EWJ Signal Review: -2.70% After 10 Days, Exit Triggered

EWJ Signal Follow-Up – 10 Days Review: -2.70% Performance

Executive Summary

On August 07, 2026, a trendchange signal triggered on EWJ (iShares MSCI Japan ETF) at $96.90 with an edge of 4.91%. After 10 trading days, the position has moved to -2.70%, closing at $94.28 on August 20, 2026. The exit threshold of 0% has been triggered. The position meets the defined exit rule and should be closed.

EWJ Price Chart – August 21, 2026

This review assesses whether the original signal thesis still holds, how the current performance aligns with historical expectations, and confirms the exit decision based on the data defined in the signal table.

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Historical Context: What the Data Predicted

EWJ trades in a 4.91% edge band. Historical backtesting across multiple instances shows that when this signal fires, positions in the -3-1% range after 10 days have produced specific outcomes. Understanding where we sit in the historical distribution matters more than raw price movement.

Among 11 historical cases that landed in the -3-1% performance range at the 10-day mark, the average 20-day outcome was -0.2%, the 30-day outcome was 0.2%, and the 60-day outcome was 3.6%. That is: positions near current levels have historically recovered slightly by day 30, then gained 3.6% by day 60. However, the wide variance and thin positive edge in that range warrant careful observation of the next few days.

What matters now is the exit rule. The original exit instruction was clear: close if performance is less than or equal to 0% after 10 days. That threshold has been met.

Signal Recap: The Original Setup

On August 07, the signal table for EWJ showed a 4.91% edge. The position entered at $96.90 with a maximum stoploss of 10% and an exit rule triggered at 0% or below after 10 trading days.

Range	N	10d Avg	20d Avg	30d Avg	60d Avg	Signal
5-7%	4	6.07%	5.2%	8.0%	11.6%	Hold
3-5%	5	3.99%	2.8%	4.5%	4.2%	Close
1-3%	9	1.69%	0.5%	1.5%	2.5%	Close
0-1%	6	0.45%	0.9%	3.8%	5.6%	Hold
-1-0%	9	-0.62%	-0.2%	1.1%	-1.1%	Neg
-3-1%	11	-2.03%	-0.2%	0.2%	3.6%	Neg
-5-3%	3	-3.79%	-3.1%	-0.7%	-3.5%	Neg

10-Day Performance: Where We Stand

Metric	Value
Entry Date	August 07, 2026
Entry Price	$96.90
Review Date	August 20, 2026
Current Price	$94.28
Trading Days Elapsed	~10 days
Performance	-2.70%
Current Range	-3-1%
Exit Threshold	Performance <= 0%
Maximum Stoploss	-10%
Exit Status	Triggered

Exit Decision

CLOSE – Exit threshold reached

The exit rule defined at signal inception has been met. Performance has moved below 0%, triggering the automatic close instruction. At -2.70%, the position sits squarely within the -3-1% range, which carries a “Neg” signal label. The historical average for this range at 10 days is -2.03%, placing the current trade in line with past outcomes.

Not every signal plays out in the trader’s favor. The data specified the exit threshold before entry. At -2.70% performance after 10 trading days, the threshold has crossed. The position should be exited at the current market price, locking in the -2.70% loss. Waiting for a reversal within this range is a discretionary override of the exit rule, which compromises the edge. The historical data showed that positions landing in the -3-1% band at day 10 averaged only -0.2% by day 20. That is not a recovery signal; it is statistical noise. The stoploss of -10% has not been breached, so the downside has been contained.

Key Takeaways

The exit rule executed as intended. Signal rules exist to separate discipline from emotion. The data defined the boundary; the position met it.
A -2.70% loss on a 4.91% edge is within the historical loss band. The setup was sound; the outcome was negative. That gap is the nature of probabilistic trading.
Japanese equities (EWJ) remain volatile relative to developed market baselines. Future signals on this symbol should account for 10-day variance of this magnitude in the negative range.

Conclusion

The EWJ signal triggered on August 07 at $96.90 with a 4.91% edge and an explicit exit rule at 0% performance after 10 days. On August 20, the position reached -2.70%, crossing that threshold. The position is in the -3-1% historical range, which carries no recovery signal. The stoploss of -10% remains unbreached, but the exit rule has done its job: it protected capital by removing the position before worse outcomes were possible.

Close the position at market. The trade journal is closed.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It documents the author’s personal trade journal entry and exit analysis for reference. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trades carry risk, including total loss of capital. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Author Disclosure

This article discusses the author’s personal trade in EWJ (iShares MSCI Japan ETF). The author held this position directly during the period described. This trade documentation is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The exit decision is based on the author’s pre-defined exit rules and historical signal analysis. Readers are responsible for their own investment decisions and risk management.

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