How is UNP valued relative to the market?

UNP currently trades at a trailing P/E of 23.10x and a forward P/E of 20.14x. The stock has a beta of 0.97, meaning it moves roughly less than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is UNP?

UNP reports a gross margin of 56.29%, an operating margin of 40.98%, a net profit margin of 28.85%. Return on equity stands at 39.70% and return on assets at 9.27%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does UNP pay a dividend?

UNP pays an annual dividend of $5.68, representing a forward yield of 200.00%. The payout ratio is 44.70%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-09-29. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for UNP?

Based on a consensus of 24 analysts, the median price target is $337.00, the most optimistic target is $375.00, the most conservative target is $245.00. At the current price of $274.68, the median target implies 22.7% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

UNP is held by 3 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in XLI (2.82%), IFRA (0.76%), SPY (0.25%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence UNP's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for UNP?

As of the most recent session, UNP closed at $274.68. The swing trend is negative with ADX at 15.5 (weak trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 1 days. A Golden Cross is in place. 30-day historical volatility is at 18.8%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for UNP and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for UNP fired on 01.07.26 at $277.73. The position has been held for 43 trading days. 10-day return from entry: +3.83%. 20-day return: +5.21%. The historical edge of the signal system for UNP is +3.8% across 132 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the 10-15% range, averaging 12.6% at 10 days and 12.4% at 60 days.

UNP – Union Pacific Corporation

Industrials | Railroads | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$274.68

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▼ Short

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control

+3.8%

Signal Edge

Slim positive edge across 1 signals – treat with caution

15.5

Trend Strength (ADX)

Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable

Options Signals

18%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

44% / 56%

Call / Put Flow

Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced

Last Trendchange Signal

01.07.26

Date

Signal entry date

$277.73

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

43d

Days Held

Trading days since signal

+3.83%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

+5.21%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

+5.76%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

+4.64%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

UNP shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Options Signal Highlight

LOW Strength 2 Long Straddle 📖 View full options analysis →

UNP Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $274.68 · ATR14: $1.73

Mixed Signals – Caution Composite Score: +2 / 7

UNP shows mixed signals. Some trend indicators are positive, others are neutral or deteriorating. The picture is not clear enough to lean heavily in either direction with conviction.

What to watch

This is not an environment that rewards aggressive positioning. Reduced exposure or cash is a valid stance.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▼ Short	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▲ Up · 1d	Strength: 0.03 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX)	15.5 – Weak	ADX38: 27.0
Volatility (HV30)	18.8% – Calm	HV90: 22.0% \| HV180: 23.5%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance	-0.89 ATR ↑	EMA21: $276.93
GD200 Extension	2.0 ATR – Normal	GD20: -0.6 \| GD50: -2.9 \| GD100: -1.6

🚀 Momentum Accelerating

Upward momentum active for 1 days and still gaining strength (current: 0.03). Trend is building, not fading.

⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 15.5 (Weak)

Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 27.0. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 18.8% | HV90: 22.0% | HV180: 23.5%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $289.10 above GD200 $265.37 by 8.94%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).

📈 EMA21 – Trend Accelerating

Price is pulling away from the EMA21 ($276.93) with -0.89 ATR distance and growing.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $277.44 (-0.6 ATR) | GD50: $289.10 (-2.9 ATR) | GD100: $282.66 (-1.6 ATR) | GD200: $265.37 (2.0 ATR). ATR14: $1.73.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-7.48	8.12	8.27	2.73	-7.63	-1.14	7.42	-4.35	7.10	8.21	1.36	1.36	41.70
2011	1.00	-0.02	6.11	5.29	1.30	3.51	-4.01	-9.02	-10.64	24.73	6.80	2.92	13.08
2012	5.84	-4.00	-3.63	2.59	-2.97	10.36	3.42	-0.12	-2.91	3.80	-2.53	3.53	16.41
2013	2.34	2.35	4.28	5.61	6.14	-1.03	2.04	-5.67	1.04	-3.37	6.07	2.73	30.78
2014	4.27	5.03	4.54	1.06	5.55	0.17	-1.79	7.52	2.08	10.07	1.31	3.93	42.58
2015	-1.18	1.05	-10.30	-1.03	-6.31	-6.44	1.49	-11.12	6.03	-1.16	-5.78	-7.35	-34.07
2016	-8.83	7.89	-0.71	10.53	-4.46	3.73	6.54	2.65	2.35	-9.42	15.29	0.28	31.29
2017	3.96	0.22	-3.81	6.12	-1.16	-1.52	-6.43	3.26	9.96	0.46	8.12	7.61	30.80
2018	-1.68	-1.61	4.69	0.40	7.56	-3.57	4.77	1.52	7.64	-11.00	4.48	-12.03	1.80
2019	15.45	5.03	-0.14	3.58	-4.89	1.67	T 4.93	-7.46	1.66	T 6.10	2.01	4.50	31.22
2020	-1.56	-11.36	-12.04	T 17.07	8.44	-0.25	T 3.88	11.84	0.55	-8.77	T 13.86	2.88	14.24
2021	-2.73	3.71	T 5.37	0.85	0.44	T -2.27	T -2.14	T -0.31	-9.64	T 19.66	-1.60	8.01	24.10
2022	-1.30	T -0.31	12.70	-9.87	-5.62	-3.63	T 5.59	-1.13	-13.82	-1.56	T 10.47	-4.10	-16.43
2023	T -1.63	-0.31	T -3.24	T -1.92	-3.08	T 4.57	12.56	-4.72	-7.87	2.45	T 8.53	6.16	18.33
2024	0.21	1.77	-2.79	-2.52	T -0.91	-0.90	T 9.73	4.75	-3.42	-5.49	T 5.14	-5.29	-6.32
2025	T 8.15	1.51	-3.89	-9.07	T 3.54	5.11	-5.77	1.90	T 6.48	-6.12	T 5.95	-0.02	0.96
2026	1.38	T 12.65	-9.12	T 10.84	-1.38	3.23	T 5.18	3.24	-6.36	0.83			18.44

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

UNP - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for UNP:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
01.07.26	$277.73	43d	+3.83%	+5.21%	+5.76%	+4.64%
23.04.26	$271.26	9d	-1.12%	-2.01%	-1.57%	-1.57%
03.02.26	$241.49	40d	+8.82%	+10.08%	+7.75%	+7.75%
28.11.25	$231.83	22d	+1.85%	+1.39%	+1.39%	+1.39%
23.09.25	$227.98	32d	+4.14%	-0.93%	-0.93%	-0.93%
16.05.25	$231.42	4d	-3.85%	-3.85%	-3.85%	-3.85%
23.01.25	$248.05	12d	-1.44%	-0.16%	-1.01%	-1.01%
25.11.24	$249.32	3d	-5.74%	-5.74%	-5.74%	+0%
11.11.24	$241.95	1d	-0.64%	+0%	+0%	+0%
16.07.24	$243.06	14d	-0.37%	-1.86%	-1.86%	-1.86%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for UNP: 3.8%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
10-15%	1	+12.59%	+12.2%	+14.29%	+12.36%	Hold
7-10%	5	+7.67%	+10.89%	+12.21%	+12.22%	Hold
5-7%	6	+5.77%	+7.37%	+6.78%	+5.87%	Close
3-5%	18	+3.97%	+3.03%	+3.58%	+3.61%	Close
1-3%	24	+2.08%	+3.4%	+4.59%	+6.24%	Hold
0-1%	8	+0.42%	+2.33%	+2.22%	+2.05%	Close
-1-0%	16	-0.55%	+1.69%	+0.99%	+1.16%	Neg
-3-1%	27	-1.96%	-2.34%	-2.19%	-1.6%	Neg
-5-3%	15	-4.02%	-3.25%	-2.96%	-2.16%	Neg
-7-5%	8	-5.86%	-5.18%	-4.67%	-1.26%	Neg
-10-7%	3	-7.83%	-2.6%	-2.6%	-2.6%	Neg
<-10%	1	-11.69%	-11.69%	-11.69%	+0%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

LOW ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 2

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

18%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

44% / 56%

Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.

GEX (Mio.)

215,029.9

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

Max Pain

$270.00 · 1.7%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$274.68

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

UNP GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 1 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 18% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$169.36 B
PE Ratio (TTM)	23.10
Forward PE	20.14
PEG Ratio	2.82
EV/EBITDA	15.40
Price/Sales	6.67
Price/Book	8.72
Beta	0.97

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	56.29%
Operating Margin	40.98%
Net Margin	28.85%
ROE	39.70%
ROA	9.27%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$5.68
Forward Yield	200.00%
Payout Ratio	44.70%
Dividend Date	2026-09-29

Analyst Consensus (24 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$337
High Target	$375
Low Target	$245

About Union Pacific Corporation

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. It offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, and ethanol and renewable biofuel producers; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, petroleum, liquid petroleum gases, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

ETF Holdings

Union Pacific Corporation is included in 3 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
XLI	2.82%
IFRA	0.76%
SPY	0.25%

Frequently Asked Questions – Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.