How is MRK valued relative to the market?

MRK currently trades at a trailing P/E of 115.88x and a forward P/E of 15.17x. The stock has a beta of 0.23, meaning it moves roughly less than the broader market on average. Valuation multiples should always be considered alongside earnings growth rate and sector context.

How profitable is MRK?

MRK reports a gross margin of 75.90%, an operating margin of -0.24%, a net profit margin of 4.77%. Return on equity stands at 6.96% and return on assets at 11.87%. These figures provide context for evaluating the quality and sustainability of the company's earnings relative to its peers.

Does MRK pay a dividend?

MRK pays an annual dividend of $3.40, representing a forward yield of 2.36%. The payout ratio is 2.69%, which indicates the share of earnings distributed to shareholders. The most recent dividend date was 2026-10-06. Dividend sustainability should always be evaluated alongside free cash flow trends.

What is the analyst price target for MRK?

Based on a consensus of 26 analysts, the median price target is $152.50, the most optimistic target is $186.00, the most conservative target is $105.00. At the current price of $142.79, the median target implies 6.8% upside. Analyst targets represent 12-month price expectations and should be considered alongside technical signals and momentum data.

MRK is held by 3 ETFs tracked by StockBotty. The largest allocations are in XLV (5.24%), DIA (1.55%), SPY (0.51%). Significant ETF ownership means institutional flows in and out of these funds can influence MRK's price action, particularly around rebalancing dates.

What is the current trend signal for MRK?

As of the most recent session, MRK closed at $142.79. The swing trend is negative with ADX at 5.1 (weak trend strength). Momentum is bearish and has been running for 20 days. A Golden Cross is in place. Volatility has been compressing for 10 consecutive sessions. 30-day historical volatility is at 21.4%.

When was the last Trendchange signal for MRK and what is its historical edge?

The most recent Trendchange signal for MRK fired on 22.05.26 at $122.41. The position has been held for 4 trading days. 10-day return from entry: -1.32%. 20-day return: -6.14%. The historical edge of the signal system for MRK is +4.78% across 121 tracked signals. The best-performing entry bucket historically is the 10-15% range, averaging 11.6% at 10 days and 6.1% at 60 days.

MRK – Merck & Co., Inc.

Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - General | Website

Quick Stats

Trend Signal

$142.79

Last Close

Official EOD price – basis for all calculations

▼ Short

Swing Trend

Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control

+4.78%

Signal Edge

Slim positive edge across 2 signals – treat with caution

5.1

Trend Strength (ADX)

Weak / ranging – trend signals less reliable

Options Signals

16%

IV-Rank (52w)

Options are historically cheap – premium buying favored

95% / 5%

Call / Put Flow

Bullish positioning – call premium dominates options flow

Last Trendchange Signal

22.05.26

Date

Signal entry date

$122.41

Entry Price

Closing price at signal date

Days Held

Trading days since signal

-1.32%

+10d

Return after 10 trading days

-6.14%

+20d

Return after 20 trading days

-6.14%

+30d

Return after 30 trading days

-6.14%

+60d

Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: -2 / 7

MRK has been in a volatility compression for 10 consecutive sessions. Price is coiling and the range is contracting. This kind of structure typically resolves with an expansion in one direction – and the underlying trend bias remains negative, which tilts the probability toward a downside continuation. The key question is not if the move happens, but when and which way.

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Options Signal Highlight

MEDIUM Strength 5 Long Call 📖 View full options analysis →

MRK Price Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 07.10.2026 · Close: $142.79 · ATR14: $2.39

Volatility Compression – Wait for Breakout Composite Score: -2 / 7

What to watch

This is a waiting game. Define the breakout level in advance, set alerts at the range boundaries, and let the market make the first move.

Indicator	Signal	Detail
Swing Trend	▼ Short	Primary directional bias
Momentum	▼ Down · -20d	Strength: -0.45 – Rising
Trend Strength (ADX)	5.1 – Weak	ADX38: 22.7
Volatility (HV30)	21.4% – Calm	HV90: 33.3% \| HV180: 30.0%
Vola Compression	10 days active	Potential breakout building
MA Structure	Golden Cross ✓	Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance	-0.71 ATR ↓	EMA21: $143.75
GD200 Extension	6.5 ATR – Extended	GD20: -0.9 \| GD50: 0.0 \| GD100: 3.3

📉 Downside Momentum Intensifying

Downward momentum active for -20 days and still building (-0.45). Selling pressure is not easing.

⚪ Trend Strength – ADX14: 5.1 (Weak)

Weak or ranging market. ADX38: 22.7. Trend-following signals carry lower reliability.

🔻 Volatility Calm

HV30: 21.4% | HV90: 33.3% | HV180: 30.0%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.

🗜️ Volatility Compression – 10 Days Active

Price has been compressing for 10 sessions. The longer the compression, the more powerful the potential breakout.

⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish

Golden Cross in place. GD50 $142.90 above GD200 $123.49 by 15.72%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.

📉 EMA21 – Gap Narrowing

Price is -0.71 ATR from the EMA21 ($143.75) but the distance is shrinking.

📏 Extended Move

6.5 ATR from the 200-day SMA. The trend may be maturing. Disciplined stop management becomes increasingly important.

📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance

GD20: $145.86 (-0.9 ATR) | GD50: $142.90 (0.0 ATR) | GD100: $132.36 (3.3 ATR) | GD200: $123.49 (6.5 ATR). ATR14: $2.39.

Monthly Performance History

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2010	3.18	-3.68	1.26	-7.12	-4.47	5.45	0.05	0.25	4.42	-0.81	-4.93	3.90	1.61
2011	-7.98	-4.18	2.88	8.70	1.23	-1.56	-4.14	-1.01	0.57	9.28	4.97	6.95	9.57
2012	-0.09	-1.20	2.76	1.87	-4.53	13.52	5.53	-2.78	5.28	0.92	-3.56	-7.00	11.37
2013	4.61	2.16	4.70	6.00	2.20	-3.25	3.97	-2.66	1.75	-7.48	10.18	0.65	25.60
2014	7.02	9.41	1.41	3.88	-2.93	0.63	-3.02	5.84	-0.13	-1.30	2.52	-5.44	18.25
2015	5.41	-3.86	-1.09	4.74	1.72	-5.58	2.36	-8.80	-5.18	10.69	-3.79	-2.37	-4.55
2016	-3.45	-1.08	3.11	2.12	1.73	3.11	1.24	7.04	-0.04	-6.08	3.20	-2.36	15.81
2017	3.06	6.06	-3.35	-1.79	4.39	-1.06	-0.60	-0.09	1.03	-14.66	-0.12	1.56	-3.59
2018	5.41	-9.44	2.32	10.49	2.68	1.00	8.95	4.73	5.13	2.92	8.51	-2.88	40.08
2019	-1.54	6.33	2.55	-5.52	0.63	5.18	-2.08	T 3.32	-2.20	T 3.66	T 2.63	5.21	23.59
2020	-7.17	-12.34	-4.68	T 7.52	3.93	T -2.02	T 2.70	3.32	-1.04	-7.88	T 4.80	1.10	-8.30
2021	T -4.81	-6.13	T 7.45	-3.36	T -0.11	9.35	-1.44	T 0.14	-0.53	T 8.18	-14.72	3.94	2.81
2022	T 6.00	-6.52	T 8.45	6.19	5.00	T 0.84	-3.33	T -3.58	-0.39	T 15.60	10.38	1.72	48.97
2023	-3.36	T -0.69	0.45	T 6.06	-5.10	T 4.71	-6.72	T 3.51	-6.27	0.15	-0.36	T 5.37	8.28
2024	6.66	0.61	T 3.93	-1.35	-2.53	-3.60	-11.55	4.07	T -2.59	-10.82	-0.24	-1.12	-12.15
2025	-0.35	-7.56	T -3.64	-2.20	-7.71	T 3.82	-4.51	T 6.09	-1.81	T -4.60	27.08	3.37	6.14
2026	3.59	9.22	-0.92	T -9.65	T 5.85	11.57	3.85	15.65	-3.04	-0.71			34.14

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

MRK - Trendchange Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for MRK:

Date	Entry Price	Days Held	+10d	+20d	+30d	+60d
22.05.26	$122.41	4d	-1.32%	-6.14%	-6.14%	-6.14%
07.04.26	$119.28	6d	-1.16%	-1.16%	-1.16%	+0%
02.10.25	$89.51	4d	-6.03%	-3.27%	-3.61%	-3.61%
15.08.25	$84.21	15d	-1.19%	+1.12%	+1.12%	+0%
12.06.25	$81.82	4d	-3.65%	-3.32%	-3.32%	-3.32%
06.03.25	$94.00	12d	+0.02%	-1.8%	-1.8%	-1.8%
20.09.24	$117.17	4d	-1.31%	-1.31%	-1.31%	-1.31%
27.03.24	$131.75	8d	-3.8%	-4.22%	-4.22%	-4.22%
05.12.23	$106.23	51d	-0.18%	+8.04%	+11.59%	+19.51%
28.08.23	$108.93	12d	-1.3%	-1.3%	-1.3%	-1.3%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for MRK: 4.78%

Range	N	10d	20d	30d	60d	Signal
10-15%	2	+11.59%	+7.7%	+7.44%	+6.06%	Close
7-10%	6	+8.67%	+9.83%	+10.85%	+11.46%	Hold
5-7%	8	+5.86%	+7.27%	+10.46%	+12.2%	Hold
3-5%	15	+3.71%	+4.27%	+5.07%	+5.79%	Hold
1-3%	23	+1.98%	+3.97%	+4.02%	+4.13%	Hold
0-1%	6	+0.41%	+0.31%	+1.72%	+0.54%	Close
-1-0%	16	-0.46%	-0.03%	+0.49%	+1.06%	Neg
-3-1%	25	-1.83%	-1.05%	-0.6%	-0.01%	Neg
-5-3%	15	-3.89%	-2.82%	-2.74%	-2.28%	Neg
-7-5%	5	-5.64%	-5.35%	-5.42%	-0.72%	Neg

Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 7, 2026

MEDIUM ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 5

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)

16%

Bottom 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically cheap. Conditions favor premium buyers (Long Call, Long Put).

Call / Put Flow

95% / 5%

More than 60% of options premium is flowing into calls. This indicates net bullish positioning by market participants.

GEX (Mio.)

3,127,140.1

Positive GEX: market makers are long gamma. They buy dips and sell rallies, which suppresses volatility and keeps price in a range.

GEX Flip Strike

$137.00 · 4.1%

The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.

Max Pain

$137.00 · 4.1%

Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.

Spot Price

$142.79

Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

MRK GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Setup 1 of 2 Long Call Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 16% – options are historically cheap. Bullish flow (95% calls) supports buying upside premium at below-average cost.

Advantages

✓ Unlimited upside potential with maximum loss capped at the premium paid

✓ Low IV-Rank means you are buying at historically cheap levels

✓ Benefits from both a price increase and a subsequent rise in implied volatility

Risks

✕ Time decay (theta) works against the position every day

✕ Requires a meaningful move to overcome the premium paid

✕ Full premium is lost if the stock stays below the strike at expiration

▶ FAQ: Long Call

What is a Long Call?

A Long Call gives the buyer the right to purchase the underlying at the strike price before expiration. The maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. It expresses a bullish directional view and profits if the underlying rises significantly above the strike price.

Why buy calls when IV-Rank is low?

Low IV-Rank means implied volatility is historically cheap - options are priced below their typical levels. Buying premium when it is cheap reduces the hurdle rate for profitability. If IV subsequently rises, the option gains value from both the price move and the increase in implied volatility.

What is the breakeven on a Long Call?

The breakeven equals the strike price plus the premium paid. For example, a call with a $100 strike bought for $3 breaks even at $103. Above that level, the position profits dollar-for-dollar with the stock. Below the strike at expiration, the full premium is lost.

Setup 2 of 2 Long Straddle Full guide →

Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 16% – buying both sides is cost-effective. A subsequent vol expansion or large move benefits both legs simultaneously.

Advantages

✓ Profits from any large directional move without needing to pick a side

✓ Buying when IV is historically cheap reduces the breakeven hurdle

✓ An unexpected vol expansion benefits both the call and put simultaneously

Risks

✕ Requires a significant move to recover the combined premium paid

✕ Theta decay accelerates as expiration approaches

✕ If the stock stays flat, both legs expire worthless

▶ FAQ: Long Straddle

What is a Long Straddle?

A Long Straddle buys a call and a put at the same strike and expiration. It profits from a large move in either direction. When IV is low, the premium cost is reduced, making the breakeven easier to reach on a directional move.

Why buy a straddle when IV is low?

Low IV means you are buying the options cheaply. If IV subsequently rises - due to an event or a directional move - both legs can gain value simultaneously, giving you a double benefit. The key is entering before the vol expansion.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$357.37 B
PE Ratio (TTM)	115.88
Forward PE	15.17
PEG Ratio	2.63
EV/EBITDA	14.00
Price/Sales	5.37
Price/Book	8.53
Beta	0.23

Profitability

Metric	Value
Gross Margin	75.90%
Operating Margin	-0.24%
Net Margin	4.77%
ROE	6.96%
ROA	11.87%

Dividends

Metric	Value
Annual Dividend	$3.4
Forward Yield	236.00%
Payout Ratio	268.80%
Dividend Date	2026-10-06

Analyst Consensus (26 Analysts)

Metric	Value
Median Target	$152.5
High Target	$186
Low Target	$105

About Merck & Co., Inc.

Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical for various areas under the Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, Welireg, Gardasil, ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Vaxneuvance, Capvaxive, RotaTeq, Pneumovax 23, Bridion, Prevymis, Dificid, Zerbaxa, Winrevair, Adempas/ Verquvo, Ohtuvayre, Lagevrio, Isentress/Isentress HD, Delstrigo, Pifeltro, Belsomra, Januvia, and Janumet brands. The company also provides veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, such as livestock products under the Nuflor, Bovilis/Vista, Bovilis Cryptium, Banamine, Estrumate, Matrix, Resflor, Zuprevo, Revalor, Safe-Guard, M+Pac, Porcilis, Circumvent, Nobilis/Innovax, Paracox and Coccivac, Exzolt, Slice, Imvixa, Clynav, Aquavac/Norvax, Aquaflor, Flexolt brands; Allflex Livestock Intelligence solutions; and companion animal products under the Bravecto One-Month, Bravecto Injectable/Quantum, Bravecto TriUNO, Bravecto Plus, Sentinel Spectrum, Sentinel Flavor Tabs, Numelvi, Optimmune, Nobivac NXT, GilvetMab, Otomax, Mometamax, Mometamax Ultra, Posatex, Caninsulin/Vetsulin, Panacur, Safeguard, Regumate, Prestige, Scalibor/Exspot, Sure Petcare, and Home Again brands. It has development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo's deruxtecan ADC candidates; AstraZeneca PLC to co-development and co-commercialize AstraZeneca's Lynparza products for multiple cancer types; licensed to develop, manufacture and commercialize LM-299, a novel investigational PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody from LaNova; and collaboration agreement with Eisai Co., Ltd., Bayer AG, and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP, as well Moderna, Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. has strategic collaboration with Infinimmune, Inc. to discover and develop antibodies against multiple therapeutic targets. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Rahway, New Jersey.

ETF Holdings

Merck & Co., Inc. is included in 3 ETFs tracked by StockBotty.

ETF	Weight
XLV	5.24%
DIA	1.55%
SPY	0.51%

Frequently Asked Questions – Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.