How is MSTR valued relative to the market?

MSTR currently trades at a forward P/E of 2.77x. The stock has a beta of 3.60, meaning it moves roughly more than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is MSTR?

MSTR reports a gross margin of 67.60%, an operating margin of -6,808.11%, a net profit margin of 0.00%. Return on equity stands at -63.56% and return on assets at -38.73%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

What is the analyst price target for MSTR?

Based on a consensus of 15 analysts, the median price target is $200.00, the most optimistic target is $435.00, the most conservative target is $125.00. At the current price of $153.37, the median target implies 30.4% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

Which ETFs hold MSTR?

MSTR is held by 3 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in BLOK (1.61%), IGV (1.59%), QQQ (0.24%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence MSTR's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for MSTR?

As of the most recent session, MSTR closed at $153.37. The swing trend is positive with ADX at 33.0 (strong trend strength). Momentum is bullish and has been running for 14 days. No Golden Cross is currently active. 30-day historical volatility is at 95.6%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for MSTR and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for MSTR fired on 16.04.26 at $148.94. The position has been held for 28 trading days. 10-day return from entry: +6.21%. 20-day return: +19.53%. The historical edge of the signal system for MSTR is +33.96% across 93 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the >20% range, averaging 25.9% at 10 days and 50.7% at 60 days.

MSTR – Strategy Inc

Technology | Software - Application | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$153.37

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▲ Long

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms uptrend – bulls in control

+33.96%

Signal Edge

Strong positive edge across 4 signals – signal has a clear statistical advantage

33.0

Trend Strength (ADX)

Strong trend – directional signals reliable

Options Signals

13%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

51% / 49%

Call / Put Flow

Neutral flow – call and put activity roughly balanced

Last Trendchange Signal

16.04.26

Date

Signal entry date

$148.94

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

28d

Days Held

Trading days since signal

+6.21%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

+19.53%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

+19.12%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

+19.12%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Pullback to EMA21 – Potential Entry Zone Composite Score: +2 / 7

MSTR is pulling back toward the 21-day EMA at $147.37 within an intact uptrend. The primary swing trend remains positive and momentum, while fading slightly, has not reversed. This kind of measured pullback to a rising EMA is a textbook continuation setup.

What to watch

The EMA21 at $147.37 is the level to watch. A bounce with renewed momentum from this zone would be a trendline entry with a clear invalidation level directly below the EMA.

Options Signal Highlight

HIGH Strength 12.5 Long Straddle 📖 View full options analysis →

MSTR Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $153.37 · ATR14: $5.92

Pullback to EMA21 – Potential Entry Zone Composite Score: +2 / 7

What to watch

The EMA21 at $147.37 is the level to watch. A bounce with renewed momentum from this zone would be a trendline entry with a clear invalidation level directly below the EMA.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▲ Long	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▲ Up · 14d	Strength: 0.55 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX)	33.0 – Strong	ADX38: 42.0
Volatility (HV30)	95.6% – Rising	HV90: 87.1% \| HV180: 85.6%
Vola Compression	None	Normal range
MA Structure	Death Cross ✗	Stack: Mostly aligned (2/3)
EMA21 Distance	~0 ATR – Near line	EMA21: $147.37
GD200 Extension	2.2 ATR – Normal	GD20: 0.2 \| GD50: 3.4 \| GD100: 4.3

⚠️ Momentum Fading

Upward momentum has been running 14 days but strength is declining (0.55). The trend is intact but losing energy.

💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 33.0 (Strong)

A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 42.0. Trend-following has clear edge here.

🔺 Volatility Rising

HV30: 95.6% | HV90: 87.1% | HV180: 85.6%. Short-term vol is running above its 90-day average. Wider stops and reduced size may be appropriate.

💀 Death Cross – Long-term Bearish

Death Cross in place. GD50 $127.52 below GD200 $135.97. Long-term structure remains bearish. MA stack: Mostly aligned (2/3).

🎯 EMA21 – Reaction Zone

Price is within 0.5 ATR of the EMA21 at $147.37. Watch for a decisive bounce or break.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $151.22 (0.2 ATR) | GD50: $127.52 (3.4 ATR) | GD100: $122.35 (4.3 ATR) | GD200: $135.97 (2.2 ATR). ATR14: $5.92.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	-2.60	-6.14	-6.17	-10.41	1.31	0.00	11.71	-7.70	8.25	3.19	-4.42	-2.51	-11.12
2011	20.36	7.70	16.96	2.61	3.91	8.68	-4.21	-23.19	-3.63	25.40	5.67	-11.45	22.51
2012	3.41	13.76	0.43	-2.37	-12.98	9.25	-10.59	6.63	6.94	-29.00	-9.14	5.30	-16.08
2013	5.03	-0.49	-1.94	-12.43	2.58	-4.50	8.20	-5.17	13.20	13.91	5.72	-0.96	30.05
2014	1.78	4.62	-10.47	4.39	16.71	0.36	0.49	-0.93	-5.97	25.12	7.72	-5.14	31.50
2015	-0.92	8.06	-5.79	7.62	-3.67	-3.41	19.87	-2.36	0.26	-13.65	-1.59	1.19	9.93
2016	0.82	-7.16	4.23	-1.86	1.30	-6.17	1.45	-3.02	0.06	18.93	-0.51	3.03	15.37
2017	1.77	-2.34	-3.10	1.49	-4.70	3.12	-27.88	-5.36	-0.62	2.48	1.71	-2.74	-33.62
2018	4.48	-7.98	4.12	1.59	-0.92	-2.07	0.46	12.62	-4.81	-7.69	T 3.18	-2.59	-3.11
2019	T -1.32	10.55	1.83	1.63	-5.74	T 9.47	-2.36	T 5.76	3.34	T 4.72	-2.21	-5.00	10.89
2020	T 5.34	-9.57	-13.61	T 11.38	T 1.55	-3.51	T 5.18	16.73	1.21	T 12.15	105.76	19.91	169.23
2021	45.18	18.25	-13.24	T -6.59	-26.05	T 39.07	-3.83	8.86	-17.67	T 16.75	-2.00	-22.82	28.06
2022	-34.09	18.77	T 4.65	-27.86	-27.66	-31.00	T 71.52	-16.00	-3.89	T 19.15	-22.98	-28.84	-74.64
2023	T 73.59	-2.09	T 13.34	10.42	-1.92	T 14.17	15.89	-17.81	-6.60	T 28.50	16.79	19.70	335.60
2024	-26.85	T 103.15	57.92	-34.93	T 48.26	-15.36	T 18.19	-12.41	T 37.84	50.29	68.68	-23.84	322.71
2025	T 11.59	-26.41	T 14.89	T 24.21	-3.29	8.59	T 7.65	-8.79	-5.68	-20.36	-33.06	-11.36	-49.35
2026	-4.74	-7.25	T -9.34	T 34.75	-10.20	-41.96	-0.12	40.14	22.59	-4.44			-2.41

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

MSTR - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for MSTR:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
16.04.26	$148.94	28d	+6.21%	+19.53%	+19.12%	+19.12%
13.03.26	$139.67	9d	-0.39%	-0.39%	-0.39%	+0%
09.07.25	$415.41	20d	+2.65%	-0.12%	-0.12%	-0.12%
17.04.25	$317.20	48d	+20.3%	+25.17%	+25.93%	+25.93%
24.03.25	$335.72	4d	-15.92%	-15.92%	+0%	+0%
17.01.25	$396.50	4d	-15.56%	-15.56%	-15.56%	-15.56%
23.09.24	$149.97	48d	+17.7%	+43.94%	+53.17%	+157.66%
17.07.24	$159.00	12d	+0.88%	-8.93%	-8.93%	-8.93%
20.05.24	$172.72	3d	-5.78%	-7.15%	-7.15%	+0%
09.02.24	$64.63	44d	+6.36%	+120.57%	+135.64%	+149.94%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for MSTR: 33.96%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
>20%	4	+25.92%	+26.45%	+42.4%	+50.66%	Hold
15-20%	2	+17.2%	+31.2%	+39.81%	+92.06%	Hold
10-15%	8	+12.23%	+12.61%	+18.02%	+59.84%	Hold
7-10%	2	+8.6%	+12.31%	+56.62%	+80.78%	Hold
5-7%	9	+5.75%	+18.6%	+22.54%	+21.64%	Hold
3-5%	10	+3.68%	+8.49%	+7.46%	+7.32%	Close
1-3%	8	+1.85%	+5.49%	+6.06%	+6.28%	Hold
0-1%	5	+0.64%	-1.39%	-0.51%	-0.87%	Close
-1-0%	10	-0.55%	-3.25%	-3.11%	-3.07%	Neg
-3-1%	17	-1.85%	-0.02%	+0.24%	+1.05%	Neg
-5-3%	6	-3.75%	-1.61%	-2.12%	-1.25%	Neg
-7-5%	4	-5.77%	-3.91%	+11.6%	+14.6%	Neg
-10-7%	1	-8.32%	-8.32%	-8.32%	-8.32%	Neg
<-10%	7	-16.59%	-17.76%	-15.49%	-15.49%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 12.5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

13%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

51% / 49%

Call and put premium are roughly balanced. No clear directional bias from options flow.

GEX (Mio.)

25,623,397.3

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$113.00 · 26.3%

The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.

Max Pain

$157.50 · 2.7%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$153.37

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

MSTR GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, one setup stands out. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 1 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 13% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$54.40 B
Forward PE	2.77
PEG Ratio	2.85
EV/EBITDA	-1.96
Price/Sales	109.17
Price/Book	1.65
Beta	3.60

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	67.60%
Operating Margin	-6,808.11%
Net Margin	0.00%
ROE	-63.56%
ROA	-38.73%

Analyst Consensus (15 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$200
High Target	$435
Low Target	$125

About Strategy Inc

Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. The company also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making. In addition, the company provides Strategy Mosaic, a universal intelligence layer that offers enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The company was formerly known as MicroStrategy Incorporated and changed its name to Strategy Inc in August 2025. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

ETF Holdings

Strategy Inc is included in 3 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
BLOK	1.61%
IGV	1.59%
QQQ	0.24%

Frequently Asked Questions – Strategy Inc (MSTR)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.