SPY – State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

ETF

Large Blend | Inception: 1993-01-22

SPY Supertrend Chart

StockBotty Supertrend Chart SPY Chart

Quick Stats

Trend Signal
$755.72
Last Close
Official EOD price – basis for all calculations
▼ Short
Swing Trend
Moving average structure confirms downtrend – bears in control
+1.85%
Signal Edge
Slim positive edge across 5 signals – treat with caution
52.9
Trend Strength (ADX)
Strong trend – directional signals reliable
Options Signals
91%
IV-Rank (52w)
Options are historically expensive – premium selling favored
38% / 62%
Call / Put Flow
Bearish positioning – put premium dominates options flow
Last Trendchange Signal
06.07.26
Date
Signal entry date
$751.28
Entry Price
Closing price at signal date
12d
Days Held
Trading days since signal
-1.06%
+10d
Return after 10 trading days
-1.74%
+20d
Return after 20 trading days
-1.74%
+30d
Return after 30 trading days
-1.74%
+60d
Return after 60 trading days

Trend Overview

Breakout – Downside Composite Score: +1 / 7

SPY has just broken out of a 0-day volatility compression to the downside. Compressions of this length tend to resolve with a sustained directional move rather than a brief spike. Sellers have taken control out of the compression. The path of least resistance is now lower until a clear reclaim is confirmed.

What to watch

Avoid catching a falling knife. Wait for stabilisation and a reclaim of the breakout level before considering any long exposure.

Options Signal Highlight

SPY Price Chart

StockBotty Price Chart SPY Chart

Technical Trend Analysis

As of 30.10.2026  ·  Close: $755.72  ·  ATR14: $1.02

Breakout – Downside Composite Score: +1 / 7

SPY has just broken out of a 0-day volatility compression to the downside. Compressions of this length tend to resolve with a sustained directional move rather than a brief spike. Sellers have taken control out of the compression. The path of least resistance is now lower until a clear reclaim is confirmed.

What to watch

Avoid catching a falling knife. Wait for stabilisation and a reclaim of the breakout level before considering any long exposure.

Indicator Signal Detail
Swing Trend ▼ Short Primary directional bias
Momentum ▼ Down · -10d Strength: -0.14 – Fading
Trend Strength (ADX) 52.9 – Strong ADX38: 22.5
Volatility (HV30) 10.5% – Calm HV90: 11.3% | HV180: 13.1%
Vola Compression Breakout – Downside Prior compression: 0d
MA Structure Golden Cross ✓ Stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack
EMA21 Distance -1.54 ATR ↑ EMA21: $764.43
GD200 Extension 3.6 ATR – Normal GD20: -1.9 | GD50: -1.5 | GD100: -0.5
🟡 Downside Momentum Easing
Downward momentum has run -10 days but strength is decreasing (-0.14). The move may be exhausting.
💪 Trend Strength – ADX14: 52.9 (Strong)
A strong and well-defined trend. ADX38: 22.5. Trend-following has clear edge here.
🔻 Volatility Calm
HV30: 10.5% | HV90: 11.3% | HV180: 13.1%. Short-term vol is below its 90-day average. Calmer conditions favour tighter setups.
💥 Compression Breakout – Downside
A 0-day compression was followed by a downside breakout. Watch for volume confirmation and follow-through.
⭐ Golden Cross – Long-term Bullish
Golden Cross in place. GD50 $767.49 above GD200 $728.85 by 5.30%. Long-term structure is bullish. MA stack: Fully aligned – bullish stack.
⚡ EMA21 – Fresh Cross
Price has just crossed the 21-day EMA at $764.43, now trading below. Often marks a near-term directional shift.
📐 Key Price Levels & ATR Distance
GD20: $770.47 (-1.9 ATR) | GD50: $767.49 (-1.5 ATR) | GD100: $759.22 (-0.5 ATR) | GD200: $728.85 (3.6 ATR). ATR14: $1.02.

Monthly Performance History

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
2010 -5.24 1.54 4.57 0.86 -9.12 -4.01 7.31 -6.61 5.23 3.39 -0.03 3.92 10.96
2011 1.28 1.84 1.27 2.46 -0.97 0.08 -3.43 -5.09 -6.44 14.16 2.45 0.42 -1.22
2012 3.00 3.43 2.24 -1.39 -6.59 6.20 0.88 2.59 2.08 -2.08 -0.48 0.68 11.69
2013 2.49 0.24 3.00 2.33 3.27 -2.39 4.56 -4.11 2.20 3.81 2.72 2.30 26.45
2014 -2.59 6.96 1.10 0.03 2.31 1.46 -2.00 4.26 -1.79 3.76 2.69 -0.11 12.37
2015 -2.91 4.33 -2.62 1.34 0.20 -2.70 1.45 -5.78 -0.07 T
8.22
-0.81 -3.23 -0.76
2016 -3.63 T
-0.05
3.74 -0.29 T
0.90
-0.38 3.43 0.20 -0.50 -1.50 T
4.44
1.80 11.20
2017 1.02 3.89 -1.68 T
1.17
1.16 -0.64 1.88 0.07 1.37 1.91 2.92 0.91 18.48
2018 4.89 T
-3.53
T
-1.70
2.73 T
2.25
-0.85 3.48 3.36 0.31 -7.23 0.78 T
-10.52
-7.01
2019 T
7.89
3.19 0.73 2.87 -5.67 T
6.71
0.60 -0.81 T
2.07
3.44 2.67 3.28 28.65
2020 -0.97 -8.60 -16.61 T
18.01
7.61 0.92 5.15 6.24 -5.02 T
-3.12
9.65 2.15 15.09
2021 0.35 1.10 1.73 4.17 0.44 2.00 1.88 3.19 -5.02 T
5.76
-0.97 5.43 28.79
2022 -5.82 -3.60 T
5.04
-9.03 -0.37 -7.90 T
8.07
-3.80 -9.90 5.35 6.02 -6.12 -19.95
2023 T
6.74
-3.54 T
3.71
1.21 0.56 5.09 3.15 -1.34 T
-5.25
-2.13 T
7.98
3.53 24.81
2024 2.16 3.86 1.99 -3.86 T
5.40
3.11 1.00 T
3.81
3.93 0.00 5.52 -2.91 24.00
2025 T
2.94
-0.60 -4.18 T
-1.15
5.54 4.24 2.34 3.75 4.05 2.04 0.01 T
0.24
16.64
2026 1.29 -1.35 -5.25 T
9.68
4.97 -1.55 T
0.17
1.24 0.11 -1.08 10.62

T A T badge marks a Trendchange signal in that month. Hover for entry price.

SPY - Trendchange Chart

StockBotty Trendchange SPY Chart

Trendchange Signal History

The last 10 Trendchange signals for SPY:

Date Entry Price Days Held +10d +20d +30d +60d
06.07.26 $751.28 12d -1.06% -1.74% -1.74% -1.74%
10.04.26 $679.46 59d +4.27% +7.67% +9.31% +8.55%
01.12.25 $680.27 37d +0.22% +1.11% +1.98% +1.67%
29.04.25 $554.32 77d +5.17% +6.64% +8.8% +19.61%
22.01.25 $606.44 14d -0.77% +1.07% -1.07% -1.07%
19.08.24 $559.61 16d +0.73% -3.44% -3.44% -3.44%
08.05.24 $517.19 57d +2.74% +3.38% +5.76% +7.07%
08.11.23 $437.25 75d +3.66% +4% +7.09% +18.77%
12.09.23 $445.99 9d -0.59% -0.59% -0.59% +0%
05.09.23 $449.24 1d +0% +0% +0% +0%

Signal Statistics - Historical Edge

Calculated edge for SPY: 1.85%

Range N 10d 20d 30d 60d Signal
5-7% 5 +5.29% +5.29% +5.99% +8.68% Close
3-5% 12 +3.88% +4.67% +5.43% +5.88% Hold
1-3% 27 +1.98% +2.68% +3.53% +4.23% Hold
0-1% 22 +0.57% +0.71% +0.64% +1.57% Close
-1-0% 14 -0.56% -0.63% -0.61% -0.56% Neg
-3-1% 20 -1.76% -1.32% -0.95% -0.1% Neg
-5-3% 6 -3.73% -2.01% -2.01% -1.45% Neg
Exit Rules: Stoploss: -10% | Close if below 1% after 10 days

Signal data as of October 30, 2026

HIGH ALERT ● Neutral Strength: 13

Options Metrics

IV-Rank (52w)
91%
Top 20% of the past 52 weeks – options are historically expensive. Conditions favor premium sellers (Short Put, Iron Condor).
Call / Put Flow
38% / 62%
More than 60% of options premium is flowing into puts. This indicates net bearish positioning by market participants.
GEX (Mio.)
-834,048,738.4
Negative GEX: market makers are short gamma. They sell dips and buy rallies, which amplifies moves and increases volatility.
GEX Flip Strike
$781.82 · 3.4%
The GEX flip strike is the price level where dealer gamma exposure shifts from positive to negative. A break through this level often accelerates the move.
Max Pain
$769.00 · 1.7%
Max Pain is the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless. As expiration approaches, price often gravitates toward this level due to dealer hedging flows.
Spot Price
$756.35
Last traded price at signal calculation time

Gamma Exposure Timeline

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, and unusual activity across weekly and monthly expirations, plotted around the current spot price.

SPY GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Key GEX levels, Max Pain, Anchor, Ceiling and unusual activity across 14-30 DTE, plotted around the current spot price.

SPY GEX timeline showing put/call gamma pins, max pain and flip strike

Put and call pins mark strikes where dealer gamma exposure concentrates. The GEX flip strike is where dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing (positive gamma) to amplifying (negative gamma) price moves. Max Pain is the strike where the most options expire worthless. Dashed markers flag unusual options activity. Learn how to use these signals in our options strategy guides →

Strategy Setups – You Decide

Based on current options data, 2 setups match the current conditions. Each strategy has different risk/reward characteristics – the final decision is always yours.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 91% with bearish flow (38% calls) and negative GEX – selling call premium into elevated vol with directional and structural support.

Advantages
✓ Collects premium in a high-IV environment, profits from sideways or bearish movement
✓ Works well when negative GEX creates structural headwind for rallies
✓ Covered call variant generates income against an existing long stock position
Risks
✕ Theoretically unlimited loss if the stock surges unexpectedly
✕ A single strong bullish catalyst can wipe out months of collected premium
✕ Requires margin and active monitoring
▶ FAQ: Short Call
What is a Short Call strategy?

A Short Call involves selling a call option and collecting the premium. The seller profits if the underlying stays below the strike price at expiration. It expresses a neutral to bearish view. Uncovered short calls carry theoretically unlimited risk if the stock rises sharply.

When is a Short Call appropriate?

A Short Call makes sense when IV is elevated, the trader is neutral to bearish, and the underlying shows weak or bearish flow. It is most commonly used as a covered call - selling calls against an existing long stock position to generate income.

What does negative GEX mean for a Short Call?

Negative Gamma Exposure means market makers are short gamma and must sell as prices rise, amplifying downside moves. For a Short Call trader, negative GEX provides a structural headwind to the upside - dealers are not supporting rallies, which helps the short call stay out of the money.

Profit Loss $0 Stock Price →
Why this fits today

IV-Rank at 91% – selling premium on both sides captures elevated vol without a strong directional view. The defined-risk structure suits the current high-IV environment.

Advantages
✓ Profits from time decay on both sides – no need to pick a direction
✓ Defined maximum risk: loss is always capped at the spread width
✓ Benefits from IV contraction (vol crush) after the trade is placed
Risks
✕ Maximum profit is limited to the net premium collected
✕ A large move in either direction results in maximum loss on one side
✕ Requires the underlying to stay within a specific price range
▶ FAQ: Iron Condor
What is an Iron Condor?

An Iron Condor combines a short put spread and a short call spread on the same underlying. The trader collects premium from both sides and profits if the underlying stays between the two short strikes at expiration. It is a defined-risk, range-bound strategy suited to high IV environments.

When does an Iron Condor work best?

Iron Condors excel when IV is high, the underlying is range-bound or consolidating, and flow is neutral. High IV-Rank increases the premium collected on both spreads, improving the risk/reward of the trade.

What is the maximum risk on an Iron Condor?

The maximum loss equals the width of the wider spread minus the net premium received. For example, if the spreads are $5 wide and you collect $1.50 net premium, the max loss is $3.50 per spread.

How does IV crush benefit an Iron Condor?

IV crush refers to the rapid decline in implied volatility after a catalyst. If an Iron Condor is placed before a high-IV event and IV drops afterward, both options lose value quickly - benefiting the premium seller. Time decay also works in favor of the Iron Condor seller.

All setups above are personal trade journal observations derived from options flow data. This is not financial advice. The decision to trade, and which strategy to use, is entirely yours.

View full options flow data and historical signals on the Options Flow Analysis Overview →

About State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

The trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the “Portfolio”), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

Fund Overview

MetricValue
Assets under Management$698.27 B
Expense Ratio0.09%
Dividend Yield1.03%
Portfolio Turnover3%
YTD Return66.41%
3-Year Return18.52%
5-Year Return11.88%

Sector Allocation

Sector Weight
Information Technology 33%
Financials 10.7%
Communication Services 10.3%
Consumer Discretionary 10%
Healthcare 9.3%
Industrials 9.1%
Consumer Staples 5.1%
Energy 4%
Utilities 2.5%
Materials 1.9%

Top 10 Holdings

Symbol Company Weight
NVDA NVIDIA CORP 7.57%
AAPL APPLE INC 6.56%
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP 4.92%
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 3.6%
GOOGL ALPHABET INC CLASS A 3%
AVGO BROADCOM INC 2.68%
GOOG ALPHABET INC CLASS C 2.4%
META META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A 2.3%
TSLA TESLA INC 1.91%
BRK-B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CLASS B 1.56%

Frequently Asked Questions – State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)

Disclaimer: All trade history on this page reflects the author's personal trading activity only. This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See our full Disclaimer.