge of the signal system for MSFT is +3.22% across 121 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the 15-20% range, averaging 17.1% at 10 days and 19.3% at 60 days.

MSFT – Microsoft Corporation

Technology | Software - Infrastructure | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$529.76

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▲ Long

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control

+3.22%

Signal Edge

Slim positive edge across 2 signals – treat with caution

66.6

Trend Strength (ADX)

Strong trend – directional signals reliable

Options Signals

12%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

66% / 34%

Call / Put Flow

Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow

Last Trendchange Signal

30.07.26

Date

Signal entry date

$451.10

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

30d

Days Held

Trading days since signal

+9.16%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

+10.04%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

+9.16%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

+10.2%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Trend Building – Constructive Composite Score: +3 / 7

MSFT is trending in a positive direction but the setup is not yet fully developed. Momentum has been running for 9 days and is still gaining strength – the trend is building. The overall configuration is constructive but not yet at peak alignment.

What to watch

The trend deserves respect but not blind confidence. Position sizing should reflect the incomplete alignment. A further improvement in momentum strength and ADX would raise conviction.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 17 Long Call 📖 View full options analysis →

MSFT Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $529.76 · ATR14: $2.15

Trend Building – Constructive Composite Score: +3 / 7

What to watch

The trend deserves respect but not blind confidence. Position sizing should reflect the incomplete alignment. A further improvement in momentum strength and ADX would raise conviction.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▲ Long	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▲ Up · 9d	Strength: 0.63 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX)	66.6 – Strong	ADX38: 34.2
Volatility (HV30)	22.3% – Calm	HV90: 38.2% \| HV180: 36.3%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance	1.89 ATR ↓	EMA21: $504.23
GD200 Extension	10.3 ATR – Exhausted	GD20: 2.1 \| GD50: 3.2 \| GD100: 8.6

🚀 Momentum Accelerating

Upward momentum active for 9 days and still gaining strength (current: 0.63). Trend is building, not fading.

💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 66.6 (Strong)

A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 34.2. Trend-following has clear edge here.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 22.3% | HV90: 38.2% | HV180: 36.3%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $496.13 above GD200 $433.57 by 14.43%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.

📉 EMA21 – Gap Narrowing

Price is 1.89 ATR from the EMA21 ($504.23) but the distance is shrinking.

🚨 Trend Potentially Exhausted

10.3 ATR above the 200-day SMA. Historically an area where mean-reversion pressure becomes significant.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $506.62 (2.1 ATR) | GD50: $496.13 (3.2 ATR) | GD100: $447.33 (8.6 ATR) | GD200: $433.57 (10.3 ATR). ATR14: $2.15.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-8.93	1.41	0.92	4.69	-15.98	-11.09	11.43	-10.40	2.42	9.40	-5.67	7.19	-7.94
2011	-0.94	-4.44	-2.93	1.74	-1.93	6.40	5.26	-1.80	-5.05	8.59	-0.84	2.67	-4.77
2012	10.33	6.91	-0.08	-0.82	-8.19	7.52	-3.54	5.47	-2.06	-3.22	-9.06	1.08	2.62
2013	-0.58	0.40	2.33	15.73	7.40	-2.95	-7.35	6.21	4.41	5.45	8.15	-2.69	39.59
2014	1.81	5.80	8.50	-2.48	3.07	2.24	3.09	6.64	2.80	2.28	1.42	-4.46	28.42
2015	-13.60	6.98	-7.34	19.45	-3.06	-6.53	5.07	-6.42	5.85	18.01	2.78	0.47	21.89
2016	0.54	-6.33	5.04	-10.26	5.46	-3.17	10.79	2.19	0.02	4.34	1.44	4.97	16.52
2017	3.32	T 1.24	1.41	4.44	1.19	-1.67	T 6.64	3.57	0.75	11.47	1.70	1.52	39.75
2018	10.54	-0.06	-1.70	T 5.65	4.49	-2.16	6.07	6.09	2.38	-7.62	T 5.15	-9.38	20.21
2019	T 3.27	9.47	4.80	9.73	-2.93	T 11.78	0.44	T 0.19	2.19	T 4.59	5.69	5.45	58.26
2020	5.98	-6.84	-8.73	T 17.82	5.27	11.31	0.15	4.40	-7.45	T -4.70	6.08	2.87	39.94
2021	6.56	-2.81	-0.49	T 4.06	-0.64	T 9.50	4.90	6.19	-6.60	T 14.71	0.55	T 1.89	55.79
2022	-7.10	-3.03	T 4.53	-10.31	-4.21	-5.72	T 8.15	-5.75	-10.56	-3.58	T 12.14	-5.84	-27.69
2023	T 3.44	0.85	17.07	6.97	7.47	2.39	-0.61	-2.55	T -3.93	T 5.07	9.49	0.41	60.41
2024	T 7.20	2.44	1.26	-8.30	T 5.11	8.08	-8.40	0.01	T 5.09	-3.41	T 3.19	-2.20	13.65
2025	T -0.84	-3.39	-3.37	T 3.42	8.22	7.67	8.42	-3.32	T 2.54	-0.37	-4.84	-0.64	15.54
2026	-9.02	-7.23	-7.12	T 10.40	8.64	-19.00	T 20.93	4.03	2.37	3.31			12.01

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

MSFT - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for MSFT:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
30.07.26	$451.10	30d	+9.16%	+10.04%	+9.16%	+10.2%
15.04.26	$411.22	20d	+4.38%	+0.35%	+0.35%	+0.35%
30.09.25	$517.95	12d	-0.75%	-0.75%	-0.75%	-0.75%
29.04.25	$394.04	73d	+14.01%	+16.91%	+19.51%	+32.01%
28.01.25	$447.20	4d	-1.09%	-1.09%	-1.09%	-1.09%
14.11.24	$426.89	4d	+0%	+0%	+0%	+0%
16.09.24	$431.34	9d	-0.77%	-2.47%	-2.47%	+0%
14.05.24	$416.56	20d	+3.3%	-0.34%	-0.34%	-0.34%
10.01.24	$382.77	48d	+5.17%	+8.17%	+6.22%	+6.22%
12.10.23	$331.16	42d	+2.87%	+9.68%	+14.1%	+13.05%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for MSFT: 3.22%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
15-20%	2	+17.06%	+19.77%	+19.34%	+19.34%	Hold
10-15%	7	+12.92%	+16.03%	+16.31%	+18.46%	Hold
7-10%	9	+8.57%	+8.02%	+6.24%	+6.33%	Close
5-7%	8	+5.77%	+10.13%	+8.91%	+10.14%	Hold
3-5%	17	+3.89%	+4.45%	+4.6%	+5.08%	Hold
1-3%	16	+1.9%	+2.74%	+3.78%	+4.08%	Hold
0-1%	7	+0.61%	+1.49%	+4.78%	+2.82%	Close
-1-0%	15	-0.5%	+1.02%	+0.91%	+1.95%	Neg
-3-1%	21	-1.7%	-0.86%	-0.34%	+0.57%	Neg
-5-3%	13	-3.71%	-3.41%	-2.3%	+2%	Neg
-7-5%	5	-6.03%	-6.82%	-5.65%	-3.74%	Neg
-10-7%	1	-7.07%	-5.63%	-5.63%	-5.63%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 17

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

12%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

66% / 34%

More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.

GEX (Mio.)

201,147,442.8

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$475.00 · 10.3%

The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.

Max Pain

$520.00 · 1.8%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$529.76

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

MSFT GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 2 Long Call Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 12% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (66% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages

✓ Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid

✓ Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels

✓ Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility

Risks

✕ Time decay (theta) works against the position every day

✕ Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid

✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration

▶ FAQ: Long Call

What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Setup 2 of 2 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 12% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$3.75 T
PE Ratio (TTM)	28.17
Forward PE	21.42
PEG Ratio	1.61
EV/EBITDA	19.59
Price/Sales	11.31
Price/Book	8.49
Beta	1.11

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	67.94%
Operating Margin	45.11%
Net Margin	40.31%
ROE	34.04%
ROA	14.09%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$3.64
Forward Yield	73.00%
Payout Ratio	19.83%
Dividend Date	2026-09-09

Analyst Consensus (52 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$555
High Target	$870
Low Target	$400

About Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. Its products include operating systems, server applications, business solution applications, software development tools, desktop and server management tools, and video games; and devices, such as PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other intelligent devices, and related accessories. The company's Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 Commercial, Enterprise Mobility + Security, Power BI, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and Windows Commercial on-premises and Office licensed on-premises. This segment also provides Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, including talent solutions, marketing solutions, subscriptions, and sales solutions; Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based applications; and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment offers server products and cloud services; cloud and AI consumption-based services, GitHub cloud services, health and life sciences cloud services, as well as virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; SQL Server, Windows Server, Visual Studio, System Center, and related client access licenses; and enterprise support services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner network, and learning experience. The company's More Personal Computing segment provides Windows OEM licensing and devices comprising Surface and PC accessories; XBOX hardware, and XBOX first- and third-party content and services; XBOX Game Pass and other subscriptions; XBOX Cloud Gaming, advertising, and other cloud services; and search advertising consisting of Bing, Copilot, Microsoft News, Microsoft Edge, and third-party affiliates. It sells its products through partners and retail networks. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.

ETF Holdings

Microsoft Corporation is included in 8 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
XLK	10.12%
IGV	9.16%
QQQ	5.60%
DIA	4.97%
SPY	4.92%
CHAT	4.39%
DRIV	2.71%
ARTY	2.17%

Frequently Asked Questions – Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.