ARM is pulling back toward the 21-day EMA at $282.98 within an intact uptrend. The primary swing trend remains positive and momentum, while fading slightly, has not reversed. This kind of measured pullback to a rising EMA is a textbook continuation setup.
What to watch
The EMA21 at $282.98 is the level to watch. A bounce with renewed momentum from this zone would be a trendline entry with a clear invalidation level directly below the EMA.
ARM is pulling back toward the 21-day EMA at $282.98 within an intact uptrend. The primary swing trend remains positive and momentum, while fading slightly, has not reversed. This kind of measured pullback to a rising EMA is a textbook continuation setup.
What to watch
The EMA21 at $282.98 is the level to watch. A bounce with renewed momentum from this zone would be a trendline entry with a clear invalidation level directly below the EMA.
Indicator
Signal
Detail
Swing Trend
▲ Long
Primary directional bias
Momentum
▲ Up · 21d
Strength: 0.57 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX)
14.3 – Weak
ADX38: 16.5
Volatility (HV30)
83.4% – Calm
HV90: 88.2% | HV180: 87.4%
Vola Compression
None
Normal range
MA Structure
Golden Cross ✓
Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance
~0 ATR – Near line
EMA21: $282.98
GD200 Extension
5.9 ATR – Normal
GD20: 0.4 | GD50: 1.7 | GD100: -0.1
⚠️ Momentum Fading
Upward momentum has been running 21 days but strength is declining (0.57). The trend is intact but losing energy.
T
A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.
ARM - Trendchange Chart
Trendchange Signal History
The last 8 Trendchange signals for ARM:
Date
Entry Price
Days Held
+10d
+20d
+30d
+60d
18.09.26
$275.61
6d
+6.07%
+6.81%
+0%
+0%
10.02.26
$125.95
19d
+1.74%
-1.46%
-1.46%
-1.46%
16.09.25
$153.85
4d
-6.21%
-6.21%
-6.21%
-6.21%
28.04.25
$112.08
43d
+3.32%
+13.47%
+23.67%
+32.54%
10.01.25
$140.49
24d
+15.68%
+15.67%
+14.11%
+14.11%
13.12.24
$151.91
2d
-10.1%
-10.1%
+0%
+0%
16.09.24
$138.40
32d
+5.19%
+9.44%
+2.9%
+2.9%
17.05.24
$110.35
44d
+9.22%
+43.08%
+43.93%
+46.53%
Signal Statistics - Historical Edge
Calculated edge for ARM: 30.58%
Range
N
10d
20d
30d
60d
Signal
15-20%
1
+15.68%
+15.67%
+14.11%
+14.11%
Hold
7-10%
1
+9.22%
+43.08%
+43.93%
+46.53%
Hold
5-7%
2
+5.63%
+8.12%
+1.45%
+1.45%
Close
3-5%
1
+3.32%
+13.47%
+23.67%
+32.54%
Hold
1-3%
1
+1.74%
-1.46%
-1.46%
-1.46%
Close
-7-5%
1
-6.21%
-6.21%
-6.21%
-6.21%
Neg
<-10%
1
-10.1%
-10.1%
+0%
+0%
Neg
Exit Rules:
Stoploss: -10% |
Close if below 3% after 10 days
Signal data as of October 7, 2026
MEDIUM ALERT
● Neutral
Strength: 6
Options Metrics
IV-Rank (52w)
8%
Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).
Call / Put Flow
20%
/ 80%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into puts. This indicates net bearish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
3,905,655.4
Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.
GEX Flip Strike
$230.00 · 21.9%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$300.00 · 1.9%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$294.37
Last traded price at signal calculation time
Gamma Exposure Timeline
Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.
Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.
Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our
options strategy guides →
Strategy Setups – You Decide
Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions.
Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.
IV-Rank at 8% – options are historically cheap. Bearish flow (20% calls) supports buying downside premium at below-average cost.
Advantages
✓Profits from significant downside moves with limited maximum risk
✓Cheap entry when IV-Rank is historically low
✓Can be used as portfolio protection against existing long positions
Risks
✕Time decay erodes value daily – timing the entry matters
✕Needs a substantial move below the strike to be profitable
✕Full premium is lost if the stock stays above the strike
▶ FAQ: Long Put
What is a Long Put?
A Long Put gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying at the strike price before expiration. It is a bearish strategy with maximum loss limited to the premium paid. It is often used as a hedge against existing long positions.
When is buying puts most cost-effective?
Buying puts when IV-Rank is low means you are purchasing protection at below-average cost. Many traders fail to hedge when volatility is cheap and scramble to buy expensive puts when fear spikes. Buying puts proactively when IV is historically low is a disciplined risk management approach.
IV-Rank at 8% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.
Advantages
✓Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side
✓Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle
✓An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously
Risks
✕Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid
✕Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches
✕If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless
▶ FAQ: Long Straddle
What is a Long Straddle?
A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.
Why buy a straddle when IV is low?
Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.
All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. The company provides a product portfolio, including CPU IP, GPU and neural processing unit (NPU) accelerators, system IP such as interconnects, compute platform products including pre-integrated CSSs, and development tools and software. The company serves semiconductor companies, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud service providers (CSPs), and organizations developing chips for end markets such as smartphones, consumer electronics, industrial IoT, embedded systems, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and robotics. It provides its products and services in the United States, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Cambridge, United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.
ETF Holdings
Arm Holdings plc is included in 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.
Frequently Asked Questions – Arm Holdings plc (ARM)
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) is a publicly traded company in the Technology sector, specifically in Semiconductors, with a market capitalization of $255.26B. Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. The company provides a product portfolio,...
ARM currently trades at a trailing P/E of 243.89x and a forward P/E of 78.38x. The stock has a beta of 3.89, meaning it moves roughly more than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.
ARM reports a gross margin of 97.54%, an operating margin of 7.60%, a net profit margin of 20.25%. Return on equity stands at 13.35% and return on assets at 5.42%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.
Based on a consensus of 40 analysts, the median price target is $278.60, the most optimistic target is $500.00, the most conservative target is $125.00. At the current price of $294.37, the median target implies 5.4% downside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.
ARM is held by 2 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in CHAT (2.32%), QQQ (0.11%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence ARM's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.
As of the most recent session, ARM closed at $294.37. The swing trend is positive with ADX at 14.3 (weak trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 21 days. A Golden Cross is in place. 30-day historical volatility is at 83.4%.
The most recent Trendchange signal for ARM fired on 18.09.26 at $275.61. The position has been held for 6 trading days. 10-day return from entry: +6.07%. 20-day return: +6.81%. The historical edge of the signal system for ARM is +30.58% across 8 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the 15-20% range, averaging 15.7% at 10 days and 14.1% at 60 days.
Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only.
This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
See our full Disclaimer.
