HD Signal Follow-Up – 10 Days Review: -1.49% Performance
Executive Summary
On August 06, 2026, a trendchange signal triggered on HD at $349.52, with an expected edge of 12.50%. After 13 calendar days and approximately 10 trading days, the position now sits at $344.30, representing a -1.49% loss. The exit rule designed into this signal has been triggered. The data defined the outcome, and the rule executed as intended.
HD Price Chart – August 20, 2026
The exit rule specifies: close the position when performance drops to or below 1% after 10 trading days. At -1.49% after approximately 10 days, this threshold has been breached. The recommended action is to close this position and document the outcome.
Signal Recap
The original trendchange signal on HD carried a 12.50% edge based on historical backtesting across multiple holding periods. This signal looked for specific technical alignment to identify potential momentum entries in this equity.
Here’s the complete signal table showing historical performance distribution across price ranges:
| Range | N | 10d | 20d | 30d | 60d | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15% | 1 | 10.99% | 15.1% | 22.7% | 43.2% | Hold |
| 7-10% | 1 | 9.07% | 15.2% | 14.9% | 20.9% | Hold |
| 5-7% | 2 | 5.95% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% | Close |
| 3-5% | 5 | 4.23% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 12.9% | Hold |
| 1-3% | 7 | 2.13% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 10.2% | Hold |
| 0-1% | 3 | 0.58% | 0.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | Close |
| -1-0% | 5 | -0.28% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 8.7% | Neg |
| -3-1% | 4 | -1.85% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 4.6% | Neg |
| -5-3% | 1 | -3.89% | 0.1% | 9.5% | -7.4% | Neg |
| -7-5% | 2 | -5.30% | -2.1% | -1.4% | 9.1% | Neg |
The signal table shows one observation from the -3-1% range (N=4) with an average 10-day outcome of -1.85%. This is the performance cohort most relevant to the current position.
Position Details
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry Date | August 06, 2026 |
| Entry Price | $349.52 |
| Review Date | August 19, 2026 |
| Current Price | $344.30 |
| Trading Days Elapsed | ~10 |
| Performance | -1.49% |
| Current Range (10d) | -3-1% |
| Exit Threshold | <= 1% after 10 days |
| Max Stoploss | -10% |
| Status | Exit rule triggered |
Historical Context
The current performance of -1.49% places this position in the -3-1% range on the signal table. Four historical instances fell into this bucket, averaging -1.85% at the 10-day mark. The position tracks this historical group almost exactly.
What happened next in those four cases? The -3-1% range showed concerning behavior on the 20-day and 30-day marks, with average returns of -0.2% for both periods. One instance eventually recovered to 4.6% by day 60. But two out of the four cases remained underwater. This is not a setup known for reversals.
The exit rule was built precisely for this outcome. When a trendchange signal fails to produce positive performance within 10 days, holding becomes a game of noise and mean reversion without statistical support. The signal edge expected 12.50% over the longer term. A -1.49% open loss at 10 days signals the trade did not work.
Why Exit Now
The original system rules are explicit. Close when performance is 1% or below after 10 trading days. At -1.49%, this threshold is breached. The rule protected capital that could be redeployed to setups with better probability structures.
Letting this position run into the -0.2% historical average at day 20 would not be following the signal; it would be ignoring it. The data showed us what to expect. The signal performed outside that expectation. Exit rules exist to prevent hope from replacing logic.
Key Takeaways
- The exit rule matched the signal design. No surprises. No second-guessing required.
- Position performance of -1.49% sits squarely within a historical cohort known for continued weakness through day 30.
- Capital allocation favors closing and moving to the next eligible signal over holding a trade that has signaled failure.
Final Notes
Not every signal works. This one didn’t. The system did. The rules protected the downside and defined the exit. A -1.49% loss in a 13-calendar-day window is clean execution of a predetermined plan, not a failure of discipline.
The outcome is recorded. The position is closed. The next signal is waiting.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an invitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss. See stockbotty.com/disclaimer for full terms.
This article documents the author’s personal trade in HD. The author held this position directly and has closed it in accordance with the exit rule detailed above. This article is not a trading recommendation or endorsement of any strategy.
For more analysis visit stockbotty.com | Disclaimer: stockbotty.com/disclaimer
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