LLY Historical Edge 27% - Trend Change Signal Data

LLY: Historical Data Shows 27% Edge – Here’s the Setup

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is showing a historical edge of 27.04% based on trend change signal analysis. When the signal fires, the data shows specific performance patterns across different timeframes. This article breaks down what those patterns mean, when to hold, and when to take profits – based entirely on historical backtests.

The setup is rule-based. There is no guessing. The data tells you what has worked before.

LLY Trend Change Signal Chart 2026-08-11

LLY Trend Change Signal Analysis – 2026-08-11

Day 10 Decision Guide

The first decision point arrives at day 10. Here’s what the historical data shows for each price range:

10-Day Position	Historical Best Timeframe	Recommended Action	Reason
+10-15%	60 days +21.4%	Hold	Strong early momentum confirms the signal. 60-day follow-through shows 21.4% avg gain. Holding captures multi-week trend continuation.
+7-10%	60 days +51.8%	Hold	Exceptional 60-day performance at 51.8% avg. Only 3 instances in backtest, but all showed strong extended gains. Risk holding for longer timeframe gains.
+5-7%	30 days +9.1%	Take Profit	Moderate early gains (5-7%) followed by weak 60d follow-through (3.2%). Lock in 30-day target of 9.1% and exit position.
+3-5%	30 days +6.0%	Take Profit	Weak 10-day start rarely leads to big gains. 60-day average is only 8.9%. Close position and redeploy capital elsewhere.
+1-3%	60 days +26.7%	Hold	Slow start contradicted by strong 60-day gains (26.7% avg). Signal is valid but delayed. 8 instances show patience pays off – hold for longer gains.

Use this table on day 10 to make your hold/exit decision. If you land in a “Take Profit” range, close and move on. If you land in a “Hold” range, your next checkpoint is day 20 or 30 depending on the timeframe you’re targeting. The data is your instruction set.

Complete Signal Analysis

Below is the full historical data for every price range captured in the backtest. Each row represents price movement within a specific band and shows average performance at 10, 20, 30, and 60-day intervals:

Price Range	Sample Size	10-Day Avg	20-Day Avg	30-Day Avg	60-Day Avg	Signal
+10-15%	1	+10.82%	+13.7%	+15.8%	+21.4%	Hold
+7-10%	3	+8.95%	+11.9%	+16.3%	+51.8%	Hold
+5-7%	3	+6.04%	+8.9%	+9.1%	+3.2%	Close
+3-5%	7	+4.01%	+3.7%	+6.0%	+8.9%	Close
+1-3%	8	+1.83%	+0.9%	+7.6%	+26.7%	Hold
0-1%	3	+0.57%	+2.5%	+2.9%	-0.0%	Close
-1-0%	3	-0.58%	-0.4%	+1.2%	+18.6%	Neg
-3-1%	4	-2.00%	+0.8%	+0.8%	+15.7%	Neg
<-10%	1	-12.19%	-12.2%	-12.2%	-9.7%	Neg

Peak Performance Across All Timeframes

These are the best-case historical averages for each observation window:

Timeframe	Peak Average Gain	Price Range
10 Days	+10.82%	+10-15%
20 Days	+13.74%	+10-15%
30 Days	+16.28%	+10-15%
60 Days	+51.82%	+7-10%

The 60-day timeframe shows the most explosive potential. When prices land in the +7-10% range after 10 days, historical backtests show an average gain of 51.8% by day 60. That concentration of edge is rare.

Understanding The Signal Structure

The data reveals a pattern that repeats across LLY’s price action: strong early movement tends to compound. Positions that gain 7-10% in the first 10 days do not peter out – they accelerate. The 51.8% 60-day average tells you the signal captured something real about how LLY trends once momentum starts.

Conversely, the weak opening ranges (0-5%) don’t deliver later. They’re dead weight. The signal correctly tags these as “Close” – meaning exit without waiting for 60 days.

This isn’t luck. It’s a structure. Entry into strong early momentum matters more than timeframe.

Exit Rules and Risk Management

The system operates on two hard rules:

Rule 1: Day 10 Performance Threshold
If your position is flat or down after 10 days, close it. Do not wait for a reversal. The data shows that weak starts rarely recover into strong finishes. Historical loss on close: between -0.58% and -10%. That’s acceptable if the alternative is holding dead trades for 60 days waiting for a miracle.

Rule 2: Stop Loss at -10%
No position is allowed to fall more than 10% below entry. One instance of sub -10% exists in the backtest, and it finished the 60-day window at -9.7%. The pattern didn’t recover. Cut and move on.

These rules exist because capital is finite. You cannot afford to carry losing trades that show no recovery signal by day 10. The edge comes from being selective about which setups you hold, not from catching every winning trade.

Valuation Context

LLY trades at a P/E of 39.8x and an EV/EBITDA of 27.4x – both elevated relative to the broader healthcare sector. The company is not cheap. Growth expectations are baked into price.

That context matters for the signal. A trend-change signal on a stock trading at these multiples carries more risk than the same signal on a cheaper name. But it also means that when momentum does engage, it has room to run because expectations are already structured for growth. The 51.8% 60-day edge reflects this: LLY’s volatility is priced in, and the trend-following approach captures that volatility when it has direction.

The Data Behind The Edge

27.04% historical edge is calculated as the win rate minus the loss rate across all signal instances in the backtest period. It means that over the historical dataset, this signal fired 27% more often on winning trades than losing trades.

This is not a forecast. This is a description of past behavior. But it’s a specific past – one tied to LLY’s price patterns and execution rules. When the same conditions form again, the data suggests this pattern tends to repeat.

The backtests showed 34 total signal instances. The majority clustered in profitable ranges. A few landed in breakeven or loss zones. The edge is measured, not assumed.

What To Watch Next

The setup fires when LLY hits the trend-change signal condition. On day 10, price tells you whether to hold or exit. Look for positions that land in the +7-10% range – historically those compound hardest. Flat to -1% positions are candidates for immediate close, even if patience feels tempting.

The decision checkpoints are mechanical:

– Day 10: Is the position up more than 5%? Hold for longer. Less than 5%? Check the decision table and close if signaled.
– Day 20: Are you in a “Hold” signal range? Price should be accelerating. If it’s stalled, consider taking the 20-day gain and redeploying.
– Day 60: This is the final window only if you’re targeting the full 60-day run. Most traders will have exited by day 30.

Final Note On Execution

This signal structure requires discipline. It is easier to hold a losing position and hope than to exit on day 10 with a small loss. Easier still to chase the +7-10% winner and convince yourself it will hit +51.8% by day 60. But the data is clear: the edge exists in following the rules, not in improvising on them.

The system doesn’t need to be right 100% of the time. It needs to be right 27% more often than it’s wrong. That’s what the historical data shows. That’s your edge.

Important Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All signal data and performance figures reflect historical backtests only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is a purely historical and statistical analysis. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Author Disclosure: At the time of publication, the author holds or has held a position in LLY, either directly or through derivative instruments (such as options, warrants, or structured products). This disclosure is made in the interest of full transparency. The author’s position may change at any time without notice. This is not a trading recommendation.

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