Index Closes 19.42 After 12.91% Jump, Curve Stays in Contango

Last updated: October 31, 2026

VIX Index term structure

VIX jumped 12.91% in the last session, closing at 19.42. That is a 2.22 point gain from 17.20, the largest move across the five sessions shown. The close still sits inside the Normal zone, but the futures curve is behaving differently from the index curve.

VIX Close with Mean Median Mode October 31, 2026

VIX Close with Mean, Median and Mode since 1990 – October 30, 2026

Where the VIX Stands

Metric Value
VIX close (Oct 30) 19.42
Change, last session +2.22 (+12.9%)
Change, 5 sessions -0.03 (-0.2%) from 19.45
Zone Normal (15 to 20)
Mean / median since 1990 19.42 / 17.57
1-year percentile 78%

Normal zone, between 15 and 20. Since 1990 the mean also sits at 19.42, so this close lands right on the long-run average. The median is 17.57, which leaves the index 1.85 points above a typical session.

Over the last year, 78% of sessions closed at or below this level. That puts the reading in the upper fifth of the one-year distribution, above most of the year but still under the 20 line.

New to the VIX? Our complete VIX guide explains what the index measures and how VX futures work.

VIX Term Structure: Index Curve

Index Level vs VIX Since 26.10.
VIX9D 19.25 -0.17 +1.33
VIX 19.42 – +1.03
VIX3M 20.78 +1.36 +0.84
VIX6M 22.20 +2.78 +0.57
VIX1Y 22.80 +3.38 +0.21
VIX Index Term Structure October 31, 2026

VIX Index Curve (VIX9D to VIX1Y) – Last 5 Sessions

Index curve is in contango, with every tenor higher than the one before it. VIX9D sits at 19.25, VIX at 19.42, VIX3M at 20.78, VIX6M at 22.20 and VIX1Y at 22.80. The VIX/VIX3M ratio is 0.935, which is a normal upward slope.

VIX1Y minus VIX9D has narrowed to 3.55 from 4.67 four sessions earlier. The slope is still upward, but the gap at the long end has come in, and the curve is flatter than it was.

VX Futures Curve

Contract Level vs VIX Change
Nov 20.36 +0.94 +2.21
Dec 19.79 +0.37 +1.39
Jan 20.26 +0.84 +0.89
Feb 20.50 +1.08 +0.63
Mar 20.60 +1.18 +0.46
Apr 20.90 +1.48 +0.39
VX Futures Curve October 31, 2026

VX Futures Term Structure – Last 5 Sessions

VX futures curve is not in full contango. November trades at 20.36, 0.94 above VIX, while December dips to 19.79 before the curve climbs again to 20.90 in April. November also gained the most in the last session, up 2.21, and the gains shrink with each later expiry.

The Last Five Sessions

Session VIX Change
Oct 30 19.42 +2.22 (+12.9%)
Oct 29 17.20 +0.29 (+1.7%)
Oct 28 16.91 -0.61 (-3.5%)
Oct 27 17.52 -0.87 (-4.7%)
Oct 26 18.39 -1.06 (-5.4%)

Over the last five sessions the close went 18.39, 17.52, 16.91, 17.20, 19.42. Three straight declines took the index to 16.91, and the last two sessions have both been higher. The streak stands at two up, and the five-session change is only -0.03 points, so the week ended close to where it began.

How Common Is This VIX Level

Window Percentile Days at 19-20 Range
1 year 78% 20 of 252 13.47 – 31.05
6 months 94% 7 of 132 14.21 – 22.22
VIX Close Distribution 1 Year October 31, 2026

VIX Close Distribution – Last 12 Months

VIX Close Distribution 6 Months October 31, 2026

VIX Close Distribution – Last 6 Months

Across six months, 94% of sessions closed at or below 19.42, so the level sits near the top of the recent range. The 19-20 band held 20 sessions over the year and 7 over six months. The most common 1-point band in the year is 16-17, with 47 sessions.

The last close at or above 20 came at 20.66, 66 sessions ago. The last close below 15 was 14.84, 15 sessions ago, so every close since then has stayed between 15 and 20. I find that 66-session gap more telling than the percentiles.

What to Watch Next

Next session, watch whether the index holds above 19.42 or gives back ground toward 17.20, the prior close. A close back below 17.20 would undo the two-session rise and put the 16.91 low of the last five sessions back in view. A close above 20 would be the first since 66 sessions ago and would bring the index toward the 20.36 November future.

Browse our daily VIX reports to follow how the curve and the level develop.

Important Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All data is historical and statistical. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Author Disclosure: The author may hold or has held positions in VIX-related instruments directly or through derivative constructs at the time of publication. This is not a trading recommendation.

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