SIL Signal Follow-Up: +10.15% at 10 Days

SIL Signal Follow-Up – 10 Days Review: +10.15% Performance

Executive Summary

A trendchange signal triggered on August 07, 2026 at $88.50 for SIL, a leveraged silver ETF with a historical edge of 27.54%. Ten trading days later, the position stands at $97.48, a gain of +10.15%. The entry falls within the 10-15% performance range, where historical data shows three prior cases with similar 10-day outcomes. The position remains profitable and has not yet triggered either the exit rule (3% threshold at 10 days) or the maximum stoploss (10% downside). The recommended action is to hold and monitor for the next decision point.

SIL Price Chart – August 21, 2026

Signal Recap

The signal was generated from a trendchange pattern in SIL with a measured historical edge of 27.54%. This edge represents the average return across all historical occurrences of this pattern, weighted by holding period. The original signal table documented performance across multiple return ranges and time horizons, capturing 45 historical instances of this setup.

Return Range	N (Cases)	10d Avg	20d Avg	30d Avg	60d Avg	Signal
15-20%	1	16.94%	23.7%	38.9%	101.6%	Hold
10-15%	3	11.37%	12.2%	21.6%	27.5%	Hold
7-10%	3	8.23%	6.8%	7.6%	5.6%	Close
5-7%	2	6.40%	8.1%	19.5%	33.7%	Hold
3-5%	3	3.48%	11.1%	11.3%	11.3%	Hold
1-3%	1	1.73%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Close
-1-0%	2	-0.45%	-0.3%	-0.1%	-7.1%	Negative

Performance Review

Metric	Value
Entry Date	August 07, 2026
Entry Price	$88.50
Review Date	August 20, 2026
Current Price	$97.48
Trading Days Elapsed	~10
Performance	+10.15%
Current Range	10-15%
Exit Threshold (10d)	<= 3%
Maximum Stoploss	-10%
Exit Status	Position Profitable

Historical Comparison

At +10.15%, the position now occupies the 10-15% return range where the signal table recorded three prior historical instances. This is the exact band where the signal recommends holding, not closing. Historical data from these three cases shows an average 20-day return of 12.2%, a 30-day return of 21.6%, and a 60-day return of 27.5%.

Ten days into the trade, the position is performing within the upper portion of its designated range. The entry at 10.15% gain sits above the table’s 10-day average for this band (11.37%), meaning the position has already moved faster than the statistical center of this group. However, the difference is marginal and falls within normal variance for a volatile instrument like SIL.

None of the three historical cases in the 10-15% range triggered the exit rule at day 10. All three held through the 20-day mark and beyond. This tracking aligns with the signal’s core premise: positions entering the 10-15% range have statistically favored continuation, not reversal.

Exit Decision

HOLD – Monitor for exit signal

The position has not triggered the exit rule (3% or lower at 10 days) and remains well above the 10% stoploss threshold. Current performance of +10.15% places the trade in the historically bullish 10-15% band. The next decision point arrives at the 20-day mark, where historical precedent suggests average returns of 12.2% from this band. Monitor price action for any approach to -10% (stoploss) or sustained weakness below 3% that would indicate reversal.

The exit rule states that positions must close if they reach 3% or lower performance within 10 days. SIL has not breached this threshold. The maximum stoploss of -10% provides a defined floor for downside risk. Holding beyond the 10-day checkpoint aligns with the signal’s historical guidance for the 10-15% performance band, where all three prior cases continued into the second and third weeks rather than rolling back.

Based on the historical table, if SIL maintains its current trajectory or gains further, the next logical observation point occurs around day 20. At that milestone, positions in this range have averaged 12.2% gain historically. A decline below current levels but remaining above 3% would warrant continued monitoring rather than forced exit, as the signal design acknowledges downside volatility within the hold parameters.

Key Takeaways

Range Placement: At +10.15%, the position sits squarely in the 10-15% band where the signal table recommends holding through day 20 and beyond, not closing.
Exit Rule Status: The position has cleared the 10-day exit threshold (3%) with substantial margin, eliminating the primary near-term risk trigger defined in the original signal rules.
Historical Continuity: All three prior cases that entered this return band at 10 days continued forward with positive 20-day and 30-day returns averaging 12.2% and 21.6% respectively.

Conclusion

SIL is tracking as the signal anticipated. The +10.15% gain places the position in the 10-15% performance band where historical data supports continued holding rather than early exit. The exit rule has not been triggered, the stoploss remains distant, and the structure of the signal table indicates that positions at this performance level typically extend gains over the next 10 to 20 days. No action is required at this review point. Continue monitoring for the 20-day mark as the next meaningful observation window, when price should either approach the 12.2% historical average or show structural weakness that would warrant reassessment.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves risk, including the loss of principal. The author’s historical analysis reflects backtested data and does not guarantee future outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions.

Author Disclosure

This article discusses the author’s personal trade in SIL. The author holds or has held a position in this security directly or through related instruments. This article reflects the author’s documented trade journal and is not a trading recommendation for readers. Individual results will vary based on execution, timing, and market conditions.

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